May 15th., 2004

The Colombian “Paramilitary”

• A brigade of so-called Colombian paramilitary is captured in a neighborhood of the periphery of Caracas.

• According to the government, they were going to attack Armed Forces facilities.

• The Minister of Defense said that they were linked to Colombian United Self-Defense.

• Chávez claimed their objective was to murder him.

• Incoherencies in the official version.

• A wave of raids.

• The stage view gained validity when government spokespeople offered a swap with Colombia of detained “paramilitary”.

• Repressive measures reached politicians, active military, newspeople, entrepreneurs.

• Chávez claims that the invasion of Venezuela was planned from the U. S. and Colombia.

• He made Gen. James Hill –Chief of The Southern Command of the U. S. Army- responsible:  “He knew of the plan.”

• Measures vs. the U. S. Military Mission.

• A state of exception is being considered by the government.

• Chavistas approve in the National Assembly the revoking of nationality of Venezuelan newspeople, both born or longtime nationalized.

• An attempt to involve Gustavo Cisneros in the alleged conspiracy.

• The Cisneros family ranch was raided.  He was included among the “foreigners” whose nationality should be revoked.

• OAS and Carter Center representatives are threatened with expulsion.

• Gaviria and Carter will be present in the challenges process.

• Officialdom disgust upon hearing the announcement from OAS and Carter Center of their fast-tallying to obtain information corroborating results of judicial challenges.

• Our forecast:  July and August to be explosive and extremely sensitive.

The purpose of this report is fully met by an objective account of the national pulse during the turbulent week now ending.  As for almost anyone else, Sundays are days to stay in bed for most of the morning.  Few were those on Sunday the 9^th , who could know about the news in State TV at the break of dawn:  a Colombian paramilitary brigade had been captured in a neighborhood in the periphery of the capital when it was about to attack a military site.  Minutes following the official broadcast, private TV and the Minister of Defense arrived (garbed in trousers and fleece).  He said that the detainees were linked to Colombia’s self-defense units  and that they were part of a terrorist plot promoted by opposition leaders and dissident military.

New elements became known when the radio electronic media got orders to join Aló Presidente being broadcast by Chávez from his native Barinas:   he affirmed that the goal of the conspiracy was to murder him; that Cuban exiles and DCG were behind it.  He also charged that private TV channels “attempt to twist facts, because they are committed to “golpismo”:  he pointed to them as enemies of the people.”  He included CNN in the list of conspirators.

On the 9^th , as well, challenges to the official version began.  Gen. Lucas Rincón –Minister of Interior- provoked a national burst of laughter when he said that a trace of the conspiracy were the “bits of Croissant” found in the ranch where the alleged paramilitary were being trained.  Rincon’s “gaffe” were contradictions and incoherencies in the official version; private TV videos showing the paramilitary without weapons when detained; videos from the area administrative police showing that it was their officers who detected the alleged paramilitary and above all, the insistence in linking the events to the DCG:  all of above swiftly created a thick cloud of doubts.

Sunday evening, the DCG protested the President’s charges vs. them without grounds and requested a serious inquiry allowing the country to know the truth.

“Venezuela has a right to ask if it is not a staged scenario to divert the RR effort or to stop it with a so-called issue affecting domestic peace, as an excuse to call for a state of exemption.”

Doubts and confusion increased on Monday the 10^th.  A wave of searches by political and military intelligence took place, with force deployment, attacks on newspeople attempting to cover events and a sustained harassment campaign in official radio and TV stations:  these charged opposition governors and mayors as conspiracy leaders while announcing indictments against them.

The staging view gained credence as government officials proposed a swap with Colombia regarding the detained paramilitary and Pedro Carmona who was granted asylum two years ago.  The DCG issued another statement showing incongruence in  government versions.  “Each hour that goes by, official versions crumble and numerous questions remain which the government must answer with credible explanations.”

On Tuesday the 11^th , the regime moved from threats to facts.  Repressive measures reached politicians, active military, newspeople, entrepreneurs, social and regional leaders.  An all out offensive said official spokespeople.  An escalade in persecution, in the application of a state terrorist policy, charged the opposition.  Henrique Capriles –an opposition mayor-was detained and charged with felonies which entail a long jail sentence.

COLOMBIA AND THE U. S. PLANNED THE INVASION

On Wednesday the 12^th , President Chávez installed the National Defense Council (CODENA), a body inspired in the National Security Doctrine proposed by militarism in the Southern Cone in the past century.  Venezuela has been invaded it said, while adding that everything was prepared by the opposition in a network of international connections.  “I harbor no doubts that Venezuela’s invasion was planned from the U. S. and Colombia.  He made Gen. James Hill –Chief of The Southern Command- responsible ‘who knew about the plan,’.  He voiced his pleasure about the Colombian government criticism of events in Venezuela, “but we have enough elements to doubt the good faith of Colombian intelligence services and of sectors of Colombian Armed Forces.  It calls my attention that almost 100 % of these terrorists are Colombian Army reservists and the second in command of this irregular group, Comandante Cabezas is a professional soldier of the Colombian Army.”

