August 15th., 2006

THE MIRACLES OF OIL

ABSTRACT:

• Oil was able to achieve a double miracle:  the appearance of Raul Castro and the TV images of Fidel in his sick bed.

• The affiliate love of Chavez for Castro was patent.

• Chavez qualified Israel as a genocide state.

• While in Havana, several political prisoners were able to escape from a “high security” prison, amongst them, Carlos Ortega, the union leader.

• María Consuelo Araujo at Miraflores.

• The new Chancellor is a union man and highlights in the strongest line of the revolution.

• He wants the independence for the Netherlands Antilles.

• Qualified as a catastrophe:  Chavez eventual re election.

• “We are in the waiting room of a totalitarian regime”.

• Not satisfied the minimal conditions recommended by the international observers to guarantee trust worthy elections.

• Manuel Rosales, Governor of the Zulia State, invested as the color person of the opposition, responds to the basic profile of the ideal candidate against Chavez.

• He has defeated the candidates nominated by Chavez twice, and he is renowned as a successful public manager and skilled politician.

• The first opinion polls signal that he has the capacity to concentrate the opponent vote.

• Chavez doubts.

THE MIRACLES OF OIL

Chavez oil allowed the world the first true information regarding Fidel.  The Cuban television offered, for the first time, images of the dictator on his sick bed.  He greeted his homologous from Venezuela, who gave him proof of affiliate affection.  The Cuban TV was entertained in the visual testimony of the father, old and sick, touched by the arrival of the absent son, who embraced his hands lovingly, caressed his face and spoke about his worry when he received the news while in Vietnam.  I wanted to come to Havana to be with you, but Carlos (in reference to Carlos Valenciaga, Castro’s´ personal secretary) told me that the recovery was positive and from Hanoi I ordered to broadcast such news. The visitor did not lie. Pursuant to a communication issued in Caracas on August 1, the Cuban authorities informed the Chancellery that Castro was doing better.  International media reported it as prime news.  In Hello President, he ratified the withdrawal of the diplomatic representation from Israel, a genocide state, and spoke a lot about Fidel.  He phoned Evo Morales to transmit his regards from Castro.  He expressed that next Sunday program would be very special, since it would be dedicated to the Island’s mandatory.  There was no Hello President, but the day was dedicated to Fidel.  The Cuban media informed that the meeting with Castro, on Sunday August 13, was prolonged for three hours.  For Gramma “it was an unforgettable afternoon, shared between blood and cause brothers”.

His arrival to Havana produced the first public presentation of Raul Castro, after the announcement, two weeks earlier, of his assuming of the Presidency.  Escorted by the highest ranking Cuban officials, Raul Castro was captured by the TV cameras upon the typical military salute, pressing boot heels before the superior in command, and giving the military hand salute before offering an embrace.  The first public appearance of the Castro brothers also took place.  The government broadcasted a picture of Chavez and Raul, on the side of the bed wherein Fidel laid.  He holds a picture of Siqueiros, which Chavez received in retribution of the gifts he offered to the sick one.  All the Cuban media reminded that the current battle is that for the life of the Comandante and for the energetic supply of the Island.

From Havana, Chavez traveled to Montego Bay to expand the oil supply to Jamaica and ensure the vote of the new governor, Simpson Miller, in the Security Council election.  From Caracas, he was informed of the escape of political prisoners form a military “high security” prison.  Amongst others, Carlos Ortega, a well known union leader.  Even though the OIT (International Labor Organization) declared that it was legal for the President of the Workers Confederation (at that time), to call for a general strike, he was awarded a 15 year prison sentence.  The Government reiterated that in Venezuela there were no political prisoners, but politicians in prison, and affirmed that the escape was a conspiracy with electoral purposes.  In essence, it constituted a slap in the face for the regime and new evidence of their evident internal problems.  Chavez returned to receive the new Colombian Foreign Minister, Maria Consuelo Araujo, whose first activity is to meet with Nicolas Maduro, her homologous.  Araujo, young and of gaudy beauty, stated that she longed to dance “vallenato” with Chavez, and was able to do so, as per Chavez own affirmation.

OIL TOTALITARISM AND DOUBTFUL ELECTIONS

The unexpected appointment of Nicolas Maduro as Chancellor is another sign in Chavez international policy:  it will be carried on without intermediaries nor advisory.  The new Foreign Minister is a union follower, dedicated to political functions during these seven years.  He is highlighted in the strongest line of the revolution and has the mission of not interpreting what Chavez affirms without the support of the former Chancellors:  The words of the President must be understood within its context.  Of Curacao origin, he has the obsession of bringing independence to the Netherlands Antilles and promoting a government committed to the revolution, which will not allow such Antilles to be used by the marines to invade Venezuela.  The references about the new officer have been supplied by himself during past months:  he visits Iran to express support for the nuclear project, Syria to congratulate Hezbollah for the heroic resistance upon the genocide war of Israel against Lebanon, promoter of the legislative agreement that denounced Israel for the use of biological and chemical weapons, precursor of North Korea’s right for a nuclear program, subject of frequent appraisals from the Colombian guerrilla and almost always, present in acts of support for the Chavez candidates in Latin American elections of the past year.  Important media warn in editorials and opinion pages, that the appointment of Maduro, who accompanied Chavez at the Sunday meeting with Castro and the Cuban officials, calls for a serious consideration by regional governments.  They recommend the European Union to hurry the presence of an Observation Mission in the December 3 election.

