November 30th,  2006

SIGNS OF VIOLENCE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

ABSTRACT:

• Chavez says there is no room for another project other than the Bolivarian Revolution.

• The war of surveys ended without winners or losers.

• The street events called by the opposition have exceeded the ones called by the government.

• Chavez called his party men to concentrate in Miraflores to celebrate the “triumph”.

•  Rosales affirms that if he wins, he will collect democratically, “with the people in the streets”.

• The peaceful option depends on the reliability granted to the results announced by the CNE.

• Rosales achieved to turn the opposition in a powerful political movement, in only 4 months.

• Chavez suspended his international agenda and dedicated to the electoral confrontation.  He appeared 87 hours during November in the main state TV.

• Today, in a press conference he stated that the indefinite re election he will propose is democratic.

• “This campaign is the beginning of Chavez end.  A leadership has ended.   One that tries to sustain itself over fear, the buying of consciences and the thesis of the necessary gendarme”.  (Omar Barboza, spokesman for Rosales).

• The intellectual flag of pro Chavez followers appreciates little enthusiasm in the voters and points out that inefficiency, corruption and insecurity play a role against Chavez.  She expects a light victory of her candidate and expects him to give way to thought.

• Another intellectual, on the side of the opposition, states that the December 3 elections are the most relevant political mandate in the history of Venezuela’s democracy.

• Archbishop Perez Morales declares as inadmissible for Christians the indifference upon the proposal of the “XXI Century Socialism”, for it deals with a Caribbean version of the “real Socialism”.

SIGNS OF VIOLENCE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

The Latin American electoral calendar ends in Venezuela with numerous questions, amongst others, if the result will be peaceful or violent.  In the closing of the campaign, in Caracas, Chavez himself insisted in the characterization of his regime.  “ In Venezuela there is no room for any other project other than the Bolivarian Revolution... the results of December 3 are written down,…the transition era will end to give way to the Simon Bolivar Project… from 2007 to 2021 there are 14 years of battle to turn Venezuela into an example of the XXI Century Socialism”.

He added that his victory is dedicated upon the 50 years of the arrival of the Granma yacht to Cuba, as homage to Fidel Castro.  Hours later, Rosales, the opposition’s candidate, manifested that his contender does not hide his purpose to stand as a perpetual governor such as Fidel Castro, nor does he hide his will to reproduce in Venezuela the model imposed in Cuba.

It is hard to predict what will happen in the days to come, since the main actor is unpredictable, as affirmed by psychiatrists who have studied personality disorders which seem evident in Chavez.  The war of the surveys ended without winners or losers since the figures offered by the Government give the President an advantage of over 30 points, a difference that is not credible, since the street events called by the opposition have exceeded concurrence and enthusiasm as opposed to the ones called by the Government.  Rosales´ commando, regarding surveys, has been temperate, with a high dose of optimism.  The difference granted by Rosales´ triumph would be of 6 to 8 points, betting for a higher margin on account of an expected avalanche of “hidden votes” or “silent votes”.  The independent analysts coincide in that the “fear factor” influences the answers of those surveyed and that the electoral result will depend on the voters harassed by the government to dare, as requested by Rosales.

Chavez called his party men to concentrate at Miraflores on December 3 to “celebrate the triumph”.  Rosales affirms that if he wins the elections he will exercise all civic and democratic resources to acknowledge the national will, “with the people in the streets”.  As such, a scenario is created wherein Chavez does not even dream of loosing and Rosales manifests his decision to have the results respected, if favorable to him.  The common people pray in temples for a peaceful result and people are buying supplies in supermarkets in order to anticipate what may happen.  Several embassies advise their citizens, residents in Venezuela, to gather food, water and medicines to be prepared in case the elections lead to street unrest.  The peaceful option depends on the trust granted to the results provided by the National Electoral Council (CNE), in which 4 of its 5 members are pro Chavez; it also depends on respect for the results on the part of the Military, even if such result is not favorable to their Commander in Chief, and the same goes for Chavez, if the winner is Rosales.

ROSALES´ ACHIEVEMENT

Rosales´ deed, as stated by analysts, is having achieved, in 4 months, converting the opposition in a powerful political movement with unity in its control, a common strategy and a viable alternative project.  Chavez suspended his international agenda, he excused himself from attending events that offered him a tribune for the speech that has made him an alter ego of Fidel and has dedicated solely to the electoral confrontation with the man that seriously disputes his power.  He put the State’s machinery to work in order to achieve massive demonstrations, in which the attendance of public officials is mandatory as well as the attendance of the beneficiaries of the Missions.  The events are broadcasted by the government TV networks, chained to the most important one, Venezolana de Television, in which TV panels, as monitored by the CNE, Chavez appeared 87 hours during the month of November.  The government’s TV reproduce the President’s activity several times a day, hence, Chavez´ image appears at all hours.  The mass events from the government are characterized by red clothing and red headgear.  The Globovision channel has been warned that it will be penalized and eventually shut down for having captured in their recordings the thousands of vehicles using government plates which are used to take the “red shirts” to the events.  Chavez´ speech is reiterative:  “the revolution is not turning back, we are going to win with a landslide, since the results are written down, on December 3, the transition is over and we will commence the new era of the XXI Century Socialism”: 

