February 15th., 2006

Chávez’s Foreign Policy

Summary

• According to Blair, Venezuela ought to abide by rules of the international community.

• Chávez replied by accusing the British Prime Minister of being immoral, shameless and a Bush lackey.

• Qualified Iranian spokespeople point to the very special relationship between their country and Venezuela.

• Chávez expels the Military Attaché from The U. S. Embassy in Caracas and threatens to close The Citgo Refinery in that country.

• According to Chávez, in 2005, 20 billion dollars were earmarked for international cooperation, in his third-world leadership areas.

• “To face the armed intervention of imperialism 100,000 Russian rifles are not enough.  We need 1,000,000 armed men.”

• According to the Russians, Venezuela has become one of its main arms purchasers.

• According to the Lt. Col., 2006 will be one of the most difficult years of the Revolution.

• Dread dawns on his loss of popularity.

• Chávez is disturbed by the ghost of abstention and the reports of observers.

• The international community is ready to cooperate towards the rescue of trust in voting.

• Chávez’s strategy is to target Bush as electoral opponent.

• His campaign slogan:  10 million votes to defeat Bush.

• The opposition will have to create a new majority to erase the question:  After Chávez, what?

Chávez maintains his international VIP role.  News agencies reported terms he used to refer to Prime Minister Blair:  immoral; shameless; a Bush lackey, while utilizing some creole profanity.  The shrilled language highlighted the first important British statement on the Venezuelan regime.  In the Questions Session of The British Parliament (Wednesday 8), Blair said that Venezuela ought to comply with rules of the international community.  This call is most meaningful.  It is also significant that it took place in parliamentary framework scheduled for domestic policy and top foreign policy matters.  On Thursday 9, Chávez charged anew the British Government of planning, with The U. S., the invasion of Iran.  Analysts link Blair’s statement with Chávez’s support for the development of Iran’s nuclear program.  Morteza Alvin, Iran’s Ambassador in Madrid said this week (EFE) that since Chávez reaching power, there has been a very special relationship with Venezuela.  For our President Ahmadyneyad, the relationship with Chávez is closer; both understand each other perfectly and cooperate very well  .  The National Assembly hosted a Delegation from The Iranian Parliament this week.  Its President, Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, expressed gratitude for Venezuela’s vote in the IAEA and underscored the support for Chávez by his government due to their common causes.  The President of The Venezuelan National Assembly –in his welcome- affirmed the political will to go on marching together within the objectives of both nations.

The week before the Lt. Col. kept international news agencies busy.  In the anniversary speech of his seven years in power he stated that John Correa –U. S. Naval Attaché- was persona non-grata and ordered his expulsion on charges of espionage.  Washington retaliated equally by expelling Jenny Figueredo Frías –a close relative of Chávez- working as Political Officer of The Revolution at our Washington Embassy.  This is the first time something of this nature happens within the Venezuela-U. S. relationships.  Verbal power between Chávez and the U. S. Government acquired a new coloring.  In Aló Presidente (5 Sunday), he threatened  with the shutdown of CITGO OIL REFINERIES  in the U. S. while posing the question of how this would spike oil prices.  [The shutdown would eliminate the supply of 1.2 million daily barrels of crude and 300,000 barrels of refined oil].  On the other hand, John Negroponte, U. S. National Director of Intelligence, stated before a U. S. Senate Committee, that Chávez’s Government is the main security challenge for his country.  A Pentagon Document published recently, echoes this view {Quaterly Defense Review}.  It is traditional for these documents to review general trends without naming countries.  No Latin American country is named in The Review 2001.  Venezuela is the only one mentioned in the 2005 Document.

On Friday 3, from La Habana, together with Castro, he relabeled the U. S. Government as  murderer and genocidal.  “We’ll do all we can to smash the empire, in this century, to save humanity.” At this time, both leaders signed new cooperation accords.  Chávez’s brother, Venezuelan Ambassador in La Habana, said that binational trade (USD1,200 in 2005) shall surpass 2 billion in 2006.  El Nacional (02-12-06) published international cooperation figures, announced by the President through 2005, over 20 billion dollars.  Cuba gets 2.2 billion besides oil supplies in amounts only known by both governments.  If we believe words of the President, the 20 billion were destined to Argentina; Paraguay; Uruguay; Brazil; Bolivia; Ecuador; The Caribbean; The U. S. and Africa.  El Nacional only dealt with the President’s figures while bypassing those of spokespeople of The Foreign Ministry.

