February 14th., 2007

XXI Century Socialism Strategy

Strange turns take the Bolivarian revolution process:  it comes and it goes, it threatens, it promises, it denies, it challenges, it moves forward.  This is affirmed by Simon Alberto Consalvi, joint editor of the El Nacional newspaper. It is a correct reading of what is happening.  Venezuela and oil are Siamese twins not yet separated.  Weeks ago Chavez shook the national and international opinion upon delivering the Enabling Law.  He affirmed that his government will assume control of the Orinoco Basin, “the world’s major oil reserve in the world”, in the understanding that he would end the participation of American and European transnational companies in the exploitation of this gigantic heavy oil reserve that exists therein.  He expressed that the proceedings would be established by a new provision he will dictate upon use of the Enabling Law.  “Those who are not in agreement may leave, because the oil is of the Venezuelans”. He stated that next May 1 will be the deadline for the compliance of what was announced.  The international scandal may be explained upon the links of the private companies that exploit such basin, giants such as Chevron-Texaco, Conoco-Phillips, Exxon Mobil, and BP.

The internal concern is explained by the fact that transnational companies have the technology to transform extra heavy oil of the basin into lighter fuel, which currently constitute an important portion of the exports, since PDVSA´s own production was not able to recuperate after the letting go of 20,000 specialized workers that participated in the general strike.  Minister Ramirez, who also serves as the President of PDVSA is the main character in the coming and going of the revolution.  He declared that he had achieved many agreements with the transnational oil companies to continue, by way of mixed companies, the projects underway at the basin.

In the act of the promulgation of the Enabling Law, Chavez urged his collaborators to immediately proceed with the nationalization of private companies that exist within the energy and telecommunications areas, with an express mention to the most important ones:  Electricidad de Caracas (ELECAR) and Teléfonos de Venezuela (CANTV).  The inquiry regarding the proceeding of how to go about it was left floating in the air.  Government spokespeople stated that expropriation was evaluated as the course of action.  Scandal and expectation were short lived.  There was a first announcement that between expropriation and sale, the one option with fewer costs would be the one decided for.  Probably, and consequently after such an evaluation, it was made public that the government takes control of ELECAR upon payment of US$ 739 Million to the American AES and takes control of CANTV upon payment of US$ 572,94 Million, also paid to the US Verizon.

The revolution car is not going back in the path towards XXI Century Socialism, as affirmed and affirmed by Chavez.  It counts with US$ 50.000 Million in reserves as well as an estimated equal in 2007 income.  It drives the car on a highway, which, as all highways, has traffic signs.  Some have started to appear:  the increase in the expenses demands an increase in the price of gasoline. In January, inflation hit the roof, in the Mercal supermarket stands and popular markets consumers do not find subsidized products, the lack of supply of foodstuffs and medicines is a notorious fact.

The difference between the official dollar and the alternative one super cedes by 100%, which demands to make the currency exchange control more flexible.  The cost of life is higher everyday but it is necessary to reduce the salary of public officers.  The marches and counter marches in the announcement of new taxes conclude with the exoneration of taxes to certain sensible goods.  In order to face the lack of indispensable products, generous subsidy offers are being generated to the land and cattle producers, “if they commit to respect price regulations”.   PDVSA will issue debt bonuses for US$ 5.000 Million “to try to reduce the pressure over liquidity”, as affirmed by the Minister of Finances.  According to some analysts, “it is to tend to the financing of government policies”, since a good part of the missions are not working anymore.  The last chapter is that from now on, the oil income will not go to the Central Bank so that the latter turns them into national currency, but they will be directly delivered to the National Treasure in the American currency.  “We are not announcing Dolarization”, declared the Minister of Finances taking a step ahead of the inquiries in regards to the viability of this measure in the XXI Century Socialism.  These are the turns of the revolution.  They update the interest on the characterization of Chavez regime.

POSTMODERN DICTADORSHIP

A dictatorship of democracy is the objective of the XXI Century Socialism, affirmed the new Vice President Jorge Rodriguez, in the event of the approval of the Enabling Law.  The day before, Chavez appeared on Cuban TV besides Fidel, assuring that his health was improving and that he would always be his orientation light.

