May 1st., 2006

CHAVEZ EXHIBITS THE POWER OF OIL

Summary

• Chavez and his oil against the continental free trade proposal.

•  Evo Morales found a sponsor in La Habana.

•  Assured markets for Bolivian soy and coca.

•  Support for Humala creates diplomatic conflict between Lima and Caracas.

•  Peruvians request the filing of a complaint against Chavez before the Permanent Council and demand a condemnatory statement.

•  Oil to promote Daniel Ortega’s candidacy in Nicaragua.

•  Time magazine considers Chavez as Bush’s most important critic of the south of the border.

•  A demagogue swimming in oil money is weaken democracy and intends to destabilize the region.

•  Authoritarian personalism hits the Andean Community: Chavez orders the withdrawal from the CAN

• Confrontation against the U.S. without measuring the damages.

• Venezuelan most serious problem has become a serious regional problem.

•  The Chavist parliament evidenced regime’s essence: appearance of legality and an iron control over institutions.

•  The new CNE consists of four admitted supporters of Chavez and an independent.

•  Agreement in that the CNE, to legitimize itself, would have to listen to the recommendations of the European Union and the OAE.

•  Chavez is not comfortable in transparent elections.

•  Conditions for a unified opposition candidacy.

CHAVEZ EXHIBITS THE POWER OF OIL

Chavez’s international performance in the last weeks has been intense and obstreperous. The agenda finished on Friday 27^th in La Habana, where he arrived accompanied by Daniel Ortega, appointed as his candidate. Castro and Evo Morales were waiting for them at the airplane ladder. The next day, at the Revolution Square, they commemorated the first anniversary of the 49 agreements between Cuba and Venezuela on the Strategic Plan for the application of the ALBA, Spanish acronym for the alternative promoted by Chavez, with Venezuelan oil, against the North-American proposal for continental free trade. The celebration program included the entering of Bolivia to the ALBA and the signing of a trilateral Trade Agreement that, according to Morales, “would help to cushion the crisis of the Andean group, in case that Bolivia decides to follow Venezuela’s steps and also retires from the Andean Community”. In press conference, Chavez informed that Venezuela assumed the commitment of increasing the oil and asphalt supplies for Bolivia as well as the diesel it may require, and giving all the collaboration necessary to develop the petrochemical industry. Other important aspects of the collaboration include a special fund of 100 million dollars for projects with indigenous people, a donation of 30 million for social needs and 5,000 scholarships for Bolivian students. As Morales explained, “the agreement is a fair trade proposal that ensures markets for Bolivian soy, coca and many other products”.

From La Habana, Chavez continued the battle fought in support of Ollanta Humala. Before leaving the island, he brought forward the traditional celebration of Labor Day. He stated that his administration would break off relations with Peru if Alan Garcia is elected President, and called him names such as crook, scoundrel and thief. “If such a man becomes president, this money might be stolen from me at any summit” he said, while showing a bill before the TV cameras. Lima reacted with a note of protest, and in response, Chavez reiterated the epithets against Garcia. He added that Toledo “defends him because they are crocodiles from the same water hole”. He said that the conflict has arisen from his criticism against the free trade agreement signed by Peru and Colombia with the U.S., which forms part of the imperial plan accepted by the administrations of Lima and Bogotá. Peru submitted a report before the Observation Mission of the OAS, presently at Lima, qualifying the facts as an undue interference in internal affairs. The Venezuelan Minister of Foreign Affairs rejected the submission of the case before the OAS. Meanwhile, Toledo’s administration removed its ambassador in Caracas, claiming the “persistent and flagrant interference in internal affairs of Peru, in clear violation of the principles and norms of international law”.  The main newspapers and political leaders request the filing of a complaint against Chavez before the Permanent Council and demand a condemnatory statement.

Demagoguery and Oil Strike the Region.

A complaint from Enrique Bolaños, President of Nicaragua, was received in Caracas for reasons similar to the Peruvian ones. On Tuesday 25^th Chavez, standing beside Daniel Ortega, signed an agreement with Sandinist mayors for oil supply based on a long-term, soft credit, and also offered a financing bank for agricultural producers, small industry and craftsmen. Bolaños declared that giving oil to Sandinist mayoralties is an illegal intromission in the electoral campaign. On the other hand, Rene Preval, President-Elect of Haiti, was received in Miraflores, the Presidential House, not to complain about anything but quite the contrary: to evaluate the cooperation agreements to be in force from May 14th, when Preval becomes president. According to Chavez’s statements, Haiti will be incorporated into Petrocaribe in order to solve its energy problems with suitable financing for its economic situation.

