August 23^rd., 2004

A suspect referendum

Summary:

• Millions of Venezuelans went to bed believing they had revoked Chávez.  Upon waking up they were perplexed with the news that NO had won handily over YES.

• Results announced by the NEC were backed by Gaviria and Carter.

• This backing was not enough to calm suspicions about a massive electronic fraud.

• The recall issue is not closed.

• The lack of credibility of the arbiter’s impartiality feeds the distrust about published results.

• Exit polls from Penn, Schoen & Berland showed Sunday afternoon a resounding YES victory.

• Doug Schoen –a partner- says he’s certain there was fraud.

• Close to 2,000minutes show signs that a ceiling may have been programmed for YES votes.

• It is obvious that the RR did not have the effect proposed by The OAS:  an electoral solution to the crisis in Venezuela.

• At least 40 % of Venezuelans are desperate for Chávez to step down.

• The RR ends up being an X-Ray of the serious fracture suffered by Venezuelan society.

• Doubts on the RR will have to be resolved to make dialogue possible between those confronted sectors.

• Reconciliation is only possible if it fostered as a State policy.  It requires behaviors other than governmental.

• Chávez says he’s not willing to array any of the revolutionary flags.

• There shall not be any governors nor mayors committed to sabotaging government action.

• Is the Chávez Era beginning?

• He has an open road towards the consolidation of the autocratic-authoritarian model, if he keeps control of all powers, including the electoral power.

• Oil prices shall be determinant in the future of Venezuelan politics.

• The opposition ought to elaborate a new strategy.

Millions of Venezuelans woke up Sunday the 15^th  outside the polling centers, willing to revoke Chávez’s mandate.  A good part had to remain in very long lines until late night to punch the YES key in sophisticated electronic machines bought by the NEC for the event.  The many using cell phones, during the afternoon, received and echoed the results of exit polls by Penn, Schoen and Berland.  The accredited U. S. firm informed that the trend was 60-40 in favor of YES.  Millions of squalids in the lines were jubilant while Chavista faces were visibly perplexed.

DCG leaders, worried about the risk of news of a landslide victory provoking the desertion of those awaiting long hours in line to vote, called for remaining firm in the purpose of exercising the right to express an opinion. Voters heeded the call and the NCE was obligated to extend the closing of the polls, initially scheduled for 4 PM until midnight.  This was the time in which most exhausted squalids turned off their TVs and went to bed, convinced that Chávez had been revoked.  In the morning they could not believe the news of early dawn given by NEC President:  NO had heavily prevailed with 1.8 % over YES.

The NO triumph was swiftly backed by César Gaviria –OAS spokesperson- and by former President Jimmy Carter.  It was not enough to calm charges of a massive electronic fraud.  VIPs and institutions outside the political fray said that NEC results created reasonable doubts and warned about the gravity of said doubts not being cleared.  The DCG demanded an auditing.  The NEC agreed on it but refused to discuss its methodology with the opposition.  The OAS Mission and The Carter Center performed as observers of the auditing and on 19 Saturday offered a press conference.  They agreed that the auditing results were compatible with those given by NEC.  Upon questions by reporters, Gaviria expressed his willingness to take charges of fraud which if verified, The OAS would have to take them into account.  He said that before stepping down in behalf of Miguel Ángel Rodríguez –15 September- he would submit a Report on Venezuelan Activities to The Permanent Council.

Afterwards, The Carter Center delivered a report to the mass media explaining its role during the phases of the process and demanding greater transparency at all levels, in order to ensure trust in future electoral processes.

AN OPEN CHAPTER

That very Saturday, Jorge Rodríguez, NEC spokesperson, stated that the RR Chapter is closed.  Venezuela Today estimates such affirmation is not true.  First, the NEC has lost all credibility as arbiter.  Three of its five members –throughout the working year- made notorious demonstrations of passionate partiality for the government.  Their decisions in the process of signature gathering to request the RR and in the process of the challenges were plagued by vices and irregularities.  The whole RR administrative organization was delivered to officialdom activists.  As there was a generalized distrust of the arbiter, suspicion of possible abnormalities gained strength, when at dawn Monday the 16^th.; the two independent NEC members said that they had been kept out of the Tallying Room while the first report on results was being prepared.

The NEC had agreed to an immediate auditing of 1 % of the machines chosen at random.  Opposition witnesses were not allowed in this process.  Out of 192 machines to be audited, opposition witnesses were only allowed in the auditing of 17 machines.  According to witnesses, there were inconsistencies between the electronic minutes and the paper ballots deposited in the corresponding box.

Súmate, -the citizen lobby- informed in detail on exit polls by Penn, Schoen and Berland.  The afternoon data shows 61% for YES.  The final figure was 59%.  Súmate says it checked its numbers with those of other organizations doing exit polls.  Doug Schoen told AP he was sure there was fraud, as such a large difference -between the exit poll results and those offered by NEC- was not acceptable.  True that these polls by word of mouth are no evidence of fraud, but neither are so the fast and parallel count ones, whose results disagree with those published by NEC.  Notwithstanding, these factors nourish suspicions of fraud, especially because of the solvency of the firm carrying them out.  

