September 28th., 2006

The Electoral Scenarios

ABSTRACT:

• The new messages from Chavez:  I am the only one who can govern this country.  The people will not allow to be snatched away from the social programs.  The Armed Forces is committed to the Revolution and trained for the asymmetric war against the North American invasion.

•  These messages are construed as an acknowledgement of the strength obtained by Rosales´ candidacy.

•  Chavez threatens with lack of governance if he does not win.

•  Surveys show Chavez as vulnerable.

•  Daily demonstrations from pro government followers demanding compliance of promises.

•  The population claims for protection against the wave of crime.

•  It is necessary for the observation missions to exert pressure in order for the compliance of their recommendations.

•  The insults from Chavez against Bush rebounded immediately in the US and in the Middle East.

•  Chavez rhetoric and histrionics' in New York achieved more media effect than the Non Aligned Summit and displaced the curiosity for the health of Fidel Castro.

•  The Minister of Energy manifested that Venezuela counts with the support of Iran, China and Russia, for the exploitation of the Orinoco’s oil basin.

•  Political scientists and analysts take Chavez pretensions of acceding to the Security Council seriously.

•  The government of Lukashenko corresponds “with the social model that we are starting to create”.

•  Chavez proposes an indefinite re election and a sole party.

•  These affairs make part of the necessary reflection before the electoral event.

 The Electoral Scenarios

I am the only one who can govern the country, Chavez affirmed on Sunday, September 24.  It is the new slogan of his electoral campaign.  The information and appalling government publicity highlight the following: that the people are not willing to allow the snatching away of social programs, the commitment of the Armed Forces with the Revolution and the potential of the military reserve, trained for the asymmetric war against the expected invasion of North American troops, and as such “to water with blood our nation’s soil defending the revolution and its leader”.  The Commander of the Military Reserve and National Mobilization recently declared:  “The enemy is not only outside the borders, it is inside, with different faces”.  Investigative journalism has unfolded the acquisition by the government party of a giant  web of means of communication, the existence of the so called Bolivarian Armed Forces, following the FARC model, the presence of a Cuban military structure within national territory, the indications of a connection between pro Chavez leaders and delinquent bands to politically harass within the misery belts. (slums)  The President sworn in an apparent militia, called Francisco de Miranda Front, whose components, according to Chavez, are being trained in Cuba and who he warned must obtain expertise in the handling of the rifles bought in Russia.

The new message has been construed by analysts as an acknowledgement that Chavez values the strength obtained by the unitary candidacy of Manuel Rosales. Recently he said:  “all indicates that we are going to win, but I repeat Yogui Berra´s phrase:  the game is not won until the last out is made.   We cannot be careless.  The campaign is getting hot”.  His new message threatens with a lack of governance if he were to loose the elections.  It is a threat that Rosales seems not to reject.   One of his offers with greatest motivation is to have the electoral results respected. In colloquial language of his native region, he affirms:  “I will win and I will collect”.  It is a triple commitment:  defeating Chavez, assuming the Presidency and governing.

Upon two months of the elections, there is a war survey.  Some show Chavez as vulnerable, even when he maintains a high percentage of intention to vote.  In focus group, his strong point shows that such two thirds of the voters disqualify the public performance in sensible areas such as insecurity, unemployment, corruption, but they exonerate the head of the government.  “Chavez does not know, he is unaware, he wants to help the people, but his team is full of incompetents”.  Regarding the oil geo policy, sympathizers, adversaries and neutrals coincide in that the country’s resources must be directed to solving internal problems and not the foreign ones. 

Rosales and the leaders that accompany him have to hit hard the messianic shield that Chavez has achieved in creating.  To his favor is the real fact that during these long seven years poverty has increased, more than half of the active population hardly survives in the informal sector, and there are daily demonstrations of choleric “red shirts” asking for their promises of housing to be met, public services, protection against the criminal wave and attention to other more felt needs of the population.  Likewise,  the middle class is not in tune with the revolutionary speech.  If the political scenario were similar to that of other Latin American republics which have elected or in going to elect governors, there is no doubt that Rosales has evident possibilities of obtaining the necessary votes to achieve his triumph.  But the Venezuelan case, upon representing different characteristics, make it necessary that the observation missions of the European Union and of the OAS exert the necessary pressure for the compliance of their recommendations.  The observation mission took due note that the President has absolute control of all public institutions, including the National Electoral Council and the Supreme Court.  Now they could attest that the re election project is handled as a state issue, and that all instances of power comply with any role assigned to them.  They can see that the re election counts with the abundant finances of the nation, fueled by oil, and that there is no administrative or parliamentary control over the public expense. 

