November 16th., 2004

The New Phase of the Revolution

Summary

• “Revolution has forever arrived, this has no going back,” says Chávez.

• A Top Level Workshop to examine the new phase of the process.

• The President spoke for three hours outlining a political plan to consolidate the Revolution.

• A boots and helmets image in the first activity following regional elections.
  This is the logic of the Revolution.

• Democratic governments managed to place the military under control of civilian power.  With the Revolution, military predominance returns.

• The Ceressole Doctrine:  leader, army, people.
  The undeniable Chávez support from the huge poverty sector:  a captive electorate by a unique clientelism in Latin America.

• Chávez’s rhetoric tunes in values and anti-vales of popular sectors.
  The Revolution perfects its legal costume.

• The enacting of The Muzzle Law and a New Penal Code –criminalizing dissidence- is imminent.
  Five years and six months for delinquent opinion.

• Chávez will increase his international activities.

• The naming of Ms. Rice has infuriated him.

• The anti-U. S. rhetoric gains him allies in the most diverse places.

• J. P. Morgan says Venezuela would suffer the most if oil prices decline.

Red covered the map.  It was the media headline October 31^st.  “Revolution has forever arrived, this has no going back,” said Chávez  and he plunged into the international agenda.  Before leaving for the Río Summit, he stated that Vicepresident Rangel would call a Miraflores Meeting with elected governors “regardless their political affiliation.”  Rangel said he had the charge of elaborating the agenda.  Upon his return, the President said that a new phase of the revolution was beginning. 

The announced meeting began on 12 Friday with significant changes.  It did not take place in Miraflores but rather at the Ministry of Defense with top military brass in attendance.  Both opposition governors were not invited and, of course, none of the mayors.  According to a press release from the Vicepresidency, it was a Top Level Workshop of the Revolution to examine the new strategic map and the phase of the process.  Private media was barred from the activity.  State officials had little to say.  They only said that the President had spoken for over three hours, outlining a political plan to consolidate the revolution within and to broaden international relations within a strategy.  Últimas Noticias –the official daily- published in its cover page the recommendations from the Minister of Defense to strengthen The National Armed Forces and the civic-military unity.  This was one of the conclusions announced by Rangel.  Likewise, he informed the making of a coordinating entity of The Presidency.  The No. 2 in the military –The Armed Forces Inspector General- is part of this body.

Analysts wonder on what is really this new phase of the revolution.  The Top Level Workshop has explicit signs.  The Ministry of Defense as a stage and the participation of the High Command cannot be understood randomly.  It is imperative to read its message.  Why a boots and helmets image in the first revolutionary activity after the landslide in regional elections?  To this, the Chávez choice of brass people for top governorships and mayoralties –while also those in key public administration posts are military- should be added.  It seems obvious that the sign of the new phase of the revolution is the greater weight of the military in its orientation and management.  This is within the logic of the process.

MILITARISM, CLIENTELISM, AUTHORITARIANISM

The goal of the Revolution has been the Satanization of The Fourth Republic.  In the lights and shadows of this chapter of history, that which has been most noticeable is that it corresponds with the first civil regimes in a country of military Presidents since its Independence (except for a 5 year parenthesis during the XIX Century and 3 years during the XX Century).  It was the purpose and feat started by Rómulo Betancourt and ended by the second Presidency of Rafael Caldera as democratic regimes, to keep the military under control of civil power.  Under the gist Chávez has given the Revolution, the military regain predominance.  Six years of Chavismo have worked hard in the creation of a militaristic culture.

In the new phase of the Revolution, Norberto Ceressole, the obscure Argentinean Peronista political scientist has returned to national memory.  He successfully sold –as adviser to Chávez- the notion that a post-democratic era was on the way, in which the scheme of a revolutionary government would function on the leader-army-people tripod.  It is clear that Chávez fits the making of a charismatic figure, astute, audacious to the point of temerity; with the ambition of autocratic power for life and the aspiration to be recognized as someone with a world projection.  Chávez has managed to fracture history while giving himself the task of re-starting it and has divided society with abysses of hatred between followers and adversaries.

