September 15th., 2006

 The Summit Of The Non Aligned

ABSTRACT:

• Chávez suggests that the attack against the Twin Towers was planned by the US government to justify aggressions against Afghanistan, Irak´s invasion and alleged threats against Venezuela.

•  Chávez assures counting with the majority for representation in the Security Council.  “The USA has said no, we say yes, and we are going to win”.

•  According to Chávez, the Pentagon included Venezuela amongst enemy countries.

• Opinions from General Craddock, Head of the South Commando.

•  “Chávez has granted Fidelism immunity against any attempt from the US to influence on what is to happen in Cuba”.  (Larry Birns)

•  Chávez warned that Venezuela will grant full support to Iran if invaded by the US.  He reiterated an invitation to the Iranian President.

•  Venezuela Oil in exchange of good image in London.

•  Chávez does not recognize Felipe Calderón as elect President of Mexico.

•  European Union observation missions questioned.

• Oil dollars for Ortega in Nicaragua and Correa in Ecuador.

•  Chávez threatens with indefinite permanency in power and a sole party.

•  The increasing support for Rosales´ candidacy fills the lack of leadership in the opposition and opens the path for a change in the course of the Republic.

•  Rosales´ candidacy profiles as a civic project of agreement with coherent strategy and message.

•  If the increase of Rosales continues, will there be elections in December 3?

•  And the international democratic community?

 The Summit Of The Non Aligned

 Chávez´ conflictive diplomacy towards Washington acquires noisy levels.  The September 11^th terrorist attack anniversary was referenced by Chancellor Maduro to request an international independent investigation to unfold the truth.  According to him, “lies were manufactured that served international politics of the terrorist clan that governs the USA”.  The day of the decoration, pro Chávez followers, with their red uniforms, marched through the streets of Caracas, carrying posters supporting Maduro´s petition.  The following day, Chávez, in a public event, suggested that the attack against the Twin Towers had been planned by the US government:  “the hypothesis that it was the same North American Imperialistic power that planned and carried on this terrorist act to justify aggressions against Afghanistan, the invasion of Irak and the threat towards us is running strong”.  In a night talk show he revealed Washington´s denial of issuing visas to the Head of the Military House and the security personnel that had to accompany the former to the trip to New York to intervene upon the General Assembly of the UN.  He affirmed that nothing could stop him from preventing his appearance to “sing to the yankis the truth on behalf of the dignified peoples of the earth”.  Washington clarified that in the more than 200 committee of companions that requested the visas, some are not Venezuelan.

He traveled to Havana in order to seek support in the Non Aligned Summit.  According to his judgment, this is  a very important scenario in the battle against the Empire.  “Venezuela aspires to be a member in the Security Council.  The United States has said “no”, we say “yes”, and we are going to win, this is a world battle we are fighting”, he assured euphoric. In Havana, according to the news reporter sent by Radio Nacional de Venezuela, the journalists from different international agencies considered that Chávez is the point of attention of the Summit.  At the airport he broke protocol and shouted “I am coming your way”, to the journalists that stood away from the Tribune, from which they could only take pictures, and he got closer to them to give his first declarations.  He announced that we would meet with Fidel to examine the final declaration project, in which “the support of the Non Aligned is granted to President Hugo Chávez” is manifested, “as well as the concern for the increase of actions from the US against Venezuela”:  The project proposes that the Summit “acknowledge the impartiality and the reliability of the Venezuelan electoral power to guarantee transparent elections”.  It is the proposed reading of Chávez himself.  Will this be the final text?

From Havana, Chávez proclaimed having the majority to enter the Security Council.  He asked the Non Aligned to reject declarations from the South Commando, General Bantz J. Craddock, who affirmed that Islamic terrorists are refugees in Venezuela and that the Russian weapons recently acquired will end up in the hands of the Colombian drug guerrilla.  According to Chávez, the Pentagon included Venezuela between enemy countries.

General Craddock, in the Conference of the Americas, which recently met in Miami, upon referring to Venezuela, stated the following:  “We are now in a situation wherein the military relations are tense”.

The Summit produced abundant rhetoric and surely the most important issue, not included in the formal agenda, was the candidacy to substitute Koffi Annan in the UN General Secretariat, for which Chávez may not offer votes.  But he was able to guarantee the oil needed by the Cuban regime to return to the orthodox model of an economy absolutely dominated by the State, which Fidel, upon disgust, agreed to flexibly when the Soviet aid ended, and that now, supplied by Venezuela, is trying to return to its origins. Larry Birns, Director of the Consejo de Estudios Hemisféricos (Hemispheric Studies Council), with a seat in Washington, considers that Chávez has granted Fidelism immunity against any attempt from the US to influence in what is going to happen in Cuba.

