October 15th., 2004

Christopher Columbus decapitated

Summary:

• Chávez’s speech on the Spanish “genocide” has had an audience.

• A climate of apathy towards the scheduling of regional elections.

• One of two Venezuelans remain convinced that the RR was fraudulent.

• Chávez promises to conquer all governorships and mayoralties.

• Abstention, as an opposition tactics faces government “missions” nourished by sizable petrodollars.

• Petropopulism with plebiscite ingredients.

• The Bolivarian Revolution assumes control of all public powers.

• Oil makes Chávez the powerful ruler in the Continent.

• Chávez assumes victory in forthcoming elections and targets the independent media.

• The “Muzzle Act” threatens freedom of expression and access to information.

• A New Penal Code criminalizes dissidence and establishes severe sentences for crimes of opinion.

• NED funding may be cause of long prison years.

• Caracas may not be Moscow but Fidel Castro and Chávez have forged a strong alliance.

• History repeats itself:  Farce or Tragedy?

Venezuelans are more concerned about the events of 12 October regarding the statue of Christopher Columbus than about forthcoming elections.  The trial and beheading of Admiral Columbus has a political reading.  Chávez’s speech on the Spanish “genocide” in lands Columbus discovered has had an audience.  It incorporated Indigenism (the Indian issue) to the national agenda, within the political perspective –it now has- of the Radical Left in countries as Ecuador, Perú, Bolivia, Guatemala.  This is impressive, because in Venezuela Indians  are barely 2.3 % of the population, according to The 2001 National Census.

The National Electoral Council (NEC) has scheduled elections for governors and mayors for 31 October.  The apathy climate contrasts with the effervescence before the RR.  Loneliness was notorious in precincts on 10 Sunday in a trial run of the automated system to show citizens how it works.  Lingering doubts about RR results is a heavy factor.  One of two Venezuelans remains convinced that there was fraud and that there will be so in regional elections.

The overwhelming official campaign adds to it.  On the one hand, the Presidents promises to deepen the revolution through the conquest of all regional and municipal governments.  On the other, there is no sign of attention given to César Gaviria’s recommendations about the convenience of “a government-opposition agreement to give the arbiter trust, transparency and impartiality;” neither to Carter’s, whom upon blessing the RR, pointed to pending tasks, i. e., “restoring citizens trust in electoral systems,” and “ensuring that the race be as fair as possible.”

Ezequiel Zamora –NEC Vicepresident- resigned to call attention about irregularities during the RR process and as a warning about the urgency to correct them to offer trust.  The resignation was accepted swiftly.  When Zamora was named two deputies were also named.  None has been called to fill the vacancy.  Officialdom keeps stiff control over regional and local electoral entities (these ought to screen and proclaim winners).  The NEC refuses to review the Electoral Registry where 1,800,000 new registered voters without place of residence appear.  According to the opposition, this is the regime’s mobile electorate, with multiple identity documents, as a resource to decide in a fraudulent manner results in any Municipality or State.  There has not been any precise response to the claim for an audit of automated operations.

PETROPOPULISM

It is obvious that minimal conditions to guarantee elections are lacking.  In said scenario abstention has arisen as an opposition stance which appears not to be feasible.  The present governors and mayors outside officialdom have made charges about numerous violations of the Electoral Law.  They demand its strict compliance in order to participate as candidates.  Notwithstanding, they seem willing to defend what they call “power spaces.,” while running all risks.

For some analysts the variable abstention will become a reality, whether or not it be the political stance of the opposition.  It shall be compensated  by Chávez’s power of convocation of his followers; the activity by the government’s machinery to mobilize voters and, above all, the persuasive effect of the missions,” –which armed with petrodollars- operate as tools of munificent social policies aimed at the most affected poverty-stricken sectors.  Beneficiaries are warned to present proof of voting to continue enjoying this assistance.

Chávez is ready to offer new elections as evidence of his democratic demeanor.  He may attain this goal by transforming them into a national vote of confidence for his social policies.  In a recent analysis of the RR, Carlos Malamud, refers to the term “petropopulism,”  as used frequently to identify the nature of Chávez’s model.  One may add the plebiscite sign.  Chávez gave all electoral events following his coming to power the plebiscite sign.  This shall be the character of the election of governors and mayors.

The Bolivarian Constitution added two new powers to the traditional three:  a) The Citizen Power (Prosecutor; Controller and Attorney of the People) and b) The Electoral Power.  The President controls these five powers and –very possibly- on 31 October, his candidates shall get the vote majority in governorships and mayoralties.  The Bolivarian Revolution, formally accepting the values and rules of democracy, thus, the apparent maintenance of institutions, shall have absolute control of all public powers.  There shall not be a neutral international observance.  The OAS and The Carter Center did not accept the NEC invitation.  The international community would restrict itself to give its nod of approval to results as something coherent with the 59 % majority backing Chávez last 15 August.

Chávez shows a power concentration like no other ruler in the Continent.  He affirms and believes that the YES vote in the RR is alienated by the media.  He’s certain of victory in the forthcoming elections and he targets his next enemy.  The media has always been his greatest concern.  From Aló Presidente –each week- he fires on it with high caliber, verbal cannons.  That rhetoric has stimulated his most fiery partisans, untiring protagonists of violent deeds vs. independent TV channels and dailies.  The power of the government has been implacable: administrative sanctions; equipment seizures; fiscal and judicial harassment; threats and a long etc.

CARACAS MAY NOT BE MOSCOW BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT

For a long time Chávez threatened with legislation to regulate radio and TV contents.  He kept the threat until the RR.  Now, he decided to ask his parliamentarians to approve it.  It is called The Radio and TV Social Responsibility Act.  Commonly, it is known as The Muzzle Law.  Apparently, its objective is to protect society from TV abuse of sex or violence.  In its application, it may indeed become a muzzle of freedom of expression and access to information.  With the assistance of a New Penal Code which criminalizes dissidence and establishes severe penalties for crimes of opinion.

The Penal Code Reform sanctions with 20 to 30 years sentences the acceptance of foreign financial support for activities deem by a judge to be damaging of national sovereignty.  It is the case of Súmate [an NGO efficiently promoting civic participation in behalf of democratic values].  María Corina Machado –President of Súmate- is being accused of betraying the Nation for monies she received from The National Endowment for democracy (NED).  Penal Reform is not yet in place but most judges allow their being used politically.  They are provisional judges named by the regime.  Those daring to make strict judicial decisions –not under official control- have been fired.

The foreign world will not be able to stick its nose in Venezuela under the guise of democratic values or human rights.  With oil as a missile-like weapon, Chávez plays tough in the international turf.  He’s said that he has veto power in the designation if the new OAS Secretary General.  It may be true.  Oil geopolitics is heavy in the Caribbean.

Financial Times of 14 October, has an article “Caracas May Not Be The New Moscow But Fidel Castro And Hugo Chávez Have Forged A Strong Alliance.”  The title seems striking but it doesn’t bother the Comandantes.  Colin Powell recently said that Castro is a problem of Cubans.  “I don’t see him as a problem for the rest of the Hemisphere.  We propose a betterment of relations with Chávez.”  It is one of the few present accords between the U. S. and Europe.  On the Orinoco shores there lays another Saudi Arabia.  Its huge reserves of heavy crude, highly lucrative with new technologies, make Chávez the object of universal courting.

These are the new scenarios of petropopulism in its national laboratory and its international impact.  It has antecedents in the first term of Carlos Andrés Pérez (history repeats itself).  As farce or as tragedy?   Let’s be optimistic.  Let’s side with farce.