July 14th., 2006

MERCOSUR ARMED FORCES

ABSTRACT:

• With the Presidents of Paraguay, Argentina and Bolivia, Chavez foretold that MERCOSUR will have a common defense organization.

•  Latin American Parliament calls for a Seminar about the military as an element of integration.

•  Heinz Dieterich, a Mexican German who is considered the ideological mentor of the Lieutenant Colonel, will expose his theories about the need for an armed arm of MERCOSUR.

•  The “oil diplomacy” conquered the support of the Latin American Parliament, as well as of Uruguay.

•  On July 5, the soldiers paraded exhibiting the new AK assault rifles and the Caracas sky was cut through the powerful air force available to Chavez, including the Russian Sukhoi.

•  Construction of arms manufacturers, Russian fighter planes, artillery helicopters, tanks, military transportation planes, rapid launches, Tucanos, submarines constitute the arms deal acquired.

• The system is designed for a conventional war.  Against who?

•  Pre totalitarian signs and ideology of thought are starting to show upon the militaristic, authoritarian and autocratic scenario.

• The Catholic Church speaks up.

•  The Episcopal Conference denounces intolerance to criticism, persecution and discrimination for ideological reasons, political prisoners, acts against the autonomy of the universities and liberty of expression.

• It states that in the electoral year, uncertainty, fear and distrust define the collective state of mind.  That it is necessary to rescue the trust in the vote and the achievement of an electoral process politically and ethically irreproachable.

•  Keller & Associates, in its last study, found that once again, the country is divided in equal parts, between pro Chavez and those against him, in a scenario that had disappeared since the Recall.

MERCOSUR ARMED FORCES

Invitations from the Latin American Parliament are being distributed for a Seminar regarding Regional Security, Integration and Armed Forces, to be celebrated in the Polytechnic University of the Military next coming week.  According to the program, the granting of academic category to the integration of the South Armed Forces will be proposed.  It is an idea on which Chavez insists, that obtained ample broadcasting when he reiterated it last July 5, in the imposing military parade effected to commemorate the anniversary of the Independence.  By his side were the Presidents of Bolivia, Paraguay and Argentina, who joined in the applause of the Generals that occupied spaces close to the Presidential Tribune, when Chavez foretold that MERCOSUR will count with common defense organization, wherein we will fusion the armed forces of our countries with our own strategy.  Chavez stated as a praising sign of his proposal, the participation of Argentinean military in the parade.  In the Seminar, the issue of the South Atlantic Treaty Organization (OTAS in Spanish), will be presented by Admiral Cabrera, who is a member of the highest Presidential military hierarchy.  General Quintero, Commander of the Reserves, will talk about the Venezuelan experience regarding the paramilitary forces being organized.  General Lopez, Inspector General, second in command in the Ministry of Defense, will talk about the thesis regarding the military as an element of regional integration.

His theories about new threats from the Empire and the need for a regional power block will be the contribution to the OTAS Project of Heinz Dieterich, a Mexican-German teacher who is considered as the ideological mentor of the revolution.  He is one of the main collaborators of the electronic magazine Rebelión, wherein he tries to conciliate Marxism-Leninism with the XXI Century Socialism preached by Chavez.  He was present in the July 5 parade, and upon praises towards him, he affirmed that the exhibition of tanks, rifles, combat planes, regular troops, militia and synchronized popular masses, correspond to the war scenarios offered by the Revolution.  In the program enclosed by the Latin American Parliament to the Invitation, the participation of Ecuadorian General René Vargas is announced.  Uruguay’s Ambassador, Geronimo Cardozo is in charge of the issue of the National Armed Forces and the Latin American Integration.  Besides the military parade, another significant act of July 5 had Parliament as its scenery, totally integrated by pro Government Deputies, wherein President Kirchner, in order speech, acknowledged that Venezuela enjoys a total democracy, a necessary condition for its inclusion in MERCOSUR.  The Argentinean President’s sentence was not a surprise, since he has never hidden his identification with Chavez.  What is surprising is that the “oil diplomacy” has conquered the support of the Latin American Parliament and of a country with such a civil tradition as that of Uruguay, in the polemic issue of military integration, as an armed arm of MERCOSUR.

 MILITARY, ARMS AND SOLE THOUGHT

Every day, there are many and more ostentatious militarization and arms race manifestations. On July 5, thousands of soldiers, parading before Chavez, who was made accompanied by General Mijail Timofievich Kalashnikov, creator of the assault rifle AK, exhibited the first shipment of 100,000 rifles acquired from Russia. The grazing flight of a Russian plane opened the parade.  It was the presentation of the 24 Sukhoi 30 bought by Chavez, who made proud comments to Kirchner, Evo Morales and Nicanor Duarte about the equipment that cut through the Caracas sky; the Skytruck fleet, Broncos, Super King  200, Hercules, Mirage, F16 and a 707 Boeing to supply fuel in the air to the Russian planes.