Parliament comprised solely of government followers gives permanent testimony of its submission to the orders of Miraflores.  The Comptroller as well as the District Attorney, declares, every time possible, of their commitment with the “process”.  These are facts that evidence the specific nature of the Venezuelan Case, and have to call to the attention of the democratic international community.

THE DANGERS OF WORLD PROTAGONISM

When Chavez took the United Nation’s General Assembly tribune, on Wednesday, September 20, he was already a known character by political elite and international analysts.  After his speech, he became a news man for the means of communication of the five continents.  The insults against Bush were taken care of by the US means, written and audiovisual means, big, medium and small, from one coast to the other, as in the rest of the continent and in Europe.  They coincided that the aggressiveness and the grave offenses, of a personal character against the North American President had replaced Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadineyad, as Washington’s number one enemy.  A valid perception, since Chavez speech immediately rebounded in the Middle East.  On Thursday, September 21, the Shii militia leader of the Hezbolá, Hassan Nasralá, in an event in Beirut, testified his gratitude:  “only a great man like Chavez was able to say what he did say in the United Nation’s General Assembly”.  In Beirut’s suburbs, as reported by AFP, there were posters placed by Hezbolá, which read:  “Thank you Chavez”:

Chavez rhetoric and histrionism in New York achieved more media effect than the Non Aligned Summit and displaced the curiosity for the health of Fidel Castro.  The news agency revised the schedule met by the Lieutenant Colonel in the previous weeks.

The news reviews stated that Chavez and the Iranian President met in Caracas on September 17 and 18 and signed 29 cooperation agreements and 5 bilateral alliances.  The Venezuelan minister, Rafael Ramirez, informed that Venezuela seeks to certify that in the Orinoco basin, there exists the greatest oil reservoir in the world, for which we counts with the collaboration of Iran, China and Russia.  He added that the Iranian and Venezuelan state oil companies intend to build a refinery in Syria.  Chavez and Ahmadineyad inaugurated the operations of the first oil well perforated by an Iranian-Venezuelan mixed company, and signed an joint declaration expressing “common standing with respect to international relations”:

CLAIM OF TRANSPARENT ELECTIONS

Political scientists and analysts have taken Chavez more seriously, his interference in the world’s current complex situation and his will to accede to the Security Council.  They also pay attention to the identification of the Chavez regime.  Reference elements, if needed, have been provided, abundantly, by Chavez himself in the boreal summer.  Apart from the alliance with Cuba, in his visit to Byelorussia, he declared that the government of Alexander Lukashenko, identified as the last dictator of Europe, corresponds with “the social model that we are trying to create” and he spoke of forming a strategic alliance between the countries.  Shortly, a Byelorussian delegation was present at Caracas to sign cooperation agreements, highlighting energy and weapons.  In Damascus he met with Bashar Asaad, whose regime he admires, as he declared to the press.  Asaad is the President of Syria, “democratic, popular and socialist republic”, as proclaimed by its Constitution, and in reality, a model of a presidential government, authoritarian, supported by one sole party.  In Hanoi, he praised the communist regime of Vietnam as a model of the socialist revolution and signed an oil agreement.  Socialism of the XXI Century is Chavez proposal to the Venezuelans.  With one sole party and presidentialism without being subject to the principle of alterability.  It would be a strictly national issue, only because Chavez thinks that the Venezuelan oil opens paths to assume a role of leadership in the world scenario.

These intricate affairs make part of the necessary reflection before the electoral event established for the coming December 3.  Qualified sectors of society look very worried for the consequences that such international policy and deliriums of grandeur of Chavez´ world leadership may cause Venezuela.  In good measure, this is the explanation of the spectacular development of Rosales´ candidacy.  Brought about upon an agreement in the political leadership, it has become a meeting point for the country that takes conscience of the danger represented by the re election.

Arturo Uslar Pietri, one of our greatest intellectuals, whose prolonged existence allowed him to live, or suffer, the first years of the regime, affirmed that Chavez is a product and a punishment of oil.  Power and oil have been connected in the last 100 years.  The unitary candidacy calls the civil sectors to the electoral battle for power, with the confidence that oil may be the instrument to guarantee the governance of a civil Presidency.