March 16th., 2006

The European Union Speaks Up

Summary:

• The Report of the European Union gives oxygen to the Electoral environment.

• It asks for an independent electoral arbiter, guarantee of the secrecy of the vote, audit of the electronic system and the electoral registry.

• Chavez understands the difficulty of aspiring to leadership in the world’s left wing, without an appearance of respect towards democratic forms.

• Chavez is who will decide if Constitutional provisions will be respected in the integration of the new National Electoral Counsel.

• A document signed by people of relevance in the national life, calls for social organization and citizen’s participation to confront the regime and facilitate the restoration of the democratic system.

• Candidacy of Marcel Granier?

• The facts unveil a double play.  Chavez wants contenders, but he cultivates abstention of the ample social sector that pronounced itself on August 2004, to revoking his mandate.

• The alleged arguments of Fidel Castro, to avoid the lack of legitimacy as sole candidate.

• Meetings between the key actors of the opposition to conform a candidacy and unity strategy.

• Using the tribune of the candidacy to reactivate the opposition sector.

• Chavez popularity decreases and the unconformity for the policy of giving away oil abroad increases.

• The polls reveal that the candidacy of the opposition has room to conform a majority.

• Venezuela still lacks a true Rule of Law.

Venezuela does not escape to the electoral hurricane that shakes the region.  Chavez adversaries doubt that he is willing to turn in his power by an electoral way and they condition their participation in the elections to fair game, specially, to the compliance of Constitutional provisions that govern suffrage. The final Report of the Electoral Observation Mission of the European Union, submitted this week by the European Deputy Silva Peneda, has oxygenated the environment.  It confirms the preliminary report dated December 6, 2005, backed by the European Parliament and the Spanish Parliament, denounced by Chavez as a maneuver from Washington to destabilize his regime.  (Venezuela Today, December 14 and 19, 2005). 

The Report, in sweetened terms, endorses the questioning of the system and the electoral arbiter.  It acknowledges that the scarce participation on December 4 evidenced the devalorization of the vote as an instrument to express the political will of the citizens.  The fundamentals of the Report are its recommendations: Choosing an independent National Electoral Counsel (CNE), guaranteeing the secrecy of the vote, audit of the mechanized system and the electoral registry.  These proposals could contribute to unify the requests of the opposition.

In March 5 past Hello President, Chavez stated once again that an abstention maneuver was on, godfathered by the US.  He warned that if the Opposition had no candidates, he will propose a Constitutional reform in order to stay until the year 2031.  Only a few doubt that Chavez´ purpose is to retain power indefinitely, but it calls to attention his concern about being a sole candidate.  Some analysts affirm that Chavez understands the difficulty of aspiring to a strong leadership in the world’s left wing, without an appearance of respect towards the democratic forms of his own country.  In Chile, it was notorious how cold he was treated by personalities of various latitudes that were celebrating Michelle Bachelet´s investiture as a symbolic figure of modern socialism, a model contrary to Chavez´ XXI century socialism.

The National Assembly (AN), upon Constitutional mandate, must designate the CNE.  It commenced the established procedure, according to which, of the 5 members, one corresponds to the Moral Power (high ranking government officials); another to the Faculties of Legal and Political Sciences of the national universities and three others must be nominated by the civil society.  The first signals are not auspicious.  The Assembly is one color and it assumed the crushing majority in the Committee that will nominate for the civil society.  Chavez will decide if the Counsel will integrate with independents, not linked to political organizations, as ordered by the Constitution, or with a predominance of party men on whom he may trust.

Double Play

Tuesday March 7, Marcel Granier, emblematic entrepreneur of the private means of communication, disclosed a document signed by people of relevance in the national life.  Presented as the people’s mandate to the nation, it calls for social organization and citizen’s participation to confront the regime and facilitate the restoration of the democratic system.  As per the document’s characteristics, some analysts construe it as a platform for the eventual presidency candidacy of Granier.  The President immediately defied him to nominate himself, adorning his defiance with his usual verbal violence.  Granier is attending this weekend the reunion of the SIP in Quito.  The new official spokesperson, the Minister Lara, declared that Quito would be used as the international launching of the candidacy.  On Friday 10, Teodoro Petkoff traveled to Chile, invited to an international seminar on governance in Latin America.  He also attended to an invitation for the investiture of Ms. Bachelet.  The President’s rhetoric became present once again, defying the journalist to make his nomination effective.  To the Governor of the Zulia State, Manual Rosales, also mentioned as an eventual candidate, he accused of the auspice of an autonomous statute to separate Zulia State of the rest of the country.  Accordingly, criminal accusations are being activated against him and the whole official choir can be heard in synchronicity, giving Rosales national stature.  The candidate nominated by Primero Justicia, Julio Borges, has often times been the object of Chavez defiant and offensive language.  The government attacks him in a systematic and unfounded way, such that it turns obvious the interest in placing him in the collective memory.