THE ELECTORAL YEAR

The anniversary of the seven years in power, the celebration of the 1992 frustrated coup and the feverish advanced Chávez campaign are some of the signs for a reading of his strategy towards the presidential election come December.  The framework of activities aimed  at reinforcing the message that Venezuela is getting ready to face Imperialism’s armed intervention while appealing to the people’s patriotism.  In all his interventions, he repeats, again and again, that Bush is the enemy to conquer.  On 4 Saturday, before his followers, he underscored the armed defense of the Revolution.  He aims at –so he said- speeding up the make of The Military Reserve and The Territorial Guard for which the 100,000 Russian rifles fall short.  “We need a million armed men and women.”  This figure reflects the statement of The Inspector General of The Armed Forces, who maintained  that over one million people have registered in The Reserve Forces.  Last Sunday, he announced his visits to Moscow o Beijing to purchase weapons in response to The White House veto upon Brazil and Spain to do said trade with Venezuela.  In several instances, he has said that he is negotiating with the Russians to purchase MIG fighters.  Mikhail Dmitriyeb, a top spokesperson of that Government, Venezuela has become one of its important clients.

In Aló Presidente (5 Sunday), he prioritized the political-electoral.  He predicted that this will be one of the most difficult years for the Revolution because The Empire will exhaust efforts to prevent his re-election.  He anticipated a doctoring of polls –financed by Washington- to show his loss of popularity.  He charged private media with complicity and asked not to be duped by polls to be published through the year.  He called on Chavistas to stop internal rifts; to keep their unity as the Revolution is in peril and the project of an independent homeland is endangered.  He maintains his Messianic discourse.  “We’ve only set the foundations of what we’re going to build.”  This is the heart of the message.  He answers critics of his mandate by blaming rulers before him.  He travels countrywide proclaiming he has tens of millions of dollars, with which he proposes, to launch new social missions, job projects, security, land distribution, housing, hospitals and that XXI Century Socialism shall end painful scarcities inherited from past governments.

In the 2004 Referendum, the NEC gave it 6 million votes.  In the Governors Elections –October 2004- abstention rose to 49 %.  In Municipal Elections (August 2005), it reached 69 % [NEC numbers].  Officialdom, notably diminished, had a landslide victory as millions that had called for the RR, abstained assuming fraud.  In the parliamentary elections, Chávez went all out to change the scenario.  He asked for 10 million votes as witness of a commitment to the Revolution.  The goal was assumed as a State matter.  Opposition groups decided not to participate and the Caudillo’s power of convocation was stripped naked.  The NEC says abstention reached 80 % and votes for officialdom barely surpassed 3 million.  Venezuela Today (12-14-05) spoke on preliminary reports by observers, so critical on anomalies, arbiter partiality and lack of transparency that Chávez charged it was a Bush-OAS-European Union plot to destabilize Venezuela.  He used his oil diplomacy to cancel the effects of the reports.  At this point, it seems said efforts have been in vain.  The international community appears to be ready to cooperate in the rescue of voter trust as a tool towards the resolution of political conflicts.

Chávez political party (MVR) is proposing an internal debate of its plan for the 2006 Campaign.  According to the text, the central strategic reference is to defeat Bush by re-electing Chávez with 10 million votes.  The campaign opponents are Chávez vs. Bush.  The whole document gives top priority to the need of neutralizing Bush’s attempts to bear on The OAS and The EU.  Likewise, not to portray the image of Chávez as an autocrat:  it is, indeed, a dispute between Neo-Liberalism and XXI Century Socialism.  The ghost of abstention also worries politicians that swim with the current.  Others do not yet accept abstention.  They consider elections as a key sign for 2006 which should not be evaded.  They deem the majority of Venezuelans keep faith in democratic values while yearning an alternative leadership credible and convincing which would arouse hope and may better conduct public affairs.  There are names rising in electoral horizons.  For sure, others will also appear.  If someone manages to tune into the national country –using Bogotá jargon- Chávez shall have an opponent next 3 December.  The task is activate a demobilized society, sick of hopelessness, distrustful of electoral arbiters, partly, threatened by the military and recent repression and partly by the invitation to share petrodollars.

In summary, to create a new majority which may wash out the fear of the question:  After Chávez, What?  The date closes the yearly calendar of Latin American presidential elections, yet under uncertainty in key countries.  Also in Venezuela, if the hope of change for the better may be electorally embodied .