The Chávez support of the huge poverty sector is undeniable.  It is the electorate captive of handouts, as fruit of a clientelism unparalleled in Latin America.  It would be superficial to reduce the backing for Chávez to this element.  Several polls indicate that 20 % of the populace trusts him regardless of what he says or does.  This is “hard” Chavismo immunized vs. any argument against the Caudillo.  Polls also reveal that there are notable differences in the appreciation of values and institutions between popular sectors and the middle classes.  For the latter democracy, personal liberties, freedom of expression, separation of powers, judicial power autonomy and decentralization are fundamental.  Not so for popular sectors who prioritize material necessities, appreciate missions as a satisfactory tool and doubt democracy’s capability to secure wellbeing, order and security.

In the new phase of the revolution certain symptoms appear deserving a reading:  1.-  To perfect the legal attire of the revolution.  The passing of The Social Responsibility for Radio and TV Act (“Muzzle Law”) is imminent.  A New Penal Code criminalizing dissidence, “cacerolazos,” (the banging of pots and pans), proposing anew harsh sentences for “comp-tempt” cases [offenses to officials; slandering of public powers].  20 to 30 years sentences for traitors to the homeland or for political organizations or ONGs receiving funds from abroad.  2.-  Chávez demanded that in the next few days, 12 new Supreme Court Justices be named; the Revolution shall strengthen its absolute control over The Court and the entire judicial power.  3.-  Stick and carrots with the opposition.  An offer for dialogue and conciliation, but Chávez denies the possibility of a blank pardon for political prisoners:    rather, trials continue vs. regime adversaries, including two reelected mayors in Caracas.

THE FUTURE DEPENDS ON RECONCILIATION

The trial vs. Súmate executives goes on.  They are charged with homeland treason for having received National Endowment for Democracy (NED) funds, which have been deemed as meddling into domestic affairs by U. S. Congress people and other VIPs from five continents mediating in behalf María Corina Machado and others indicted.

Ret. Gen. Francisco Uson –who resigned as Minister of Finances- was sentenced to five years, six months in prison for having issued an opinion on events which took place at a military garrison.  An Art. from The Code of Military Justice which says:  “whoever damages, offends or despises The National Armed Forces –or any of its units- shall incur in the penalty of three to eight years in prison,” was applied to him.  The war-to-death vs. corruption objective –in The Top Level Workshop- seems to be the indictment of governors and mayors who lost to officialdom candidates on 31 October elections.

On the other hand, it is obvious that Chávez will increase his international activity, under the known flags of struggle vs. globalization, neoliberalism and U. S. imperialism.  The naming of Ms. Rice as Secretary of State has infuriated him.  Rhetoric vs. the U. S. conquers allies in the most diverse spaces.  Recently, Noam Chomsky –well-known university professor- declared himself a Chávez follower:  a professor asked him his views on Venezuela and if he knew the country’s situation:  he answered negatively but kept his positive appreciation of Chávez:  “He’s a Bush enemy and that is enough for me to deem him a progressive leader.”

High oil prices have allowed to increase 50 % in public expenditures.  The Stabilization Fund, dictating the savings of part of revenues from oil, was discarded.  Public funds for reproductive investments are minimal and private investment is scarce.  Inflation is the highest in Latin America and the sole remedy to unemployment has been the growth of bureaucracy and the development of the informal economy.  A recent J. P. Morgan Report points to Venezuela as the country suffering most severely if energy prices decline.

In such foggy scenario Venezuela Today ends this report with words from Archbishop Pérez Morales –a top Catholic figure-:  “The Church’s Social Doctrine challenges responsibility regarding the concrete situation of a fractured country, whose national guts are torn by intolerance, fear, violence and impunity.   Jesus’ warning resounds with a peculiar voice:  Any kingdom divided by internal strife runs to ruins and its dwellings will crumble on top of each other.”  This is not cleric rhetoric.  The future of the country depends on reconciliation.  Is Chávez willing to give it some space?  Is the Revolution able to tolerate its adversaries?