In a press conference offered today, he expressed that the indefinite re election, which he will propose, is not a dictatorship, it is democracy, it will impose the will of the people.  He expresses himself despicably of Rosales.  In various opportunities he has stated that he has no contender with whom to debate publicly.  His campaign commando announced that next year the broadcasting concession will be cancelled to Radio Caracas Television, since its Director, Marcel Granier, recorded a program with Rosales in which there appears an empty chair, in representation of Chavez.

Rosales affirms that the media power of the regime has been oriented, during many years, to transform society’s marks of reference, subjecting it to a psychological war that seeks to destroy the vision and essential values of Venezuelans, imitating the design and propaganda techniques applied in Cuba by Castro.  He assures that the democratic culture generates efficient antibodies to immune the national spirit against the aggression of authoritarianism.  He offers his candidacy as an alternative for reconciliation and peaceful living, and offers a government of national unity, represented by the whole country, without exclusions.  He offers bridges for those pro popular Chavez as well as its directors with a democratic vocation, “because I do not want to reach power to reproduce the confrontational and exclusionist policy we have suffered”.  He states that it is viable to reconstruct the country in a climate of peace and ampleness.  His Head of Campaign, Omar Barboza, questioned regarding the difficulties expected ahead to the government of 2007, whoever the President is, declared the following:  “apart from the figures, which we expect to be favorable, this campaign is the beginning of the end of Chavez.  A leadership has ended, one which tries to sustain itself over fear, the buying of consciences and the thesis of the necessary gendarme.  Chavez is the copy of a dying model and his permanence in power would be a real disaster, for his obsession to impose an autocratic form of government, which denies diversity and is not capable of dialogue with the adversary, because within him, the totalitarian conception predominates”.

PLURAL VISION OF DECEMBER 3

In the front sidewalk, the Academic, Margarita Lopez Maya, an intellectual flag of Pro Chavez, uses the simile of a horse race for her prediction of December 3.  Her favorite is ahead and comfortable.  A second one has gotten near, but with no possibilities to reach him.  The times favor the President.  The economy shows a positive balance.  Unemployment and poverty have receded.  The price of oil will maintain high.  The cities, although dirty and unsafe, leak prosperity in their restaurants, new cars and commercial Malls.  There is a hope of a better future in the slums.  The Rosales candidate has run well. 

His discourse is not confrontational; he has “walked” the marginal suburbs and has maintained dignity upon the stones thrown by radical pro Chavez followers.  Watching the race in its final part, a horse runs ahead, whilst a second one does as much as he can, and the public watches with little enthusiasm, and in some cases somewhat concerned.  The horse that runs ahead, may reach the finish line injured, since he competes with a less fortunate strategy:  the overused polarized discourse, the use of public goods and institutions for the campaign, harassment of public officials, the insistence that the country is only for pro Chavez followers, the indefinite re election, all of which have tarnished the glow of the race. Meanwhile, inefficiency, corruption and insecurity play a role against him.  According to her, it will be a light victory, which she hopes will give way to thought and necessary rectifications. This is the perspective of one of the few credited intellectuals that supports Chavez.

In the tribune of those who bet on Rosales, another intellectual, with equal academic prestige, Professor Marino Gonzalez, sustains that the citizen vote in the December 3 elections is the most relevant political mandate in the Venezuelan democratic history.  We are dealing on deciding between an authoritarian, corrupt and incompetent option in one part, and on the other, the possibility of a system of liberties and institutions, in a frame of long lasting wellbeing.  The voters of the democratic alliance express that they want a government of national unity, able of convoking all representative sectors of political and institutional mosaic.  One that is willing to dialogue with the diversity of an ample and complex society, and put a final end to the exclusion of those not subdued to power.  It will be the mandate to the difficult but factual task of reconstructing the Republic preserving the essential values of democracy.

The Catholic Church affirms that its political independence is compatible with the imperative of promoting and defending human rights.  Violation of same, as denounced by the Episcopal Conference, “is the pressures that are being exercised over public officials so that they vote in a determined direction”.  Archbishop Perez Morales stated that it was not a novelty, except that now the pressure is a state policy.  He declares as inadmissible for Christians, the indifference upon the proposal of the “XXI Century Socialism”, since it deals with a Caribbean version of the “real Socialism”.  The alternative, he says, is not a routine civic question; it is about choosing between a progress within a plural democracy, wherein human rights are respected, on one part, and on the other, Socialism of a Stalinist idea, in which a person becomes an instrument of an ideology, of a system, of a Ruler.