February 28th, 2005

The Revolution Agenda

Summary

• Under Secretary of State Robert Zoellick would work with The OAS, to deal with growing regional authoritarianism.

• Miraflores took it as an alarming sign.

• Venezuela’s Foreign Minister charges at The OAS, that there are plans to assassinate Chávez.

• According to Chávez and Fidel, Bush would be responsible for the assassination.

• Ms. McCoy (The Carter Center) visiting Caracas, asks that confidence in electoral processes, arbiter transparency and campaign equity be restored.

• She agrees with Gaviria on problems of trustworthiness, arbiter trust and partiality, transparency, as well as, weaknesses in the Venezuelan electoral system.

• The international community knows what goes on in Venezuela, but it values Chávez as a generous friend and dangerous enemy.

• Why is Chávez afraid of being murdered?

• Violence is inevitable when paths to peaceful alternance are closed.

• The official spokesperson of The Revolution says that the international media is part of a conspiracy.

• He pointed to important U. S. dailies and to the President of The Association of Foreign Reporters.

• Human Rights in Venezuela according to The U. S.  State Department.

• The OAS June Meeting shall stage the first head-to-head Bush-Chávez clash.

The assassination of the President and the mediated plot –with a U. S. epicenter- are the key issues in the revolution’s agenda.  This is the impact of Robert Zoellick’s words at his confirmation hearing –as Under Secretary of State- before the U. S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  When asked about his vision of  Washington-Caracas relations, he said that he would work with The OAS to find protection mechanisms for democratic values vs. the growing regional authoritarianism:  “Elections are won, those in power undermine the opposition, the media is restrained and judicial power is appropriated.  This is a new form of authoritarianism which must be dealt with.”

Miraflores read it as an alarming sign.  Foreign Minister Alí Rodríguez came to The oAS Permanent Council (02-23-05), clearly stating that Venezuela will go all out vs. any reform of the Inter American democracy charter viewed as violating its principles of sovereignty and self-determination.  at the OAS session, he affirmed that credible intelligence services show plans to assassinate the president.  in california –in a chrevron-texaco tour- he repeated this to reporters  and to CNN’s Patricia Paniot.  each time he was asked about evidence, he said again that intelligence services had detected the plans.  the minister was careful not to openly point to the U.S. as responsible of said plans:  but Fidel Castro did categorically said so:  “if Chávez is assassinated, responsibility will fall squarely on the U.S. president.”  Chávez echoed Fidel in his Aló Presidente:   “if i’m murdered, the guilty one is George Bush.”

Should there be any serious signs that a friendly government is plotting to assasinate the chief of state, a breakoff of relations would be imperative:  this is the voice in the diplomatic grapevine in Caracas.  however, it should be noted, that the triple ring of protection around him are at a “red alert” level.  around one hundred intelligence agents are in Montevideo, tracking any risk he might run in his trip to attend Tabaré Vázquez’s inauguration.  according to the Uruguayan press, the government was asked by Caracas to strengthen security around Chávez the international community gave Chávez democratic legitimacy credentials after the 15 august referendum.  the OAS and the carter center validated it.

THE RR WARRANTORS SPEAK OUT

Ms. Jennifer McCoy, Director of The Carter Center, at the end of her three-day visit to Caracas, announced the imminent presentation of The Final Report On The Venezuelan Observation Mission.  She said that the Report’s contents shall produce “reactions.”  She asked The National Assembly to name The National Electoral Council (NEC), in keeping with the text of The Constitution and she went on to say, that it is indispensable to purge The Electoral Registry, “so that it may be reliable, public and auditable.”  The prognosis of the explosive effects of Carter’s Final Report is valid.  It will broaden the preliminary one of last 30 September, very explicit on the need of restoring trust in electoral processes, arbiter transparency and campaign equity.  It shall necessarily attest to the refusal by The National Assembly to fulfill the constitutional mandate to elect the NEC in keeping with the dictates of its text.  Also, that municipal elections have been called without the purging of The Electoral Registry ordered by The Voting Act.

