September 14th., 2005

UNPD and ECLA Indicators

Summary:

• Chávez announces the imminent crumbling of The U. S. Empire.

• Success and difficulties of The Revolution.

• According to UNPD and ECLA, inequality, extreme poverty and malnourishment have increased.

• Severe charges vs. key regime policies.

• Venezuela is ill placed in the analysis of achievements and failures of Latin American democracy.

• Precarious economic freedom places Venezuela at the level of Zimbabwe and Congo.

• Government collects 150 million-x-day in petrodollars but private investment is the lowest in the last 55 years.

• Military takeover and expropriation of industrial facilities without due process.

• Official spokespeople affirm it is the start of XXI Century Socialism.

• The military control facilities while Cuban technicians evaluate infrastructures.

• The Age of Intervention begins with the appearance of confiscation.

• Official media speaks of the President’s Project to intervene 700 “non-productive” enterprises and over 1,000 with a sluggish rhythm of production.

• A farm is occupied by the military:  according to Chávez, it belonged to his great grandfather, a guerrilla known as Maisanta.

• There is an international fatigue for The Chávez Case.  The decline in oil prices shall bring the demise of the last Caribbean Cartoon Opera.

On 6 Tuesday, the gathering launching The Caribbean Oil Accord, took place in Jamaica:  AP flashed the photo of Fidel and Chávez with exulted faces.  Nearby there were signs of trouble which did not murk the smile of the rulers.  PETROCARIBE was a reality and Chávez –as the acknowledged regional leader- was calling for a definition of strategies towards the imminent crumbling of he U. S. Empire.

Oil diplomacy reaps success but the external image of The Revolution continues to experience discomfort.  Official spokespeople express disgust on recent UNPD-ECLA (United Nations Population and Development-Economic Commission for Latin America) reports, according to which, HDI [Human Development Indexes] had declined  in Venezuela while improving  in most countries of the region.  When analyzing the status of millennium objectives, Venezuela is last  and it seems the goal is unattainable for 2015.  Inequality, extreme poverty and malnourishment have increased.  Opposition and independent analysts claim that HDI decline is a severe charge vs. key regime policies.  HDI cover three dimensions:  income; education and health.  Oil prices and demanding fiscal reforms increased government revenues into fairy tale levels.  The whole official discourse is centered in its social policy and the claim of spectacular achievements in health, education and welfare, as a result of missions.  In reply to official discontent, Caracas UNDP Office issued a press release stating that The 2005 Report covers data through 2003.  UNDP left officialdom dissatisfied because its 2004-2005 figures do not essentially change its indicators.

The International Center for Public Policy (ICPP) reported development indicators of democracy in Latin America, which were also disturbing for the regime.  The ICPP Report shows that Venezuela is last on this count.  The regional mean was 4.84 while Venezuela is 2.58.  ICPP aims at showing achievements and failures in the realization of democratic values in the region.  In either aspect Venezuela is ill-placed.  Official media questioned the veracity of UNPD-ECLA Indicators.  Those of  ICPP were accused as new   slander from Imperialism vs. The Bolivarian Revolution.  The World Index of Economic Freedom {Canada’s Frazer Institute}got a similar response.

The Canadian WIFE measures how a country’s policies and institutions support economic liberties as a premise for development.  It places Venezuela as 124 out of 127 economies researched, at the level of Zimbabwe and Congo.  VEA, -the official daily- reported that such fallacies would be unmasked by the President at his UN General Assembly speech.

Economic figures have become fuel in the officialdom-critics debate.  The extreme political control of The Central Bank and The Office of Statistics nourishes suspicion of the numbers from each body.  However, neither one hides that between 1999 and 2004, key social indexes (jobless rate; homes in poverty and per capita income have not improved.  Chávez has already been enjoying high oil prices for several years:  the government receives 150 million-petrodollars-x-day, but private investments barely makes 13.8% of  the GDP.  The present administration is  the one who has least attracted investments into the country for the past 55 years.