Time magazine has included Chavez among the 100 most influential personalities of 2006, for considering him Bush’s most important critic of the south of the border and recognizing the generosity that his oil allows him. Donald Rumsfeld evaluates Chavez’s regime as a security problem, in keeping with a report by experts submitted to him last March. In Venezuela, -the report states- “a demagogue swimming in oil money is weaken democracy and intends to destabilize the region”. Chavez answers that his struggle is for the sovereignty of the peoples. On Friday 28^th, in one of his famous mandatory TV and radio broadcasts, he stated: “Where there is something to do, or a little drop of oil to contribute, Venezuela will be there”.

The analysts of Latin-American affairs agree in recognizing the protagonist role of Chavez in the opposition of the FTAA. This time, they attribute the effect of an earthquake to his speech in La Asunción the last 19^th, when he announced the withdrawal from the Andean Community and criticized the functioning of MERCOSUR. In Brazil and Argentina it was received with surprise and displeasure; the Andean countries pointed out that the treaties which gave way to the CAN cannot be repealed as Chavez did, and there were numerous declarations in Venezuela regarding the negative effects for the industry, trade and employment. Faced all this criticism, Chavez said that he was willing to reconsider such measure if Colombia and Peru suspended the free trade agreements entered into with the U.S. Uribe answered that he would not neither freeze Colombia’s agreement nor be open to “little parochial ideological disputes”. Chavez retorted that Colombia is sovereign to trade with whoever it wants: “I just say that we are leaving because the CAN is rotten, that’s all…”

Venezuelan political leaders declared that the withdrawal from the CAN is one more piece in the inflammatory, bumper-car-like foreign policy defined by Chavez, of confronting the U.S. without taking into account the consequences for the region and its countries. Some think that Chavez has placed a time bomb in the European Union-Latin-America summit to be held in Vienna, from which a free trade agreement was expected between the Andean countries and Europe. Chavez’s oil diplomacy has been incorporated into the electoral agenda. Julio Borges, Primero Justicia’s candidate, declared that Chavez is the most serious problem that Venezuela has faced in its modern history, but also a serious problem for Latin-America and that Venezuelans are the ones who must find a solution defeating Chavez in the elections called for the next December 3^rd.

Is Chavez afraid of being measured in elections?

Given the appointment of the CNE (Spanish acronym for National Electoral Council), Teodoro Petkoff stated that Chavez may end up as the sole candidate, transforming the general elections into a plebiscite. Petkoff, a prominent figure in the democratic left-wing, has confronted the predominant abstention trend in the opposition and has postulated his name for a unified candidacy. The Observation Missions present the last year, considered the lack of transparency and partiality of the arbitrator as a decisive factor of the massive absence of electors. The recommended appointing a trustworthy CNE for all the electors. The National Assembly staged a charade which generated certain expectations, but the regime’s essence prevailed: appearance of legality and an iron control over institutions. The Assembly fulfilled step by step the formalities provided by the Constitution, and finally produced an Electoral Council with the same profile of the previous one. Speakers of the opposition and the civil society denounced the violation of the Constitutional provision regarding the electoral subject: “The National Electoral Council shall consist of five members having no ties to organizations for political purposes”. The new CNE consist of four admitted supporters of Chavez and an independent. In Venezuela Hoy we have examined the double message of the regime: to stimulate abstention and provide the conditions for participation little by little.

Petkoff, Borges, the Zulia State’s Governor Manuel Rosales and other personalities putting forward their names for a candidacy of union, agree in that the new council, to legitimize itself, would have to listen to the recommendations of the European Union and the OAE regarding conditions that return confidence in the electoral system. During the next days, It is expected that the list of demands to the CNE be completed, which will presumably include the depuration of the Electoral Registry, the elimination of the “capta-huellas” (fingerprint registration machines) and electronic voting ledgers, the verification of papers issued by the machines, the limitation of the massive publicity of the governmental candidate, and the presence of international observers. Venezuelan presidential elections will finish the 2005-2006 Latin-American electoral agenda, where some of the election have been quite hard-fought, and votes have been counted one by one, before international observation missions and press. Will Venezuela be the exception?

The formation of the CNE suggests that Chavez is not sure of winning comfortably in transparent elections. Opinion polls point out that the historical structure remains the same: one third with Chavez, one third against him and one third neutral, oscillating between Chavez and the opposition. This last sector is susceptible to the argument that the major problems have worsened during Chavez’s administration, and it could support a unified candidacy which proposes a convincing project for change. Conditions seem to be given to a unified candidacy. At least, that is the public commitment of those who have put forward their names. Such eventual candidate has to face Chavez and overcome the abstention encouraged by the appointment of the CNE. Our analysts think that the presidential election keeps being an opportunity to activate the democratic sectors and mobilize the country around the flag of fair elections.