April 30th., 2007

Arms Race And Sovereignty

“We are turning the country into a military potency, we will have the most modern and powerful air force of these lands”, said Chávez in a military event.  He informed of having approved credits to condition the air bases wherein the China built satellite stations will function.  He added that he destined two million Dollars for the first part of the Sukhoy project (24 Russian bombers).  “I took Lula and Evo to see the hangars wherein we are developing the preparation of the Sukhoy and they were impressed”.  He reminded of his decision of substituting the FALN of the army for 100,000 assault AK 103 rifles, “which are already in Venezuela and they are being distributed”.  “The manufacturing plant is ready so that we may build the AK 103 ourselves, thanks to the technological transfer from our Russian friends”.  He mentioned the buying of 53 M-17, M-26 and M-35 helicopters, both attack and transportation ones.  He detailed the assignments he has disposed of to acquire rockets capable of reaching 200 kilometer distances, an ammunition manufacturing plant for the AK 103, the re potency of the existing bomber fleet, and a simulation, training and total maintenance center for the Russian helicopters that “will allow the installation in the country of a manufacturing plant for those apparatus, the best war weapon in the world”.

It was the event wherein he demanded the Interamerican Human Rights Commission (CIDH) to “wash their suit”, a rude expression used in the underworlds.  It was the answer to the claim on the part of such entity before the Interamerican Human Rights Court (Court) for the violation of freedom of expression, personal integrity, guarantees and judicial protection of those who work in Radio Caracas Televisión (RCTV).  According to the Legal Advisor of RCTV, the allegation in the claim must allow the International Tribunal to condemn the suspension of the TV station that the government insists on making effective in the coming days.  Chávez affirmed that the members of the CIDH have no moral to condemn his government.  The RCTV has caused problems to the regime.  It became a flag that once again motives impressive street demonstrations, which did not occur since last year.  Internationally, they have delivered opinions against the closing:  the OAS, parliaments, international parties and unions, intellectuals and politicians renown worldwide, as well as all the organizations linked to communication means and human rights.  The International Organization for the protection of journalists, CPI, as its acronym in English, by way of a three month investigation, determined that Chávez decision is motivated solely by political reasons and it “places a doubt in Venezuela´s commitment to freedom of expression”.  The case will be elevated to the Human Rights committee of the UN, requesting swift measures that rejects the closing of the channel.  Maybe what worries the regime the most is the knowledge of polls which figures show an 80% rejection of such measure.  Only 17% supports the closing, notwithstanding the crushing government´s campaign against RCTV. 

 WITHDRAWAL FROM THE OAS

Never before had Chávez shown the stubbornness that he now shows before such a debated decision on the part of national and international opinion.  An analyst affirms that the closing of RCTV may be the highest bill he may have to pay in his battle against freedom of expression.  But once more, he plays with uncovered cards.  In the so called First Summit of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), which met in Barquisimeto, he announced that Venezuela would withdraw from the OAS if the Court condemns it for the RCTV case.  He affirmed that Cuba gave the example “and has not died”.  He sustained that the OAS, the CIDH and the Court are “not legitimate” and called upon his homologous in the ALBA to make an effort to try to be more independent of the current international institutionalization. 

The founding ALBA agreement was signed by Chávez and Castro in 2004, as a substitute proposal for the free commerce area for the Americas (ALCA).  The oil diplomacy of Chávez conquered the adhesion of Bolivia and Nicaragua.  To the Barquisimeto meeting, Evo Morales, Daniel Ortega and Carlos Lage, representing Castro, attended.  The head of Foreign Relations of Ecuador stated that her country supported the initiative and that President Correa would formalize the incorporation.  Also present, as observers, were the president of Haiti, delegations from Uruguay and various Caribbean nations.

