March 4, 2006

Presidential Election

Summary:

• The opposition must work for those who reject the Chavez administration and reject a path towards totalitarianism.

• The solution is a political and democratic one, not military.

• Three trends are visible from the opposition, but emphasis underlies in a contender of unity and how to identify him/her.

• The names of Julio Borges, Roberto Smith, Manuel Rosales and Teodoro Petkoff are on the table.

• An outsider is also possible.

• Chavez’s weak sides: oil income squandering, poverty increase, a drop of Human Development Index, the highest unemployment figures in 50 years, a health care system in “intensive care”, 80% of population express dissatisfaction over government management in the face of much felt needs.

• His strongholds are a populist model nurtured by oil income, a well designed propagandistic strategy and the use and abuse of communication media.

• Doubts in the opposition: Chavez’s words in the National Assembly: ”We made it and we will never leave!”

• If conditions guaranteeing electoral transparency are not met, Chavez may very well become the sole runner.

• While some private investors and multinationals expressed their concerns, others such as Kirchner rejoice over their King Midas…

• Surveys indicate that absenteeism on 4 December is but the tip of the iceberg of a process of disenchantment and frustration

Chavez can be beaten in an election. This is beginning to be the most common phrase heard or read. As the concept spreads, the need for new leaders that can mobilize the electorate demanding fair elections and an impartial arbitrator takes on new force; as well as, a leadership capable of convincing the majority of a possible future of democratic values and social development. The population is tired of ever growing poverty and disappointed over revolutionary words. The opposition has to work with those who reject the seven year government and refuse to take the road to totalitarianism.

The solution is not a military one, but a political and democratic, by means of mobilization the population and elections.  Such were the expressions of Luis Ugalde, Dean of the Catholic University, who enjoys the sympathies of a national audience. His message has perfect timing. The country has been waiting for a dialogue between Church and State, and the statements of the new Archbishop of Caracas, Monsignor Urosa, the only Latin American Cardinal among the 15 recently appointed by Pope Benedict XVI. The Episcopal Conference, presided by the Archbishop of Maracaibo, Monsignor Santana, as well as Cardinal Urosa, have been adamant in their request for conditions that will help restore confidence in the electoral system and the civic duty to vote.

Three trends have been observed in sectors non-aligned with the lieutenant colonel: 1) those who condition their electoral participation to the compliance of constitutional rules and electoral provisions without further delay; 2) radical absentees, who argue that Chavez will never leave power even if beaten in elections and it would be immoral to attend rigged elections which, in turn, the President will use to legitimize the reelection; and, 3) those who believe a new leadership must emerge committed to demanding adequate electoral conditions and a political platform. A candidate emerging from the union of opposition groups and a method to identify such a candidate is the underlying issue. Two proposals have been made: primary elections or an agreement to rely on survey results.

The time factor seems to impose itself, nevertheless. Chavez is dedicated to his reelection campaign and any contender will have only months to prepare. This is Julio Borge’s argument, candidate for Primero Justicia (Justice First), and Roberto Smith, who is walking cross-country with the proposal of making Venezuela a first world country; and, of those who have asked Teodoro Petkoff and Manuel Rosales to present their candidacies. The latter is governor of the State of Zulia and Petkoff is director of Tal Cual, a journal he has used to profile himself as the man who face up to Chavez, according to his own definition given in interviews which may well be considered his announcement to run for office.  Smith and Borges both have the credentials. Everything indicates that one of the four will be the contender of a united opposition, unless a non identified outsider emerges.

Hypothesis Of Pacific Change

An opposition candidate is capable of competing with a transparent election and a trustworthy electoral judge. Chavez’s highest audience is among the poor, encouraged by all the promised benefits. Yet, it is not difficult to prove that poverty has become even more pathetic in the past years when oil revenues have meant and income of over 400 billions dollars. The number of homes in total poverty and within the limits of critical poverty is the highest recorded in the last 50 years. The Human Development Index has dropped, according to UNDP, as well as income per capita.

