October 16th,2006

Change Of Image And Change Of Message

ABSTRACT:

•  Chavez does not walk the streets.  He uses a chariot as a means of transportation, protected by numerous bodyguards.

• “For love of the people I became President.  There is still much to be done.  I need more time”.

• Rosales repeats the scheme of the campaign which 8 years ago opened the doors of the Presidential Palace to Chavez and challenges him to do the same.

• Rosales is seriously disputing the Presidency.

• It is evident that the official media web is not convincing, since it is evident that Chavez´ advertising agencies send their guidelines to independent media.The militant opposition assumed Rosales´ flag.

•  The polarization occurred.  Is Chavez defeatable?  Besides the Arbiter, he has a strong and potential electorate.  He counts with abundant oil resources.

•  Notwithstanding, Chavez clientele is unpredictable.  It may gamble for Rosales if convinced that he will win and that he will collect.

• Opinion from the Rector of the Universidad Católica.

•  Chavez defeat at the Security Council of the UN.

• Agreement between Chavez and Evo Morales regarding military cooperation.

• Chavez fails at Ecuador.  Correa, contrary to forecasts, was defeated in the first round.

• Chavez pretends to convert Venezuela in military potency.

• In the Venezuelan election, more than the Presidency is at stake.

Change Of Image And Change Of Message

Chavez suspended the international agenda in request of votes for the Security Council and dedicated himself to request such votes in order to stay in power for the next 14 years.  He does not show the Constitution, as he did in Hello President, since according to the Constitution, if elected, he may only rule for another 6 years.  In 1998, when he won the presidency for a period of 5 years, he traveled the country, shaking hands, giving away hugs and promising to end poverty and corruption.  Now he does not walk the streets.  He uses a “chariot” as means of transportation, surrounded by numerous bodyguards.  At the front of the truck, there are graphic reporters and cameramen, previously checked with metal detectors.  The chariot is surrounded by a security ring, mostly comprised of athletic individuals, who upon speaking to maintain the people apart, one can hear the unmistakable Cuban accent. 

Motor bikes from the Military House open way to the chariot’s path.  In the appropriate moment, Chavez speaks up:  “I am here today for the love of all of you, for love of the Revolution.  All I have done I have done for love.  For love for the people I became President.  He have governed all these years for love.  There is still much to be done.  I need more time.  I need your vote.  Your vote for love”.  The former speech repeats the content of promotional commercial broadcasted by television and by half a page in the major newspapers, wherein besides the affectionate texts, there appears Chavez with a blue shirt, with a relaxed look, looking towards infinity.  He adds the pending issues to the above speech:  end with corruption and inefficacy, which have “gravely sickened the revolution”.

There is surprise upon the change of image and message.  Mostly by the “red shirts”, who now doubt whether they should still use them as a distinctive sign.  The humorists season their chronicles and caricatures with the “love” message.  The analysts question the reasons for such abrupt modifications in the final weeks of the campaign.  The explanations vary but it seems evident that Chavez perceives the noise of the streets.  Rosales is repeating the scheme of the campaign that 8 years ago opened the doors of the presidential palace to Chavez:  he walks the streets of the towns towards the hearts of the slums that used to be referred to the strengths of Chavez, carrying his message face to face, shaking hands, receiving hugs and defying that “other guy” to do the same.  He explains that he does not disrespects the President, who resigned to his name because in many occasions he stated that he would quit calling himself Hugo Chavez if he did not comply with his promises.  Independent television shows the ambience of sympathy with which the opposition candidate is welcomed and broadcasts the invitation:  “step down from your chariot and walk the slums, as I do”.  The electoral event with most impact was effected on Saturday, October 7.  Rosales called for a march that “over flew the main avenues of the center of Caracas”, as reported by international agencies.  The added:  “the biggest popular demonstration since the recall.  The electoral results may be a surprise”.  Surely, Rosales is seriously disputing the Presidency from Chavez.

ROSALES ADVANCES AND RISKS

 Rosales is defeating the abstention strategy that was imposed on December 4 and which dominated in the opposition until the unity candidacy was configured. The immense block that disagrees with Chavez is grouping around Rosales.  Superior to the one comprised by those loyal and those promised the paradise of the XXI Century Socialism?  The electoral struggle unfolds in the media scenario, wherein Chavez counts with numerous TV channels, and a vast chain of radio stations and hundreds of printed and information means, dedicated to promote his candidacy and disqualify that of Rosales.  It is evident that the official media web did not achieve convincing effects, since the advertising agencies that handle the re election campaign sends their guidelines to the independent TV channels and newspapers.  Some of these means, not withstanding threats and self censure as an effect of the Gag Bill, procure information balance, which is a point in favor of Rosales.  Another scenario is the war of surveys.  The only thing credible, to date, is that half the voters are declared as undecided.  Chavez spokesmen stopped talking about 10 Million votes and now are reduced to forecast a “smashing victory”.  Rosales followers affirm that the tendencies are promising and that in a brief period of time they will have the numbers on their side.  In the street scenario, Rosales appears very well, as revealed by various popular demonstrations in the interior of the country, similar to those of Caracas.  The correct reading is that the militant opposition has assumed Rosales flag.