That very day, the American Ambassador announced the government had requested the  U. S. military mission to evacuate the offices –that for the past 50 years it had at its disposal in Armed Forces facilities.-  Opposition people have been claiming that the alleged invasion, violent climate, domestic disturbances, and severe tensions with the U. S. and Colombia seek the goal of stopping the recall (RR) through the announcement of a state of exception.  In the installing of CODENA, deputy Néstor León –Chair of the Defense Committee in the National Assembly (NA)- did not discard said possibility.  “In view of  the issue of National Security, one of the options under consideration is to declare a state of exception.”

TWO IMPACTING BITS OF NEWS

On Thursday the 13^th , there were two front page bits of news within the suspense / surprise film lived by Venezuela lately.  The first, a decision by the Chavista majority in the NA:  to request the revoking of nationality for three opposition newspeople –one a Spaniards child born in Venezuela; another born in Spain and a third one born in Uruguay- all three naturalized for many years.  Among the “revoked,” Marta Colomina who gave her life to teaching.  There are also thousands of Venezuelans born in Europe who decided to serve the country and root themselves here for life.  Newswoman Colomina was the victim –last year- of a terrorist attempt of which she could barely escape alive.  The Inter American Court of Human Rights ordered protection measures in her behalf which the government has refused to comply with.

Reservations about the official account of the “invasion” have increased with the attempt to involve Gustavo Cisneros Rendiles, –owner of Venevisión-, one of the private TV channels which been target of the most harassment from the regime.  A family coffee plantation was raided while spreading the rumor that it was used to train the paramilitary.  Cisneros was included by Chavista assemblypeople among the “foreigners” whose nationality should be stripped.  Cisneros is Caracas born.  His father, of Cuban origins, was a successful entrepreneur who became naturalized shortly after coming to Venezuela.  Even more, the Rendiles have been in Venezuela for generations.  In the so-called alternative media and in Chavista web sites it is published that one of the objectives of the revolution is to place the means the oligarchy uses to plot, at the service of the people.

Anyway, the NA request is another chapter in the curious chauvinism of the regime.  The President boasts about the overwhelming Cuban Fidelista presence in Venezuelan life, but Chavismo deems “foreigner” the offspring of a Cuban who refuses to place his TV station at the service of the regime.

The other news on 13 Thursday dealt with The OAS and The Carter Center:  its people were threatened with expulsion from the country.  The regime continues to fear the RR.  Precisely, one of the strongest suspicions over the mysterious “invasion” is that on the eve of the announcement, the opposition launched a national mobilization of signees in which a million citizens took part.  According to perceptions of Súmate and DCG, the event allowed to prove that, beyond the invalidation and challenge of the signatures dictated by the NEC, the national quorum is guaranteed.  In the Aló President of 9 Sunday, Chávez stated that the mobilization had failed and there were no signatures for the calling pf the RR.  Chavista uncertainties openly appear in the new NEC directives:  a) if the minutes regarding the constitutional challenges are not “impeccably” elaborated, the ratifying signatures in them shall be voided; b) those who have expressed “regret” for having signed requesting the RR will be able to withdraw their signatures; c) the Data Base delivered to the DCG will not be audited.

NEW REALITY AND FORECAST

The OAS and The Carter Center issued a joint statement warning that the exclusion of the “regretted” is contrary to the norm of the NEC proper and vs. all international standards.  They rejected pressures on the signees to force them into modifying the expression of their political will (layoffs in civil service; denial of public services or the right to bid for State projects).  In the statement they announce that Gaviria and Carter will be present during the challenge process.  What most bothered the regime was that the joint mission said it shall carry out a “fast tallying” towards a statistical projection of the results offered by the mission “an independent information in order to corroborate official results.”

The reaction by the regime was swift, ireful and wild:  “If they don’t retract we shall have to reconsider they stay in the country.  They are violating the country’s sovereignty, meddling into matters beyond their competence.” said Jorge Rodríguez, top spokesperson in the NEC:  he spewed the authentic chauvinism of “Bolivarians”:  I will not sit down again with foreign delegates.  I rather do so with the DCG who are-at least-Venezuelans.”  With the passing of the Supreme Court Act, allowing the absolute control of the judiciary and the launching of CODANE –a supra power in any case- as everything can be maliciously linked to national security:  this clearly shows that a new political reality is being created in Venezuela.

Our forecast:  strong domestic and international pressures to hold the RR.  The regime will underscore national and international confrontation.  Repression and charges vs. the opposition conniving with terrorist golpismo will increase.  New and more serious attacks on leaders of The Catholic Church.  The “invasion” will be used for a new purge within the Armed Forces.  In the scenario of judicial challenges –with or without opposition participation- tensions will reach high decibels.  July and August are explosive and of great sensitivity, especially, if Chávez manages to avoid the RR.