The other explosive charge has been the insistent affirmation of electronic fraud.  Close to 2,000 minutes show signs that a ceiling may have been programmed for YES votes.  The issue has become a debate on whether such a sophisticated electronic fraud is possible.  Regarding the RR, it is certain that the NEC shall not allow any proposal questioning its results , after the support given by Gaviria and Carter.  The matter may be useful to nourish debate in many countries over the reliability of electronic devices in electoral processes.

Evidently, the RR failed to achieve results proposed by The OAS in Resolution 833 of The Permanent Council:  an electoral solution to the crisis in Venezuela.  Even in the case that NEC figures be authentic, 40 % of Venezuelans are desperate to see Chávez out of power.

THE RR:  AN X-RAY OF A FRACTURED COUNTRY

The country is divided into two blocs and the opposition has much greater weight.  Not only quantitative weight.  The backbone of the nation is in this bloc and this is not a pejorative judgment of Chávez’s clientele, respectable for its numbers and for the very important social and political significance of these popular segments of  Venezuelan society and people.  The fracture of Venezuelan society had been pinpointed as the determining factor of the crisis:  now no one may doubt its gravity.

Dialogue, reconciliation, sharing everyday living, national unity, acceptance and acknowledgement of adversaries, basic understandings between government and opposition; these are the proposals formulated by the best among Venezuelans and many in the international community.  Doubts on the recall shall have to be cleared in order to make possible an honest dialogue which might lead to reconciliation.  The main character is President Chávez.  He is the one who established the dimensions of the conflict and he is the one with the capability to re-dimension it.  Reconciliation is only possible if it is promoted as a State policy, says Miguel Díaz –Director of The South American Program in The Center for Strategic International Studies in Washington, D. C.  Díaz is –among academics- one that has been following the Venezuelan process of recent years with greater interest and attention.  He said:  it is not only a question of allowing the opposition to offer its views, but rather, the disposition to have these views reflected in governmental policies.

All those who have studied the Venezuelan Case identify problems of governance to be the core of the crisis.  If reconciliation and sharing daily living are  not pursued, the scenario will become evermore somber.  As Díaz maintains, reconciliation must be a State policy, which goes through new governmental behaviors, a new behavior by Chávez.  In this respect news are not good.  Aló Presidente (22 Sunday) is the salient reference.  Chávez said to be open to dialogue, but not with DCG:  it lacks legitimacy; I ignore it as a political entity.  An irresponsible and belligerent opposition –as the Venezuelan- cannot be acknowledged.  He added:  we are going to dialogue with whomever, but we are not going to array any of the revolutionary flags.  I ratify this to Venezuelans and to the international community.  Governance is not attained by lowering the level of demands of the revolution.  The task of the revolution:  to deepen it, and we are going to do so.

We analysts ought to be careful in judging presidential rhetoric.  This time attention has to be given to his words because of the circumstances of the times and because they develop his concept of governance.  According to him, this is achieved by strengthening the power of the government.  Towards these ends, he demands that The National Assembly name the new Supreme Court of Justice and that it pass The Act of Social Responsibility in Radio and TV –the so-called Muzzle Law- [Variables needed to ensure governance].

In keeping with his discourse, the forthcoming regional and local elections are the opportunity for the revolution to consolidate governance.  [There shall be no more governors and mayors sabotaging governmental actions].

OIL AND CHÁVEZ

The world media is exhaustively busy with the RR.  It highlights Chávez’s interpretation of the process as a final burial of a historical phase and the start of another.  Some daily headlines:  The Chávez Era Begins.  It could not be a headline calling attention of the readership.  The RR creates favorable conditions for Chávez to win heavily in this year’s regional and local elections; to win easily in the parliamentary elections next year and to be acclaimed in the 2006 presidential contest –should he keep control of all powers- including electoral power.  For Venezuelans it would be a tragic ingenuity to ignore that Chávez’s project is to rule indefinitely, within an autocratic, militaristic, authoritarian model, with enclaves of support in a large part of the World’s Left who adopt him as the leader of the Anti-Globalization Movement.  In the meantime, world democracies tend to tolerate him as a pest who simply bothers.

According to The Economist, as long as oil prices remain high possibly Chávez will remain invulnerable.  Indeed, the high oil prices are Chávez’s sustenance.  His government has had revenues in impressive amounts.  This year the budget was over 20 billion used without any sort of controls.  State Oil transferred 2 billion to a foundation in charge of funding the missions –a mechanism to openly distribute monies among those willing to join Chavista legions.

Venezuelan opposition would benefit in evaluating The Economist thesis towards the reshaping of its strategy –which cannot continue to be short-term-.  In the new strategy, it is indispensable to elaborate and present an alternative development model, convincing, not only for the middleclass but also for the popular sectors that voted for Chávez.  Their loyalty to the populist caudillo shall weaken  to the extent that vulnerabilities of his social policies become evident.