XXI CENTURY SOCIALISM

What has been called The Chávez Effect is easy to read.  Editorial policy of large dailies answers critical positions but the general information is objective.  Also, mass media feels the weight of The Muzzle Law and The Damocles Sword of exchange controls; judicial-fiscal claims and all administrative inspection procedures always available for intimidation.

El Nacional front page reported the improvement in Venezuela’s risk qualification due to strong demand of its emerging debt papers  The entire media reported on the same day that Polar –the main agro-industrial conglomerate in the country- protested the military takeover and expropriation, without due process, of one of its installations.  It is a violation of private property, said the firm’s lawyer, a threat to any investment purpose.  The Minister of Agriculture replied that the installation was inactive and it was fair for workers to take it over with National Guard support.  “It is government policy to rescue productive infrastructures to adapt them to the co-management model.  The New Socialism proposes to guarantee employment to workers.”  The Minister of Popular Economy maintained it was not an isolated case, “because government policy, within The New Socialism Model, is nourishment security.” There was multiple evidence that installations were operating as a Collection, Maintenance and Distribution Center for corn produced by growers in the zone.

That very day, El Nacional reported the intervention in the State of Monagas, of a Heinz tomato processing plant.  The Minister of Agriculture stated it was part of a Plan of Intervention and Recuperation of Animal Husbandry Enterprises to foster endogenous development while implementing the co-management model.  The media has been following this matter.  In the intervention process, the State Governor formally surrendered installations to The Army Hunters Brigade for the military control and management of the plant, while Cuban technicians evaluate the infrastructure for its reactivation.  A slaughter house was also taken over.  The official media says it is the beginning of the President’s Project to rescue 700 non-productive enterprises and over 1000 operating sluggishly.  Indeed, in Aló Presidente (17 July, 2005), in his so personal style of governing, he ordered the start of the process:  “He who owns a shop, be a shopkeeper, sell it or we will expropriate it.” Ministers and Governors heeded his voice.  It is reasonable to assume that entrepreneurs did too.  They deem more intelligent to purchase debt bonuses than to make productive investments.

FARM TAKEOVER BY THE MILITARY

Together with such measures, The Intervention Program of Large Animal Husbandry Units was re-started. It was very controversial at Hato Pińero, internationally recognized as a Model of Conservationist Agro-Tourism.  Likewise, Charcote, a British-owned old cattle ranch.  In the new stage, the takeover of numerous farms was announced:  at least seven were taken over by the military.  Authorities announced the issuance of Agro-Letters to peasants for them to occupy these, thus, fostering endogenous development.

Among occupied farms there is one –La Marqueseńa- is becoming a scandalous case.  The government says they are wastelands.  This contradicts a Chávez statement in Agustín Blanco’s book  Habla El Comandante (ratified several times in Aló Presidente).  He says La Marqueseńa belonged to his great-grandfather, a guerrilla known as Maisanta, who says the President, attempted to rescue his lands.  “Now, I think they belong to the Aspurus” he said.  Members of this family are now being accredited as legitimate owners and demand the verification of the excellent operational status of their land.  Eduardo Gómez Sigala –an entrepreneurial leader- has asked The Supreme Court to say if, in Venezuela, there is or there is not private property.  FEDECÁMARAS demanded the restitution of legal order and argues that without acknowledgement of the right of property, the private sector cannot function, and this entails hunger and misery.  The President repeats that the road is XXI Century Socialism and calls for a constitutional reform to channel it within the judicial order.  Before a Chinese visiting commercial delegation, he ratified to remain in power until 2030.  Hours before he had sworn in his delegates in The National Assembly for elections in December.  No one doubts he’ll have the majority and that the reform will allow him to stay in power as long as he wants or can be.

This is the Venezuelan scenario when The UN deals with Millenium Goals and ICCP questions the forward and backward pace of democracy in Latin America.  When fatigue begins for The Chávez Case and it is proposed to await the decline in oil prices so the last curtain may fall upon the last Cartoon Opera of Caribbean Folklore.