July 30th., 2004

The Recall Around the Corner?

Abstract:

• Serious delays in the RR chronogram.

• Big problems in the Electoral Registry.

• Delays make bring about a postponement.

• The RR is a judgment of Chávez’s regime, which would lose said character if postpone.

• Facts that obscure transparency.

• Print-tracking machines may make expire the established timetable to vote.  This would make them a tool to facilitate the postponement of the RR on 15 August proper.

• The calling of the RR on the scheduled date may only be maintained while ignoring inconsistencies in the electoral registry; fraudulent migrations;  the vote by residents abroad; chronogram schedule and auditing.

• The NEC lost its image as impartial arbiter.

• Mistrust grows by the malicious rules and norms regarding international observation.

• EU and PE observers failed to receive offered invitations.

• Chávez invites Eurodeputies.

• OAS Brazil Ambassador named Chief of Mission.

• He arrived with adviser and technicians for whom he requests credentials.

• Would the NEC deny them?

• The Carter Center requests that the Accord with the NEC be respected.

• If Chávez believes he wins the RR, he would be the most interested in the endorsement of its results by The OAS and The Carter Center.

• If The OAS withdraws, The Inter American Democratic Charter shall decide his destiny.

• As the RR date nears, predictions of violence increase.

• The international community shall contribute to the peaceful solution of the crisis if it pressures for the fulfillment of the RR and its neatness. 

Uncertainty prevails a few days before the RR.  The first question is if, indeed, the electoral activity shall take place on 15 August.  The NEC, under officialdom control, faces serious delays in the announced chronogram.  There are problems with the electoral registry.  Ezequiel Zamora NEC Vicepresident, who disagrees with the governmental majority, was charging –for the past ten days- that the body was not meeting in spite of many pending issues to be decided.  Upon resuming sessions, he warned that delays could lead to a postponement of the RR, which in his view “could risk peace in the Republic.”

According to the Constitution, if the RR comes into being within the last two years of the term, the Vicepresident assumes the Presidency to its completion.  The RR suffers politically if it is carried out before 19 August.  At a later date, Chávez’s adversaries would lack interest in participating because, even if revoked, he would go on ruling through his co-opted Vicepresident.  His Vicepresident he can freely choose and remove.  At present, José Vicente Rangel is Chávez’s VP:  Rangel has shown absolute fidelity to Chávez as Chancellor, Defense Minister, and now as Vicepresident.  Rangel is not well-liked among men of brass around Chávez.  They point at him as a scruple less politician, capable of any betrayal.  The grapevine says that if Chávez is part of the RR, he would name someone of his greater trust as Vicepresident.

Besides Registry problems, the so-called “fraudulent migration”:  thousands of voters who –without having asked- were relocated into such distant precincts that in fact they are not able to vote.  Additionally, technicians have acknowledged difficulties in the elaboration and timely distribution of electoral instruments.  There are also problems with official staff of precinct tables.  They are selected at random among voters.  Officialdom was able to replace 18,000 for being signees requesting the RR.  The opposition pointed to the unconstitutionality of such action and maintained there was no time to train substitutes.

Another factor which might determine the postponement of the RR is the issue of the ID-tracing machines – not proposed by electoral legislation-, purchased at a high price, without bidding and to be tested for the first time.  Supposedly, the machines verify if the voter print matches the name showing on the ID Card.  Consultant technicians warn that if it rains, it is most probable to lose the satellite sign supporting the operation of the machines and, even if this does not happen, the use of this equipment doubles the voting time, making unviable for all voters registered in a precinct, to fulfill their right to vote within the allotted time to do so.  It is said that the print-tracking machines might be the justification sought by the NEC to delay the recall on 15 August proper.  The controversial machines have –according to suppliers- a margin of error, which could prevent thousands of eligible citizens from voting.

Jorge Rodríguez –official NEC spokesperson- acknowledged that “the process is proceeding at a very slow pace.”  Our analysts are of the opinion that the scheduled calling for 15 August may only be sustained while risking accepting inconsistencies of the Electoral Registry.  Besides the fraudulent migrations, the increment of over a million voters, linked to the massive issuance of ID Cards (Express Cards) to illegal residents and underage minors.  The question of thousands of Venezuelans residing abroad who vehemently protest for not being allowed to exercise their right to vote- has not been resolved.  Impossible conditions are demanded to allow this to be, such as the presentation of a certificate of residence.  The installments of the chronogram expire while creating questions on the make-up of electoral tables; the elaboration of ballots allowing manual voting, should voting machines fail; the auditing guaranteeing both the  operation of the machines, as well as the integrity of automatic suffrage.

FEARS OF FRAUD

In such scenario, officialdom would have to take steps clearing the fear of fraud.  It behaves to the contrary.  A noticeable number of NEC technicians have been fired or forced to go on vacation.  Why?  They signed the request for the RR.  The Council lost the image of impartiality with the obstacles and difficulties it began to raise yearlong vs. the RR possibilities.  Venezuela Today gave informed details of what was called The Calvary of the RR.  Distrust of NEC impartiality grows aggravated by the malicious regulation of foreign observers.