Teodoro Petkoff, left wing leader, has demanded same within the newspaper he directs.  He offered as a pre candidate to pressure a unity formula.  Upon his withdrawal, he qualified Chavez´ re election as a catastrophe, alleging that the country is going from an imperfect democracy to a government that advances with the objective of controlling all social life.  There is the existence of a will to subdue everyone to the States surveillance, to even control thought, with the official culture project, converting education in an instrument of ideology. 

The major danger is the laws being dictated and the courts that apply them to frighten society and restrict civil rights.  We are in the waiting room of totalitarian regime and the December elections demand a unitary candidacy and the continuance of a battle for conditions which clear any fraud from the event.  It was the essence of the message.

The minimal conditions are those detailed by the international observers when they attended the Parliamentary elections on December of 2005.  They explained abstention, more than 80%, by the general distrust in the arbiter’s impartiality and the suspicion of fraud.  The first recommendation was a CNE, that upon its independence, it would transmit trust.  The others insisted in the depuration of the Electoral Registry, plagued with irregularities, and independent audit of the automatic system, verification of the paper ballots, equity in the use of financial and media resources during the campaign.  Chavez agreed to suspend Hello President, except for “special circumstances”.  He keeps using the radio electric means to broadcast his speeches and he does transmit “in chain” on a daily basis, and in prime time, propaganda for his presidential performance.  CONATEL warns that it will sanction the private means that pretense to offer electoral publicity disguised as political information.  A “black” humor program broadcasted daily by the government’s television station, questions why the opposition rejects the finger print electoral machines, and the comedian, with sardonic laughter, responds:  because such machines monitor who is voting and for whom he is voting for.  Note taken opponents?  Note taken, Bolivarian comrades? 

THE UNITARY CANDIDATE

Defeating Chavez in the elections is a mission impossible, was stated by many.  Difficult, but not impossible, replied others.  These were echoes from the announcement that Manuel Rosales will be the unitary candidate of the opposition.  Obviously, the news were well taken by those that have been demanding a unitary candidate.  The process to reach a consensus was long and hard, but with a happy ending:  an agreement between those that had offered as color bearer, backed by an opinion investigation that revealed Rosales as the best positioned pre candidate.  Rosales is close to the basic profile of the ideal candidate against Chavez, designed by experts in political marketing.

Rosales is the Governor of Zulia State, the most populated state and the one with the greatest economic potential, for its rich oil deposits and for being the first one in land and cattle activities.  The candidate is currently in the exercise of his second mandate, being the one that has defeated, twice, the candidates appointed by Chavez.  He arrived at the Governor’s Office after having accomplished a successful performance as the Mayor of Maracaibo.  While very young, he was elected to the Municipal Council of a town located south of the Lake, wherein he worked as a teacher and later on the neighbors elected him for the state legislature, a scenario that allowed him to demonstrate his political skill.  He is acknowledged for a good performance of his public work.  He comes from a humble background and archetype of the ability to move up, on account of his own effort, in Venezuela’s characteristic social mobility.  Contemporary with Chavez, he reflects a generation of political relay in the civil sectors.

Rosales´ proposals are socially accentuated, within a market economy system.  Firm on his critics to the regime, his message is, not withstanding, a conciliatory one, insisting on peaceful coexistence and the predominance of the rule of law.  Opinion polls carried on by certain means of communication grant him a 30% preference, which means the capacity of concentrating the sympathy of opponents willing to vote.  Rosales finds his first wall on the thick sector of abstentionists.  His real contender is the opulent Venezuela oil state, at the service of Chavez, without brakes or control. 

But Rosales´ biggest difficulty is that four of the five members of the National Electoral Council, arbiter of the battle, show off their “country or death” commitment with the revolution.  They did not hide it on Saturday, August 12, when Chavez presented himself before the entity to register his nomination.  I am the candidate of the revolution, he proclaimed before the multitude of red shirts that awaited him at the exit of the CNE.  Hours before, the entity announced the approval of the finger print electoral machines.  Tascon´s list relives in the collective memory, which mad public the names of those who had voted in order to recall Chavez, segregating them of the full exercise of civil rights.  With all, in the proclamation act of his candidacy, Chavez affirmed:  It will cost us a lot to obtain the 10 million votes.