Chavez wants contenders in the presidential elections of December 3.  He is conscious that the candidates nominated or not, condition the participation of requirements such as the ones detailed by the European Union.  Will he concede to them?  The facts unveil a double play. 

On the one part, vague signals that he may comply, formally and at a very slow pace, the Constitutional requirements; on the other, acts and messages that maintain the abstention sentiment of December 4 alive:  signs that the new CNE will be the same or similar to the current one; rejection to the petitions of transparency; daily projection of the omnipotence of the regime; permanent demonstration that the state’s organs are concentrated in the President, and that it is he who decides what is permitted or prohibited; exhibition and justification of the military content assumed by the Revolution; efforts to convey that the presidential alternation is not acceptable for the ideology and the strategy of the Revolution.  In sum, feeding the conviction that one can not imagine Chavez placing the presidential symbols on the contender that will ruin him in the electoral ballots.  He wants contenders, but as a matter of fact, he cultivates abstention of the ample social sector that pronounced itself on August 2004, to revoking his mandate.

In diplomatic circles of Caracas it is affirmed that Fidel Castro, convinced that Chavez will easily win the Presidential election, advises to facilitate the participation of contenders.  Castro, according to such versions, believes that Washington tries for the December 4 repetition, as an argument of Chavez lack of legitimacy, who must take advantage of “the clear popular support” that he now has, to achieve the lack of accompaniment from the international community to imperialism and its will to destabilize the Revolution.  We add that the government knew about the final Report.  The CNE published a piece of news, on the entire page, with the “kind” extracts of the Report, whose text concludes manifesting the disposition to monitor the presidential elections.  If the conditions on which Silva Peneda insisted are met, the Mission will have to grant legitimacy of the coming event of December 3.

Unitary Candidacy Vs. Chavez

The radical thesis of abstention looses strength in the opposition.  The February poll of Consultores 21 places Borges as the best positioned against Chavez, notwithstanding the internal problems faced by Primero Justicia.  He travels through the country announcing that he will be a candidate and he uses well the means of communications to spell out his reasons.  It is an argument used by friends of Petkoff to reward him.  It is informed or speculated about meetings between the key actors of the opposition to conform a candidacy and unity strategy.  By the opinions made public by the possible contenders of Chavez, the result of the meetings may be successful.  It is accepted that the work can be done simultaneously to obtain participation conditions and use the candidate’s tribune to reactivate the ample sector that differs from Chavez.  A unity candidacy and an effective campaign may capitalize the disgust of the government’s performance.

In the mentioned poll, the index of the ones that consider Chavez as guilty of the country’s problems rises.  His popularity percentage decreases as well as the percentage of those who evaluate him as able to resolve problems.  The sum of his negative aspects (he talks too much, arrogant, liar, aggressive) is very high.  40% of the interviewed believes that Chavez tries to establish an authoritarian regime.  In this one and other reliable polls, lack of security, high cost of living, unemployment, housing and health problems keep appearing, as well as the most felt needs, not satisfied in spite of the abundant oil revenue.  In the focus group the general unconformity upon the policy of giving away oil abroad and the rejection of the proposal of a similar system than that of Cuba is revealed.

There is a work space for the opposition’s candidacy.  According to Consultores 21, Chavez unconditional are 22%, a percentage that coincides with the valid vote obtained in December 4.  The hard core of those who reject the regime is close to 30%, and it may convert to a majority consolidating those who consider themselves as opposition, recuperating the backup of the undecided and capturing a part of those who condition their trust in Chavez. 

The followers of an active presence in the electoral campaign point out that the candidates would be accepted as valid spokespersons of the opposition and could denounce in important scenarios of the international community, issues such as autocracy, militarism, the use of oil to export the revolution, the strategic alliance with Iran, the violation of human rights, the politicization of the judicial system, restrictions to means of communications, harassment to the opposition, specially to journalists, the severe penalization of the so called opinion crimes, and in general, the democratic deficit within the process that will end up in the presidential election.  As back up elements, they count with the reports from the Human Rights Interamerican Commission, Amnesty International, Human Rights, Journalists without Frontiers, SIP, and all the group of institutions and personalities of high international qualification that coincide that in spite of the government’s attempts to cover its acts with legality, Venezuela still lacks a true Rule of Law.