The NEC had no choice but to announce the presence of observers, among others, The OAS and The Carter Center.  However, The Regulation of International Observers issued on 21 June, has the purpose of discouraging participation, as it has occurred with The European Union and The European Parliament.  The European Commission sent an exploratory mission to Caracas.   A forthcoming invitation was promised to The European Union.  But, on 23 July, 2004, the Commission’s spokesperson in Brussels stated that the UE would be sending observers as they failed to receive official invitations.  Ambassadors accredited in Caracas have privately voiced that the NEC had not allowed the application of UE methodology by its technical staff.  Also its skepticism due to imposed conditions which would make observers “guests carved in stone” (lifeless and mute).

On 26 July, Fernando Fernández Martín (Spanish Eurodeputy), who headed a delegation visiting Venezuela last year, said in Madrid that The European Parliament will not send observers for lack of an invitation:  Fernández Martín unveiled the NEC maneuver, which is to tilt the scale to supporters of Chávez.  He said he knew that the NEC had invited eight Eurodeputies “of the most radical Left,” while the EP cannot accept to be represented according to the will of the inviting authority.   Fernandez Martín regretted that the invitation would not have been issued on time and without limitations.  On the same date, EFE (Spanish News Agency), reported from Brussels that ten leftist Eurodeputies are planning to travel to Caracas for the RR to express their support of Chávez.  According to EFE Belgian senators, deputies and Eurodeputies confirmed their intention to attend the recall to “work in tandem with a similar mission of Latin American parliamentarians, while expressing solidarity with Chávez from leftist circles on both shores of the Atlantic.”

THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY REACTS

Before this situation the international community has reacted.  Kofi Annan sent Ambassador Diego Cordovez, to make the following of the RR by the UN truly felt:  there will be no UN observers, but Chávez was told that the UN will have the OAS report as its own.  The OAS designated Valter Pecy Moreira –Brazilian Ambassador- as Chief of Mission.  It was an intelligent decision, as it may be supposed that Chávez –who boasts of a fraternal relationship with Lula- would not be inconsiderate with him as he was towards Fernando Jaramillo.  Moreira arrived in Caracas with his team of advisers and technicians for whom he expects to receive credentials of the NEC allowing them to fulfill their task.

Jimmy Carter declared he’ll arrive in Caracas a few days before the RR date.  Meanwhile, Francisco Diez, his representative, is trying to get the NEC to abide by a standing agreement with the NEC, which will allow him to efficiently fulfill his observation job.  The Center disagrees on the electoral entity to be limited to 40 people –the number of those in international missions- and it also disagrees with the proposal that technical staff can only come beginning on 11 August.  Néstor Kirchner took advantage of Chávez’s enthusiasm for MERCOSUR so that Raúl Alfonsín and Eduardo Duhalde could receive credentials as observers.  The Spanish Government announced it will send a group of experts to join the OAS Mission.  Other European Governments propose to do likewise.  The Christian Democratic, Socialist and Liberal Internationals; the World Confederations of Workers, all wish to get observers accredited.  Both Fox and Lagos have voiced their support of The OAS while anticipating their governments will back the fulfillment of its mission and the forthcoming Report.  These statements show the concern of the international community in behalf of the presence of reliable observers.  All of the above gives enormous weight to The OAS and The Carter Center, if they can fulfill their mission in keeping with their norms.

CHÁVEZ’S INCOHERENCIES AND THE ROLE OF THE OAS

Chávez has focused his campaign in the affirmation that he enjoys a crushing majority.  His deeds suggest the opposite.  Equally does the NEC, whose negligence is evident in the fulfillment of the chronogram.  Ezequiel Zamora is right when he says that postponing the RR would endanger the country’s peace. It is equally a contradiction, the apparent optimism of officialdom and its behavior building barriers to international observation.  If Chávez believes he wins the RR, he should the most interested in the endorsement of the results by The OAS and The Carter Center.  Notwithstanding, the NEC insists in restricting activities by these organizations, in such terms that it would nullify their mission.  If The OAS withdraws, its report would say, with the endorsement of The Carter Center, the UN, the EU and most Latin American Governments, that conditions needed for the realization of a fair recall did not exist.  Requirement would then be fulfilled for the application of The Inter American Democratic Charter.

The opposition declares its willingness to participate in spite of the “kidnapping of the arbiter”.  It trusts the powerful machinery its has put together to have the presence of witnesses in all tables and precincts.  Enrique Mendoza, the DCG spokesperson, maintains that a system of supervision is in place, allowing to know the whole process of the 15th., and to document results on Sunday evening.  Chávez challenges opponents to accepts NEC results.  The response has been that said results –even if they favor Chávez- shall be abided by, if  The OAS and The Carter Center certify the integrity of the process.

As 15 August nears, predictions of violence grow, especially, if the opposition YES! comes out on top.  International observation gains special meaning also in this respect, both formally –those invited by the NEC- and informally –world VIPs who propose to be in Venezuela beyond 15 August, if necessary.  World media is getting here also.  All of the foregoing might fulfill the role of  barriers vs. violence.

The international community made the RR possible.  It can contribute to the peaceful solution of the crisis in Venezuela if it pressured with efficacy for the recall to be held on time and neatly.