The economic growth claimed in Hello President is unconvincing for millions of unemployed, the number of which is, too, the highest in the last 50 years. The wonders of Barrio Adentro have turned into strange visions for those who have to suffer a health care system declared in “intensive care” by Medical Federation. The surveys indicate an unsound assessment of public office in the face of much felt needs such as, first of all, personal safety, whereby over 80% of those surveyed expressed their dissatisfaction. The President dedicates parts of his speeches to placing the blame of negative results on the inefficiency of State burocracy and corruption, but is still in the company of the same team of military men and political activists that surrounded him since his days of conspiracy. The latest scandal deals with the sugar mills in the state of Barinas, his home state. The recently elected National Assembly put up a show and began an investigation, which was suddenly dropped when billions of Bolivares were unaccounted for under the administration of military officers closely related to Chavez.

Chavez has begun his reelection campaign in spite of the fact that by law it is at this time illegal. An astute card dealer, he has dealt the cards of a winner.  High oil prices, unaccounted management of government funds, high tax collection and the capacity to indebt the country have allowed him to develop a highly profitable populist model. He makes full use of effective propaganda strategies developed by excellent political media professionals, foreign most of all. The messages are simple, repetitive and create a sense of eternal presence. These are broadcasted through government owned radio and television stations, and by means of a network of alternative media created by the regime. Private media is forced to transmit, together with government owned media on prime time schedules, 10 minute documentaries praising Chavez’s government management.

An intimidating effect also plays a role among society. From his seat of power, as absolute ruler, Chavez flings his threats with a reasonable amount of credibility. On Sunday 17, from Hello President, he announced he was studying the possibility of making presidential reelections indefinite, by means of a plebiscite not contemplated by the Constitution. Members of Parliament, favorable to Chavez, indicated they would analyze the proposal with great interest. A member of the Supreme Court (TSJ by its Spanish acronym), probably the one with highest influence, Velasquez Alvaray, has published the text of the constitutional reform that would make indefinite reelections possible.  On occasion of the National Assembly Annual Address, Chavez stated: “We made it, and we will never leave!” Assembly members, military officials, Supreme Court judges, members of the National Electoral Council (CNE), the General Attorney, the National Ombudsman and every personality in high office stood up and applauded frantically. Hard facts can be added to the speech: political prisoners, rigged trials, legal prosecution against dissidents, and the so called apartheid which makes second class citizens out of those who signed for the recall referendum, numbed by the atmosphere created by a police-military regime, subject to the omnipresent rule of one sole leader.

From an electoral perspective, an analyst would claim that the President is a well positioned candidate. True. But his key instrument is the CNE, the unveiled partisanship of which was denounced at the time of the recall referendum by the OAS, the Carter Center and underlined by the withdrawal of international observers’ missions from the recent elections of December 4. Substitution of CNE authorities has become a major issue for almost the entire country including a significant sector of Chavez partisans who —convinced they have enough votes to win the election— want a suspicious-free process.  From a critical standpoint, Petkoff has warned: “If we end up with of clone of some sort of the present CNE, voting machines that are not auditable, application of finger print technology or an unpublished Electoral Register or no manual count of ballots and a crass government head star, it would be very hard to participate, it would mean supporting a charade.”

Entrepreneurial groups are summoned to Miraflores and asked to invest within strategic alliances. They applaud and smile. Their economic advisers warn them that Venezuela has the highest inflation rate in Latin American and that government policies make it impossible to stop higher increase as well as a significant monetary depreciation inevitable. Legal advisers remind them the courts pass sentences as per Miraflores orders.  These, too, are the reasons oil multinationals looking avidly at oil and gas reserves have chosen to withdraw before having to face potential conflicts in courtrooms.

In terms of surveys, it is necessary to remember Chavez announced that Washington would be sponsoring results that in the coming months would place his contender close to him, making the claim of fraud possible when he wins in December. He probably took into account the surveys indicating that absenteeism in 4D is but the tip of the iceberg in a process of disenchantment and frustration, and that the Missions are beginning to loose their emotional drive owing to growing unsatisfied expectations and also the reluctance of sharing a governmental speech favorable to an alliance with Cuba and the disappearance of private property. 

If a political contender emerges from the union of opposition factors, Bush will not be Chavez’s sole contender. In the case of Petkoff, that would be an argument hard to sustain, since Washington has denied Petkoff a visa of entry to the United States.

The elections on 3 December represent the opportunity for political change, an element of fundamental importance for Venezuela and the entire region, if the recommendations of International Observation are met. The European Union’s final report is imminent