The OAS is the other party availing the re-legitimization of Chávez by the 15 August, 2004 RR.  Notwithstanding, then Secretary General César Gaviria –throughout his behavior in the Venezuelan conflict and in his reporting to The OAS Permanent Council and to The OAS Assembly- clearly spoke on the arbiter weaknesses on reliability, transparency and impartiality.

The international community knows what goes on in Venezuela but claims that results of the 15 August RR gives a good behavior status to Chávez.  It is usually added that Chávez wins any election he calls.  Besides said arguments, the Venezuelan Chief Executive is a very generous friend and a most dangerous enemy.  He so showed President Lagos, when he unleashed a Continental Hornets Nest by calling for an active solidarity with Bolivia in its claim for a seaport.  He showed Dominican Hipólito Mejía by cutting off oil supplies.  Real Politick advises to deal with him as a friend, or at least, not to make him an enemy.  This is the policy of Caribbean and Central American countries whose economies are strongly tied to the modality with Chávez supplies them with oil.    

Why does Chávez insist that he’s sentenced to die?  The scenario demands a review.  The RR was the crowning of a world effort to reach a peaceful, democratic, constitutional, electoral solution to the so-called Venezuelan Case.  According to the analyst of the RR, Chávez won it, but they severely question the democratic legitimacy of the electoral system; the arbiter impartiality and the lack of equity with contenders.  This situation has not changed.  This is what explains the perceived climate of abstention regarding scheduled municipal and parliamentary elections.  No one denies that the revolution has a sizable number of supporters and that the missions generate a significant clientele backing, but on the opposite side of the street there are millions of Venezuelans –evermore harassed- and many even desperate.  Newspeople have just had their first street demonstration –relatively important- as a show of peaceful resistance before measures affecting them.  This is a sign that the peaceful resistance choice may have more acceptance than electoral participation in present terms. When the stresses magnicide is because he understands that violence shall be an inevitable outcome of the shutdown of paths to peaceful alternance.

WASHINGTON REACTS?

Mediated Conspiracy is the other top issue in the Revolution’s Agenda.  There are dimensions that deserve a reading.  In Alo Presidente (02-20-05), Washington’s Dossier as the source of the conspiracy was presented.  Next day, the Minister of Information called a press conference to add new elements:  the foreign media is part of the plot.  The Washington Post, its editorial writer Jack Diehl and its columnist Michael Shifter were charged with being part of The U. S. Department of State Dirty War against Chávez.  The question was raised on whether or not The Miami Herald is creating a climate of opinion favoring a U. S. armed intervention.  Likewise, whether there is the same purpose in Venezuelan dailies, El Nacional and El Universal publishing U. S. media reports vs. Chávez.  “It should not be a surprise –he said- to find documents showing that El Nacional directly receives funds from The U. S. Department of State.”  He mentioned Phil Gunson,  President of The Foreign Media Association, as possible recipient of U. S. monies.  Gunson, a highly professionally-qualified British newsman, who writes in Newsweek, The Economist and Financial Times, rejected that either he or the entities he writes for may be part of a Washington-based planned conspiracy:  He added, “It is an attempt to scare me off.”

This incidence deserves a reading.  Maria Corina Machado and her people in Sumate are being indicted for the crime of conspiracy, because they received funds from The National Endowment for Democracy (NED).  The Annual Human Rights Report (U. S. Department of State, 02-28-05) says so.  This Report underscores the continued lack of respect; the meddling in the administration of justice; the attacks on NGOs and the measures affecting freedom of expression.  “Criticism of the government have become a crime.”

Zoellick’s statements before The Senate Committee reflect an on-going policy –according to Bogota’s  El Tiempo-.  The generally well-informed Colombian daily, shows behind the scene and with an eye on Venezuela, that Washington has begun to move the chips towards modifying The Inter American Charter for Democracy, in order to intervene when a scaled rupture of democracy occurs.

It shall be a tough diplomatic battle.  Chávez is seeking to secure the backing of Lula, Kirchner and Tabaré in Montevideo.  The forgotten OAS regains interest:  its June General Assembly in Florida, may stage the first head-to-head clash between Bush and Chávez.