May 31st., 2004

Now or Never!

• The last chance for Venezuelans to attempt to peacefully get rid of Chávez; also the last hurdle for Chávez to rule at will.

• Gaviria arrived and gave the same speech of a tear ago:  “Venezuelan public life is extremely polarized.”

• Voters called to the challenges gave an extraordinary witnessing of courage and civility.

• Physical violence; detention of activists and shameless bribes as pressure tools for signees to recant.

• Offices of COPEI and AD were raided with wounded and material damages resulting.

• The opposition decries gross maneuvers to take the blame for frauds the government has been carrying out.

• ON NOON Sunday, constitutional requirements were met to call the revoking referendum.

• Displeasure by Chávez about the Guadalajara Summit:  his colleagues gave him the cold shoulder.  Few accepted bilateral meetings.

• He wanted to talk to Lula.  He was told it was not possible because the President had a heavy agenda.

• On his way to Mexico, he made a stop in La Habana to chat with Castro.  On his way back, he made another stop in the island.

• Chávez assured Carter that he is willing to go to a recall if the challenges succeed.

• What he told Carter, he repeated to Gaviria.

• Carter and Gaviria jointly discarded the alleged fraud charged by officialdom.

• Now or never is also valid for Chávez:  a victory in the challenges  would make his power total.

• According to minutes in the hands of DCG, OAS and Carter Center, the opposition met the constitutional quorum and got an excess of 139,000 signatures.

• What will happen at the OAS Assembly if results are ignored? 

Now or never!  This was the battle cry of the opposition while calling for the “challenges” of the signatures requesting the recall of the presidential mandate (RR).  They are somewhat right.  The “challenges” are the last chance for Venezuelans to attempt to get rid of Chávez peacefully.  They are also the last hurdle for Chávez in his project to rule without a fixed end date.

A year ago, The OAS, The Carter Center and UNDP, with vigorous support of the international community, reached the accord to activate the RR.  On that May 29th , César Gaviria said that the accord and the possibility of the recall –which he considered possible towards the end of 2003- were the solution recommended by the Permanent Council due to the extreme polarization perceived in public life.  This May 28th he arrived in Caracas to observe in situ the “challenges.” He had to repeat the same speech:  we hope that through this process Venezuelans may find an electoral solution to end the serious political conflict they are mired in.  We hope it may be the realization of the signed accord of May 29th last year.

The stubbornness by Venezuelans to walk the electoral path is obvious.  In February 2003, two million citizens requested the consultive referendum.  The NEC then, found constitutional demands had been met and was ready to call it.  The regime moved its followers at the SC who dictated the NEC was not able to call for elections.  In August that year –halfway into Chávez’s term- three million voters asked for the RR.  The new NEC –under Chavista control- decided the signatures were gathered extemporaneously.  It established a rigorous mechanism and twisted norms for signature recollection.  After these were fulfilled by an opposition accepting the challenge, three and a half signatures were gathered.  The NEC dictated new norms, based in which it only acknowledged 55 % as valid, while it invalidated 11 % and referred 34 % to challenges. 

The electorate called to challenges have just given an extraordinary witnessing of civility and courage.  The regime elaborated a list of public employees and people susceptible to government pressure who signed requesting the RR.  Under threat of being fired, they were pressured to express regret and to ask for the exclusion of their signatures.

REGIME PRESSURES

Payments were held from those signing beneficiaries of the so-called “Missions” –instruments to distribute money among the unemployed, military reservists, students, shopkeepers, small entrepreneurs, etc.- while promising to keep benefits for them if they took part in the challenges to attest that they recanted their previous action.  There were pressures galore:  physical violence; detention of activists; faceless bribes close to polling centers offering money to signees for their exclusion.  On the second day violence increased, by Red Beret Brigades vs. the facilities housing the centers.

On May 28, the first day of the challenges, there were 300 charges vs. some members of the Plan República.  Newspeople witness in their cameras and TV footage the assaults vs. those showing a willingness to ratify their signatures.  In spite of charges, this sort of behavior was greater on the second day.

On the third day, it was obvious that officialdom was unwilling to accept a defeat.  Political police, without a warrant violently raided the offices of COPEI and AD (Christian Democratic and Social Democratic Parties).  Government TV announced that in said offices, fake ID cards, weapons and explosives had been found.  Officialdom leaders said evidence was sought of a rebellion plotted by the opposition due to its failure in the challenges process.  Before the NEC they requested an auditing of the positive signatures alleging evidence of a massive fraud with fake electoral ballots.  The NEC President called a press conference ordering electoral officials to carefully examine ID Cards.  NEC staff underscored the so-called “Morrocoy Operation” – the maneuver to impose long waiting time to people present to ratify-.

The charge of phony ID Cards was clumsy, as only the government has the equipment and materials to make them, not to say, that for months government officials had gone countrywide offering ID Cards to those voicing support of the President.  Some reporters covering official charges before the NEC provoked their ire by saying that in the NEC vicinity, the military were carrying out an “operative” delivering  “express Ids”-the petitioner gives his identity information without being asked to offer any documentation and the ID is swiftly issued.

Throughout the whole challenges process the media and foreign observers verified the most varied of tricks to avoid or make difficult the ratification of signatures.  The will to participate was impressive as beyond said obstacles, people overcame the inconvenience of on-going rain for three days nationwide.

