November 14th., 2005

Mar Del Plata Summits

Summary:

•  In the President of Inter-American Dialogue’s opinion, Chavez scored a hit in Mar del Plata.

• “Chavez did not bury the AFTA, but he managed to put it in the freezer”.

• Severe diplomatic conflict between México and Venezuela as a consequence of Mar del Plata.

• How far is the conflict going? Withdrawal of ambassadors so far.

• Just a few presidents of the Continent and Europe like Chavez, but they cultivate his friendship or at least avoid his enmity.

• In Mar del Plata, Fox requested a bilateral meeting with Kirchner and he denied it because of his busy agenda. The available time was reserved to Chavez.

• The version of the Argentinean journal, Clarín.

• Michael Shifter warns that the Latin American trust in U.S. has evaporated.

• Chavez considers that the Venezuelan oil is indispensable for the northern power.

• Chavez assumes the leadership of the radical left and is ready to keep advancing in the continent, as far as the oil geopolitics let him.

• In the intergovernmental meeting Russia-Venezuela, Chavez regretted the end of the communist revolution. “Latin America is a Stalingrad of the ideas now, and it will be what Russia could not”.

• The regime accuses the CIA, FBI and Colombian DAS of participating in the assassination planning of the attorney Danilo Anderson.

• The Attorney General’s Office suggests that in the planning of the crime, a Cardinal who is a friend of Benedict XVI was present.

• Apathy in front of parliamentary elections of December 4^th.

• At the last moment, European Union and OAS observers are allowed.

In our report as of October 28th, we stated that Mar del Plata’s events were going to be newsworthy. There were a Summit and an anti-Summit. In both, Chavez played a fundamental role. Inter-American Dialogue offered its analysis on Thursday 10^th. In the opinion of this qualified Center of Studies, Peter Hakim, Chavez scored a hit. The same has been stated by respectable Latin American and European analysts. Hakim’s interesting contribution was the figure he used: A lighting that illuminated a continent politically and ideologically divided.  Newsweek used another simile. It gave its cover front to Hurricane Hugo. The Financial Times titled: Chavez leads the charge against US. Mar del Plata must be examined objectively. The meeting of presidents had the purpose of giving the AFTA a new breath. Chavez anticipated that the seaside city was going to be the scenario of the AFTA’s funeral. The final declaration resembled a funeral card, although Mr. Shannon, recently appointed as Assistant Secretary of State, insisted that the corpse was in good health. Peter Hakim was not that optimistic. Chavez –he said- did not bury the AFTA, but he managed to put it in the freezer. Moreover, from now, Chefs of State’s meetings were Chavez attend may not be held within a privacy framework. In his program, Hello President of Sunday 13^th, he presented the videos of meetings held behind closed doors in the IV Summit. He anticipated that there will be complains from his continental peers, “but the world has to know the truth, the continental geopolitics. Those videos show disagreements between Fox and Kirchner. He also broadcasted unknown fragments of certain Lula’s intervention, which in Chavez’s opinion was “such a great speech”. México claimed as illegal the broadcasting of such videos, because the meetings were private and respecting this there was a previous agreement. 

This is true, but México is Latin American’s paradigm of prudent and pragmatic diplomacy in front of the Lieutenant Colonel. Fox said the Chavez’s intolerance prevented from subscribing the agreement supported by a solid majority. Chavez answered him: “President Fox, It is very sad that you acted in the Summit as a puppy of the empire, as a president who kneels down before the empire”. It was demanded an explanation from the Palace of Eagles. The Venezuelan ambassador was urged to attend to the Mexican Chancellor’s Office, and he said he had nothing to explain. Secretary Derbez expressed he was not satisfied and called repeatedly to his Venezuelan peer, Alí Rodriguez, who finally answered and a few hours later issued a statement considering this matter over. In Hello President on Sunday 13^th, Chavez insulted Fox again, addressing him threatening phrases. The Mexican Government demanded formal apologies. How far is the conflict going? There will be surely withdrawal of ambassadors, but the Mexican government denies the possibility of breaking off diplomatic relations. Between Fox and Chavez there were never empathy, but Venezuela is a very important trade partner for Mexico. Just a few presidents of the Continent and Europe like Chavez, but they cultivate his friendship or at least avoid his enmity.

For Kirchner, apart from actual or pretended ideological affinities, Chavez is his Santa Claus. Fox questioned the host’s quality, and Kirchner answered that his duty was not to make a good impression to the visitants. Strictly speaking, the short circuit began when Fox requested a bilateral meeting and the Argentinean president denied the possibility because of his “busy agenda”. Effectively, the time available was been reserved to Chavez. Apart from the public act to subscribe new cooperation agreements, where they exchanged compliments, Kirchner had requested to Chavez a private meeting to solve a situation that Venezuela had with the Argentinean group Techint, whose iron and steel company (Sidor) was in the commander’s target to be controlled by the State again.