WITH OIL AND LOQUACIOUS

Chávez´ interference in the internal affairs of other countries borders in extravagance.  The Guardian, of London, (September 14, 2006), comments on the shipment of one million barrels of oil to the London Mayor’s Office, run by Ken Livingston, who, this past May received the Lieutenant Colonel as guest of honor.  In exchange, the Mayor’s Office committed to promote a good image of Venezuela amongst the London population.  In a similar situation, oil donations for Alaskan Indian tribes or the delivery of subsidized fuel for poor sectors of New York and Boston.

The issue regarding the Mexican elections produced stupor: Chávez does not acknowledge the legitimacy of Felipe Calderón, as elected President.  His government is very worried by the denounces and evidence of irregularities in the electoral process.  “We are evaluating, Venezuela has not yet recognized the new government”.  Some analysts call to attention his vituperate comments against the European Union observers, who confirmed the normality of the Mexican elections.  According to Chávez, it is disrespectful that the European Union praises the Mexican elections and denounces irregularities in the Venezuelan ones.  He seems to anticipate to possible claims from the European observation mission in the Presidential elections of December.  The report, sanctioned by Chávez, attested that in Venezuela, there is no trust, nor  in the impartiality of the arbiter, nor in the transparency of the system and formulated recommendations that to date, have lacked an audience.

We should not judge him for what he says, but for what he does.  It is dangerous to have him as an enemy.  It seems to define the treatment of governments to Chávez.  The Summit of the Non Aligned will have to be analyzed as an objective evaluation of the oil diplomacy and its achievements.

The coming elections are in Nicaragua and Ecuador, wherein Chávez is playing hard for the candidacies of Daniel Ortega and Rafael Correa, as he did in Bolivia with Evo Morales.  The expansion of the Bolivarian Revolution may only be stopped by Venezuelans and it is one the two major questions to be decided next December 3.

NEW POLITICAL SCENERIO

The other is the dilemma between a military, autocratic, pre totalitarian regime, or the opening towards a renewed democratic system.  Chávez insists in ruling indefinitely, either by means of Constitutional reform, or a Referendum.  “The people may not be taken away the right to re election, if it were its wish, for three, four, five or six times, whoever it may be, to drive the ship of the Republic”.  These have been, to date, the most explicit terms, since he now does not detail a specific year (2021, 2030) to abandon power.  He added, in the last Aló Presidente, the creation of a “sole party to strengthen the Revolution”.

Common Venezuelans are not surprised by the announcements.  Until August last, the political opinion was clearly defined in two blocks:  government parties, with the slogan of converting the December 3 elections in a plebiscite (10 million votes for Chávez) and his adversaries, in a pathetic debate regarding whether it was worth participating in the elections.  The Presidential election, according to some, was simply an instrument to re activate the opposition, even without the existence of conditions that guaranteed the validity of the vote.  For others, abstaining was the best way to not legitimate the re election.  What is novel is that the December election starts to be seen not as an instrument but as a means to measure the forces of power.  The dynamics of growing social displeasure at the regime foresees the candidacy of Manuel Rosales as an opportunity for a change in the course of the Republic.

With surprising swiftness, the country is polarized between Chávez and Rosales.  Chávez himself, in the quarter language he normally uses, exhorted his followers not to succumb to triumphal behavior upon favorable polls, and that the ones in charge of the battle must act as if tied.  The Rosales´ candidacy if profiling as a civic project of agreement, with a coherent message and strategy.  Upon the proposals of indefinite re election and a sole party, Rosales responded that such proposals challenge the structural bases of the modern country and constitute the gravest threat to the peaceful coexistence of the Venezuelan society.  He calls for a democratic alliance to confront the authoritarian frame and prevent its transformation into a totalitarian system.  He is achieving what seemed most difficult:  a consensus in that he (Rosales) fills the lack of leadership, which has been the most relevant need of the opposition in this prolonged seven years of Chávez.  The independent surveys have advanced, privately, that the vote intention increases for Rosales and decreases for Chávez.

If in fact this occurs, Venezuela Hoy asks the question, will there be elections in December 3?  Does the international democratic community have any interest in that the Venezuelans may express their political will in transparent elections?