The polarization effect has occurred.  In such scheme, is Chavez defeatable?  We are dealing with an atypical campaign.  Chavez, besides the electoral authorities, has a strong electorate, with a solidarity sense for its political project or simply captivated for the charismatic leadership.  He counts with a fan of doubtful opinion, which looks upon him with pleasure, but still in disagreement with a sole party, indefinite re election, Cuban model, militarized society and international confrontation.  He also has the potential electorate from the Missions.  According to financial analysts, the government expense in the last trimester surpasses the $5,000 Million, not including the direct financing from the State´s oil company.  Community Councils have been created in poor neighborhoods which receive cash allowances to be distributed amongst the ones requesting help or credits.  The regime has created thousands of popular cooperatives which enjoy priority to obtain contracts from public entities or receive financing for whatever project presented.  Since there is a lack of inspection or control entities, no payment guarantees exist, “the corruption that threatens as a cancer against the revolution”, as stated by Chavez, acquire metastasis characteristics.  This added to the excluding sectarianism:   in order to benefit from the oil check book, it is indispensable to identify oneself with the revolution.  It is such an unpredictable clientele as that of bureaucracy.  It may end up gambling to the winner.  Is the electoral lever able to catapult Rosales if convinced that he will win, he will collect and he will govern?  Is Chavez willing to deliver power by the electoral way?  Luis Ugalde, Rector of the University Catholic, made a call to vote, as a massive and militant manifestation of the democratic people, and answered the following question:  if what is absolute is the revolution, all else is relative, including the elections.  He did not rule out that such relativism inspires errors of immense grave seriousness, amongst others, a self coup or something similar.  It is also not thinkable that Rosales be barred politically.  The most radical recommend to be careful for a criminal attempt.  Venezuela’s is not one more election this year in Latin America.  More than the Presidential re election is at stake. 

CHAVEZ DEFEATS AND RISKS

 The errors in international policy start to invoice.  The defeat in the aspiration to the Security Council is an answer to his performance in the UN, in September last.  Until that date, many, driven by their rejection to Washington, offered support.  Others alleged debts of gratitude.  Even with New York’s show, Chavez kept on bragging victorious in the first round.  On Sunday, October 8, Chile’s El Mercurio published and unknown agreement between Chavez and Evo Morales, about military cooperation, signed on May 26, 2006.  In comprise military bases in the Bolivian borders, financed by Venezuela.  It is convened that Venezuelan troops may enter Bolivia for “crisis proceedings” and for “opportune national events”.  Simultaneously, the Ambassador at La Paz affirmed: “if asked for our blood or our lives, we will be here to defend the revolution”.  The reaction from the countries that felt threatened was overwhelming, with Chile as paradigm.  Bachelet, contrary to forecasts, announced her abstention.  Without announcing it, they denied it, at the time of the secret vote, a good number of those who appeared on Chavez list.

Another failure suffered by Chavez is that of Ecuador.  Contrary to the surveys, his candidate and admirer, Rafael Correa, was defeated in the first round, notwithstanding that the oil check book generously financed his campaign, as denounced by Noboa.  With Peru and Mexico, Chavez interference has created a severe diplomatic tension.  In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega and his Mayors receive oil sold under the normal prices, dedicating what remains to the campaign, as per government spokesmen.  It is evident that Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, to mention three South American countries, interested in Chavez´ good will, are determined to mark a distance from his extravagances.   The same is happening with the European Union.

 Colombia’s and Brazil’s press have highlighted reports of military advisory, accredited worldwide, according to which, Chavez proposes to convert Venezuela into a military potency, adding to the weapons already acquired, 150 supersonic planes, 10 to 15 missile launching submarines, war vessels, radars and laser guided bombs.  Vice-president Rangel is in Russia signing new agreements.  Nor Russia or China accept vetoes to Chavez arms race, but it seems clear that the international community is taking more seriously the oil geostrategy as an instrument to acquire protagonism in the complex current scenario.  

There is more at stake in the Venezuelan elections than just the Presidential elections.  Comparable just to those of Mexico, even thought he difference between Chavez and Rosales is greater than that of Felipe Calderon and Lopez Obrador.  This is a civil politician with radial ideas.  He will end up succumbing to democratic rules, above all, after the lesson received in his Tabasco domain.  Chavez, on the contrary, is a soldier that fancies of being a revolutionary.  With Ugalde´s words, revolutionary rules are relative.  They are accepted or they are not.