April 15th., 2005

Oil as Leading Player

Summary.-

• The Pope’s passing brought about a new confrontation between Chávez and The Catholic Church.

• Chavista throngs physically attacked the Paraguayan Ambassadoress when she –elegantly attired- tried to walk through Plaza Bolívar, which is revolutionary turf.

• Events of 11 April, 2002 still stir controversy.

• For Chávez, oil was the source of the whole process.

• TIME’S analysis.

• The Revolution attempts to impose –as article of faith- that 11 April was a coup bred in Washington.

• A leading human rights activist is accused of conspiracy.

• The Attorney General says that hundreds charged with conspiracy could end up being thousands.

• Chávez calls up military reservists anticipating a U. S. invasion.

• Adversaries maintain that he’s trying to legalize a parallel army under his direct command.

• Foreign guests attending The World Forum in Solidarity with The Revolution, will spread worldwide, the ideology and achievements of the revolution.

• Chávez boasts about his OAS victory but his support fouled up the chances of the Chilean candidate.

• North Korea may be the next chapter in the Caracas-Washington  verbal clash.

The message of peace and togetherness journeying the world during the agony and passing of John Paul II, had a weak echo in Venezuela –at least in official circles-.  Chávez did not attend the religious service on Tuesday the 5^th., sponsored by The Conference of Venezuelan Bishops (CEV).  There was no officialdom at The Apostolic Nuntiature whereas there was  in countries with Vatican Embassies.  The government                       held its own mass on Friday the 8^th., at The Cathedral.  Cardinal Castillo-Lara traveled tRome and Msgr. André Dupuy –Dean of The Diplomatic Corp.- went to Brussels as recently-named Vatican Representative for The European Union.     Msgr. Porras –President of CEV-, was heading services at his home Chancery in Mérida as well as other prelates in their respective Dioceses.

Government complaints on the absence of Church Hierarchy at The Cathedral were wiped out by published reports  of official  Paraguayan protests on the mistreatment of their Ambassadoress.  She attended, of course, the government activity:  only those officially invited were at The Cathedral at Plaza Bolívar.  Numerous Chavista activists gathered at the plaza.  At the conclusion of the Mass, the Ambassadoress attempted to walk across The Plaza to get to her car.  This is an emblematic turf of the revolution, where “squalids” are seen as unfriendly.  The elegant Paraguayan lady was seen as “squalid.”   She was taken to a hospital for her serious physical bruises.

The truth on April 11, 2002 remains a controversial issue.  The government never accepted a Truth Commission.  When it is gathered in the future, it will have sufficient data for an objective report.  Events, then, were recorded in videos.  Many foreign newspeople were eyewitnesses.  Much has been written on it.  Some of these texts show impartiality.  It is an unfinished debate among Venezuelans.

Chávez stated in Aló Presidente that oil was the source of events then.  Formally, he is right.  The huge popular demonstration in Caracas on that date began at the plaza next door to the headquarters of state oils.  It ended with a massacre in the vicinity of The Presidential Palace, the announcement of the supposed resignation of The President and the enactment of the brief government of Pedro Carmona.  Down deep, the Lt. Col. is also right.  TIME  has just named him as one of the five most influential people on the planet.  No one has said that TIME exaggerates.  Indeed, Chávez is linked to the word oil.

A MIRRORS GAME

The regime has made great efforts to impose its script on 11 April.  On the third anniversary of the date, the campaign led by the President was overwhelming to accept it as a Washington-backed coup.  The Supreme Court dictated that those charged with rebellion may be newly indicted for the same charges and the District Attorney’s list grows by day.  The last one indicted is Carlos Ayala Corao –former President of The Inter American Human Rights Court and President of The Andean Commission of Jurists-.  He is charged with conspiracy.  His crime:  to represent victims of violation of human rights before international bodies.  Harassment of human rights activists is a trademark of authoritarian regimes.

The Attorney General, in his speech before The National Assembly, said that the coup was agreed at a meeting, of which he gave date and place.  He referred to an activity where all opposition organizations agreed on “Foundations for a Democratic Accord.”  His words render a new judicial dimension to events on 11 April.  The spokesperson is the official in charge of criminal indictments.  Several among those signing the accord and entrepreneurs of the main TV Stations have already been indicted.  According to The Attorney General, the list may never come to an end and it is explosive.

The regime-sponsored celebration of the date was focused on the mobilization of the Military Reserves and The World Solidarity Encounter With The Revolution.  At the opening, before some twenty thousand reservists in Fuerte Tiuna he said that this was the most difficult, complex and transcendental of missions.  He deals with some assumptions:  a) there are a million and a half former soldiers among reservists; b) 300,000 of these are unemployed, according to official estimates; c) those enlisting in the Reserves receive a salary and may get credits in official banks; d) According to the President’s speech, they qualify to get rifles bought from Russia.  Is this a mirrors game among fantasies and realities?  Oil prices feed fantasies and allow realities.

A DANGEROUS FRIENDSHIP

Marta Harnecker, organizer of The World Solidarity Encounter, has said four hundred foreign guests shall attend discussions and later will divulge –videos and literature on the revolution- worldwide.  Chávez took advantage of the gathering to present, as a victory for Bolivarian ideas, what he called a historic defeat for the U. S. in its attempt to take over The OAS.  He pressed the Colombian President to avoid disrespectful statements.  According to the official media, the Encounter is timely to analyze –from the anti-imperialist view- the project of The Statement of The South American-Arab League Summit in Brasilia next May and to advance preparations of the forthcoming World Social Summit.  The official media ought to be read with a magnifying glass but the weight of the Binomial Chávez-Oil should not be discarded.

At the third April 11  anniversary, Chávez underscored international achievements.  They are undeniable but can be questioned.  There are dangerous friendships.  He built a wall vs. the Chilean President’s choice for OAS Secretary General.  In Mexico. López-Obrador –with favorable polls- to win the Presidency, has to frequently repeat that Chávez will not be his model.  In Spain, the Rodríguez Zapatero-Chávez romance has become a real problem for Socialists.  In Brazil, Lula’s reelection goes through a breakaway from Chávez.  Kirchner –aware that Chávez is a perilous friendship- keeps him as a friend in the closet.

For Chávez, as well, some of his friendships pose a danger.  In The South American Project, the more loyal are those factors which detract rather than add:  such is the case with the Brazilian Sin Tierra,(Landless);  Argentinean Picketers; Bolivian Cocaleros; Colombian Guerrillas and Bucaram in Ecuador.

The clash with The U. S. is ambivalent:  it is a give-and-take.  An event is approaching which will make news:  the announcement of the visit of a North  Korean official delegation in the next few weeks, to sell medium-range missiles and to request Venezuelan support of their nuclear program.  It will surely become a new folklore chapter in the Ping-Pong Game between Washington and Caracas.