The businessman Paolo Rocca (head officer of Techint), and Cristina Kirchner, whose campaign for Senator, according to the journal Clarín, was financed by Rocca, attended that meeting. According to the sources of Clarín, for Rocca the meeting was very good. “The commitment of Techint with Venezuela was reconfirmed, and points to the long term”.

Continental Leader with a Project

The other Summit, the Summit of the Peoples, confirmed Chavez as the leader of the Latin American radical left. At least Chavez assumes that role. Fidel Castro and the radical left support him and need him. The lieutenant colonel, with his aggressive rhetoric, has achieved to capitalize the regional discomfort against Washington. A lucid mind, Michael Shifter, warned in the meeting of Inter-American Dialogue that the Latin American trust toward U.S. has evaporated. It has also in other spaces, we may note.  The vote in the United Nations against Cuba embargo was a diagnosis of Bush’s foreign policy. U.S. was accompanied by Israel, Palau and Marshall Islands. Micronesia abstained. Bush is unlikely, in his current domestic and international circumstances, to pay attention to what most of the elites that influence him still consider the backyard. This is Chavez’s bet, and his conviction that Venezuelan exports and reserves of oil are still indispensable for the United States.

Upon concluding the Summits, Chavez declared that in Mar del Plata began a new history for Latin America. True or not, Chavez believes it, and he thinks or intents to keep advancing as far as the oil, instrument of the revolutionary geopolitics, let him. In his Hello President remembered that he has been taking about the axis Caracas-Brasilia-Buenos Aires for years, as an alliance to the South American liberation from the northern Empire. “We integrate to Mercosur to contribute the political experience of the Venezuelan process. Times have changed. Now we have the awareness of the peoples on our side”. In the broadcasting of the videos of the private meeting of the IV Summit he highlighted the phases that he liked the most from Lula’s speech, who he called “my compadre”, and reproached Tabare Vasquez due to his conciliatory tone.

Chavez chairs the Andean Community of Nations, but he affirms that Venezuela has nothing to look for in the CAN. However, he wants to purchase oil infrastructure from Colombia, according to the report of the magazine Semana. PDVSA intends to bid in the auctions of Cartagena and Ecogas refineries, distributors of 40% of the gas that this country consumes. The Bolivian president candidate, Jorge Quiroga, reports Chavez’s interference in the president elections, where abundant petrodollars try to ensure the Evo Morales’ victory. In Ecuador he is cautious, due to the situation with Gutiérrez and Palacios’ resistance to cooperation offers.

In Peru he observes and waits, confident that Lourdes Flores will not be Toledo’s successor. In Nicaragua he plays with Daniel Ortega and in México he hopes that the new nuances in Lopez Obrador’s words be in form but not in content. Ramsey Clark, former U.S. Attorney General, just pointed out that the Venezuelan revolution is the most important event in the XXI century so far. How far is this situation going? The answers are varied. In the recent intergovernmental meeting Russia-Venezuela, before the Vice Prime Minister Zhukov, Chavez regretted the end of the communist revolution. “Latin America is a Stalingrad of the ideas now, and it will be what Russia could not”.

Caribbean melodrama and elections

There is little interest about the elections of December 4^th.  The public opinion is distracted with the last soup opera mounted by the government. The arrest of Patricia Poleo, the director of El Nuevo País, a strong opposition journal;  Nelson Mezerhane, a businessman and stockholder of the TV news channel Globovisión; the son of the anti-Castrist activist Salvador Romaní, and two generals, one active and one retired, was ordered by a tribunal. They are charged for the intellectual authorship of the attorney Danilo Anderson’s assassination. The Attorney General’s Office presents as witness an alleged Colombian doctor who affirms that he was present in several meetings between the accused ones and FBI, CIA and DAS agents, aimed to plan the assassination. DAS issued a statement certifying that according to the data base of the National Registry, the record of said witness includes impersonation, fraud, use of false documents, and he has been under arrest for usurping the medical profession. The new version of the Attorney’s Office, suggests that in the meetings to arrange the assassination, the Cardinal Castillo Lara, who held high posts in The Vatican and is a personal friend of the Pope Benedict XVI, was present. The scandal feeds the indifference of Venezuelan voters.

The apathy is understood, because this election is a new plebiscite made by an autocratic and almighty president, in front of an frighten population, an impoverished mass induced to vote in exchange for benefits, and an electoral arbitrator controlled by the regime, which up to this point, has not even made available the voter registration. Political parties are tolerated as a facade of revolution in democracy, but carrying out their typical activity of opposition is impeded or restricted. Minimal conditions to allow participation has been pointlessly requested so far: to count the votes issued by the voting machines, eliminate electronic books, publish the electoral record and limit military interference in the vote. 

The European Union and OAS achieved a last-minute authorization to send observation missions; with an excellent intention and the best purposes. But, like Ruben Perina, chef of OAS’s mission said, they do not come to qualify or to disqualify. But it is expected that his report answers the following question: ¿Were Venezuelan elections abided by the patterns included in the Inter-American Democratic Charter and the International Electoral Law endorsed by the European Union?