The events of the celebration commemorating 15 years from the coup d´etat were, as per Venezuelan analysts and foreign correspondents, an eloquent demonstration of the Chavez phenomena.  During the day, thousands of Chavez followers, with their red shirts and berets, walked about carrying giant photos of the Lieutenant Colonel, on commemoration of his first public appearance in 1992, when he assumed responsibility for going against the constitutional government of the time.  In the afternoon, with his military clothing, he presided a military parade.  The General that headed the parade, from his war tank, chorused the now ritual phrase:  “socialism, country or death”.  A theatrical representation to exalt the memory of Maisanta, Chavez ancestor, who some historians have rescued from anonymity, was added to the low flight of Mirages, F16 and Russian planes.  This Maisanta has been depicted sometimes as a guerrilla, others as a cattle thief.  The regime declared February 4 as a national ephemeris, “Dignity Day” and the 4-F decoration order was created, posed on the posters carried by the battalions that participated in the 1992 coup.  “The revolution, he said, is peaceful, but armed, whoever has eyes, let him see:  soldiers and people, committed in one same ideology”.

Milistarism, was the reply from the critic sector.  Teodoro Petkoff affirmed that it had been a day of shame, for the anniversary being commemorated and for the way it was done.  “Shame to see the military parading in front of the giant photographs of our imitation of Kim II Sung, shame for the outrageous cult to the individual person, as if a religious icon; testimony of a power policy that shows tanks, boots and bayonets to scare and humiliate.  He added that no one must be fooled; this is militarism of a new style, supported on adulation and a giant propaganda apparatus.  Regarding the term dictatorship, a frequently qualification of the regime, Fukuyama adds:  post-modern dictatorship:  elected governors that use laws to control all powers.  They tolerate the façade of democracy whilst destroying it within.

THE DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY REACTS

 Adam Chavez, the President’s brother, who is identified by him for being very influential in his political convictions, served as Ambassador in Cuba for almost three years.  The Island press signaled him as the major trust link between the governors of both countries.  His appointment as Minister of Education, with the assignment of incorporating education to the objectives of the revolution triggered alarm in the middle class, whose popular potential support has maintained firm during the process.  The Church, universities, academies, scientists, intellectuals, artists and political leaders made echo in the collective worry.  The opinion mobilization must have had some effect, since the Education Bill was not included in the ones that the President may modify upon decree.  The circumstance, insistently pointed out by Minister Chavez, does not prevent the National Assembly from approving a text sent from the Executive power, but it maintains the public debate open.  In many schools parent and teacher committees were created to follow up on the measures and government proposals.  They manifested that the “changes in the educational sector produce anxiety, but we must mobilize upon facts, not rumors”.  The initiative to confederate parents societies and representatives of private and public institutions throughout the country surfaced, to defend the liberty of education upon the threat of converting same in an instrument of socialist ideology.  “We propose, they declared, to defend more effectively the right to choose the type of education wanted for our kids, one to be based on the values of democracy, pluralism and peaceful living”.

Manuel Rosales, who managed to unify the opposition regarding his candidacy, announced the creation of a platform of political forces that supported him to face “Chavez´ dictatorship”.

Popular battle fronts are being created which perform their work based on five points:  activation of parent and representatives societies to claim an education without ideology; mobilizations for good public services, work and security; defense of liberty of expression; rejection of the Enabling Law and the indefinite re election of the President.  The parties that obtained millions of votes on December 3 organize networks in the popular neighborhoods to promote political dissidence.  There is a systematic recurrence to the judicial jurisdiction requesting the nullity of government measures which violate the Constitution or the laws, with the certainty that such recourses will not be taken into account, but they are exhausting the national instances to later request the international ones.  This is the case for Radio Caracas Television (RCTV), which will be brought to the international jurisdiction by the Interamerican Commission of Human Rights.

The scenario is proper for the civic reactivation of the millions that on December 3 abstained from voting against Chavez.  The perpetual presidency, consecrated in a new Constitution, is a challenge of unpredictable effects.  The car of the revolution ignores the lights in the highway that indicate it must stop, and it even goes out of the rails, as the RCTV case and the trials against the Tal Cual newspaper, which hold a rejection not capable of being disguised.  The decision to transmit Hello President on a daily basis is not an encouraging signal for an economy that threatens to perish in a sea of oil.