Sunday afternoon those called to challenge completed the magic number:  20% of the electoral registry.  The regime failed in reaching what it called its objective, namely, that the majority of those called to vote in the challenge process would request the exclusion of signatures.  The information was almost simultaneously in the hands of NEC, Súmate and DCG.  The constitutional requirements had been met to activate the recall of Chávez’s mandate.

GUADALAJARA’S SUMMIT

The Summit in Guadalajara was not pleasant for Chávez.  He failed in the effort to include in the document a mention of his social programs.  His colleagues from America and Europe –attending the Summit- gave him a cold shoulder.  Chavista Ambassadors had been requesting bilateral meetings:  only Bolivia, Antigua and Trinidad were willing.  Central American Presidents agreed on a joint meeting to speak about the problem of high oil prices in their economies and about their petition to impart some flexibility on the San José Accord.  President José Rodríguez Zapatero was the only one who-apparently- pleased him:  at least, if his statements on the birth of a new Spain and that now he has a friend in Madrid, not subject to the dictates of the empire (as it was with his predecessor) hold any water.

Lula was the one causing him the greatest displeasure.  He wished to discuss the message of previous days by Ambassador De Souza Gomes –in O Estado de Sao Paulo-(Thursday 27th ): Planalto reserves about Chávez’s decision to train civilian milicias and the concern on the uncertainties regarding the RR.  Brazilians told him that the meeting with Lula was not possible due to “the President’s heavy agenda.”

Wednesday, on his way to Mexico, he spoke with Fidel Castro.  In Guadalajara, he was seen with Pérez Roque –Cuban Foreign Minister- for most of the time.  Media accredited at the Summit was called to a press conference on Saturday morning.  Friday afternoon it was called off.  That evening, his Airbus took off  to  La Habana together with Pérez Roque.  He arrived at Maiquetía Airport on Saturday evening.  On Sunday, after meeting with Carter, he said that his interview with Castro had been very lengthily:  “Fidel talks a lot and I do too.”

THE PRESENCE OF CARTER AND GAVIRIA

Sunday noon, when he met with Carter, Chávez already knew that the opposition had enough signatures to activate the RR.  Surely, Carter also knew.  The joint mission OAS-CARTER was carrying out a fast-count program with highly-qualified experts to achieve a statistical profile with a minimal margin of error.

The statement by Carter upon leaving Miraflores surprised reporters awaiting him.  According to The Nobel Peace Prize, Chávez assured him that “if the challenges are successful, he is totally willing to participate in the RR.”   The surprise grew when they saw a smiling and cordial President appearing at one of the doors of the Presidential Palace.  “If the NEC says that the opposition reached the necessary signatures, I’ll happily be part of a recall.”  Before a stunned group of newspeople, he added:  “If they win, I leave.” Minutes later César Gaviria arrived, equally surprised before Chávez’s demeanor.  The OAS Secretary expected a tormented meeting in which a possible Chávez request would be the exit of his Chief of Staff –as already Rangel and the leaders of the MVR had done-.  In the interview, neither Jaramillo’s, nor Patricio Carvacho’s (OAS Representative in Venezuela) names were mentioned:  the latter had also been charged of sinful conniving with the opposition.  He repeated to Gaviria what he had told Carter while adding that the first interested in having the NEC publish results without delay.  Carter and Gaviria in a joint statement discarded the alleged fraud:  “the challenges satisfactorily concluded.  Problems about the authenticity of some Ids are technical ones.”

The now or never is also valid for Chávez.  Success in the challenges rounded up his total power structure.  The NEC placed a group of opposition parliamentarians against the firing squad by saying they could be recalled.  If this is so,  the National Assembly would give less problems in the job of clothing the regime with a robe of legality while muzzling the media.  The Supreme Court Act guarantees him the control of the whole of the judiciary.  Popular militias are a tool of authenticity for the armed revolution.  But the defeat in the challenges opens doors to the RR, where Chávez has a well-founded fear of another even more crushing debacle.

Precisely, this is why Venezuela is entering stormy times.  Monday’s figures at noon were:  760,000 ratified signatures; hiking the total of valid ones to 2,575,000.  The necessary minimum for the RR is 2,436,000.  Thus, there are 139,000 more than needed.  These are the figures in the closing minutes of the three days of the challenges process.  Both the DCG and the OAS-Carter Mission have copies.  To ignore these results would be costly to Chávez.  But it would be stupid to forget he is a psychopath obsessed by power.  Or that the military ring around him  may refuse to acknowledge the results together with the powerful mafias scandalously enriched under the shadow of Miraflores.  Above all, it cannot be forgotten that there a determining opinion beyond our national borders.  Will Castro accept to risk Venezuela’s support and everything it means for the Cuban Revolution guaranteed by Chávez?

The OAS General Assembly –to be installed in Quito on 6 June- proposes the other big question:  If  results of the challenges are ignored, what may be the OAS reaction, taking into account that its General Secretary is the most qualified witness –for the second time- of Venezuelans heroic sampling of their commitment to journey the path of democracy as a solution to the crisis?

In our last report we said that there is a new political reality in-the-making in Venezuela.  Its sign depends on events in the dramatic days forthcoming.  May God allow them not to be tragic.