Pursuant to the information available, the negotiation of the Russian assault rifles include the installation of two manufacturers of these arms and its ammunitions, which will also be available for production, some 50,000 a year.  With Russia, it has also been agreed to buy artillery helicopters, bullet proof cars with light canons and Antonov planes for military transportation.  The buy from Spain includes planes for the Air Force and rapid launches for the Naval Force.  With Brazil, there are deals to acquire Tucanos and the government is requesting quotes for submarines.  Chavez promised that with the next shipment of Russian rifles, he would arm 15,000 youngsters from the Francisco de Miranda Front, formed in Cuba, in accordance with the model of the social fighters School that works in Havana.  In a meeting at the Poliedro, on June 29, he stated that to date, there are another 5,000 in the Island, training physically, ideologically and militarily, and that he would send another 5,000 when the others come back.  The Regime repeats that it buys weapons for a defensive war against the danger of an invasion effected or propitiated by the United States.  Notwithstanding, the experts coincide in that all the system is designed for a conventional war.  Against who?

The leftist pre candidate Teodoro Petkoff, declared that pre totalitarian signs are starting to show upon the militaristic, authoritarian and autocratic scenario.  Nationalization is expanding, covering sports, culture, science, non government organizations, particularly those dedicated to the defense of human rights.  The autonomy of the universities, television and radio chains are in the objective of the political control cannons, and the Armed Forces is a politicized institution, at the service of Chavez and his party.  Petkoff affirms that the announcement from Minister Istúriz of modeling the teachers and students, since they are small children, in the ideology of the revolution, would lead to create submissive, non critical and obedient citizens to the political designations of the government.

Similar statements were made by the Episcopal Conference Assembly:  Venezuela witnesses with astonishment and moral rejection, the promotion of a war climate and the militarization of society, amongst other things, by the creation of civil militias.  The Catholic hierarchs criticized the training of use of arms in the young and adolescent, and exhorted the diminishing of the arms expense.  The family, education and society issue deserved a special chapter.  They signal the danger of consecrating the state-party monopoly of the education, as longed in a Bill project, and they reject politics in education to turn teachers into agents of this doctrine, as well as the exclusion of religious education to children in public schools. 

THE ELECTORAL SCENARIO

The document from the Episcopal Conference considers as indispensable that the government precise its proposal of the XXI Century Socialism.  It signals facts that may allow a deduction of trying to impose a sole thought:  questioning of those who denounce scarce attention to the most urgent problems, intolerance to criticism, persecution and discrimination on account of ideological reasons, political prisoners and criminal accusations without any grounds, accusing the opposition of crimes such as treason, accusations against the autonomy of the universities and freedom of expression.  For the Church, the International Cooperation Bill will affect the liberty and activities of NGO´s and constitutes a threat to pluralism and democratic diversity.

We are in an electoral year, as stated by the document.  The uncertainty, fear and distrust define the collective state of mind.  What will happen in the country?  This is the question that generates anguish and paralysis.  It is necessary to rescue the trust in voting, as a democratic mechanism to peacefully solve conflicts of those who think otherwise. 

There is an exhortation to the CNE so that the electoral process be politically and ethically irreproachable, guaranteeing that the vote may be exercised without fear of repression and with the assurance that the decision of the majority will be respected.

The message from the Church was able to collect what constitutes the essence of the Venezuelan articulation:  that the confrontation and fracture of the society give way to a path of recuperation of the national concord.  Is this possible?  Objectively, the main political actor, Chavez, gives no sign of a disposition to fair play in the democratic game.  He gives the impression that he considers the regime structurally consolidated and grants priority to the affirmation of his leadership in the world scenario.  From July 19 through August 2 he will travel to Brazil, Argentina, Byelorussia, Russia, Qatar, Iran and Vietnam.  He does not include the visit to North Korea, which official spokespersons had justified, and which does not mean that it is excluded, in absolute terms, given to the frequent change of his schedule.  Chavez seems more interested in the Security Council than the Presidential elections in December.  Reasonably, since at this point in time, the opposition keeps debating about the method for selecting a candidate and the CNE keeps stubborn to the conditions that would bring transparency and credibility to the electoral act.

The majority of the polls favor Chavez, but according to the last survey from Alfredo Keller, a 72% wants the appearance of leaders that counter weight the President’s figure.  According to Keller, his investigations differ from other surveys that divide Chavez followers into a third, and who resent it, and the so called NOR NOR (nor with Chavez, nor against him).  Keller, in his last study, found that 50% is declared pro Chavez and 50% is declared against Chavez, a polarization that disappeared since the Revocation Recall, and that now appears once again as scenery of an electoral battle of unpredictable outcome, if there is credibility in the arbiter and unitary candidacy.