Chávez offered to cover all energy needs of the ALBA members.  He affirmed that in the new period, Venezuela would finance 50% of the oil bill and the other 50% would be used to constitute a fund to develop agricultural projects and projects for the small and medium business.  In the encounter, Chávez highlighted the strategic role of his country as an oil producer, “determinant” as an instrument of battle against the North American Imperialism.  He promised to issue bonds for one thousand million Dollars so that the ALBA members would distribute same in credits with low interests and payment facilities.  He urged the states of the continent to abandon the OAS in as much as the ALBA would consolidate.  He reminded of the experience of the issuance of debt bonds with Argentina and the South Bonds.  Chávez, jointly with his guests, attended the inauguration of the ALBA Sport Games, in which 31 countries participated and held a “conversatory” with delegations from social movements in Latin America who signed, in the of the closing event, a declaration in support of ALBA.

During the weekend, independent polls came to light, according to which 85% is not in agreement with his generous spending for other countries.  Likewise, the dislike percentage towards the private enterprises expropriation is high (78%), against the confrontation with the US (78%), against establishing a Cuban style socialism (86%), and 85%, against the non sanctioning of corruption.  For 87%, delinquency is the main problem for the poor and Chávez does not care about it.  For 71%, if Chávez does not make the necessary changes, it is the people themselves who will take him out of power.  61% is against the indefinite re election of the President.  All indicates that Chávez agenda does not respond to the expectations and demands of the national majority.  But his project is to impose the perpetual presidency by way of a Constitutional reform, supported by a plebiscite that allows the international community to continue with its friendly relationships with the “picturesque” Caribbean oil state.

THE REALITY OF THE PUBLIC DEBT AND THE SOCIAL DEBT

Venezuela paid off the last debt quota that it maintained with the World Bank, affirmed Chávez on April 13.  According to him, the debt, back in 1998, was of almost US$ 3,000 Million.  “I may tell you, he added, we do not owe the International Monetary Fund (IMF), nor the World Bank, not one cent”.  He chorused to his Finance Minister:  “Gentlemen of the IMF and the World Bank, ciao to you, Venezuela is free, nor today’s  Venezuelans nor the children to be born hold a single cent of debt with such entities dominated by the  American falcons”.  He added that the country had a US$ 3,300 Million debt that would expire in 2012, of which an anticipated payment would generate savings in the order of US$ 8,000 Million.

Venezuela being liberated completely from its foreign debt, was news broadcasted worldwide by the external communications web of the regime and commented on favorably by un informed or biased analysts.  Domingo Maza Zavala, until recently a Director for the Central Bank (BCV) and one of the few financial experts linked to the regime, that, not only is he well informed, but he maintains credibility in all sectors, declared the following:  “the debt that Venezuela had in the past with the IMF for the concept of loans to better the payment balance was paid off a long time ago by the issuing entity (BCV)… The internal debt of the public sector reaches more than US$ 15,000 Million and the government itself reaches US$ 45 Million, so that the total debt is approximately US$ 60,000 Million”.

The Economist, Miguel A. Santos, professor at the IESA, published as study in which he shows that the public debt per inhabitant has increased in the last 8 years, 61%.  The newspaper, El Nacional, with support of the last statistics from the Ministry of Finances and the Office of Public Credit, points out that the total debt from the State passed from US$ 36,860 in 1998 to US$ 74,240 in March of 2007, including PDVSA´s new debt increase.  The internal debt, the one contracted with national institutions, passed, in the same period of time, from US$ 4,040 to US$ 16,850, which represents a 320% increase.

The Avila Group, and independent think tank,  specialized in international affairs, wonders if what was pointed out by Chávez as a triumph against Imperialism, is nothing more than a ruckus behind which a scandalous and irresponsible debt is hiding, precisely at a time when the country receives the highest oil revenue of its history. 

According to Professor Oscar Schémel, director of Interlaces, a company dedicated to socio political investigations, Chávez gave the leading role and the will to participate to the poor.  Notwithstanding, the symbolic links that we achieved to create with the people are weakened by the lack of material achievements and the permanence of the fundamental problems.  “Those symbolic links, he affirms, are transforming simple in client based, which are fragile and intolerant”.  According to him, a growing feeling of fatigue and frustration is apparent in the Venezuelan society, one that foresees a strong social conflict and of lack of governance.