November 16th., 2007

Chávez Bets High

Chávez takes off on a tour, that some interpret as a non announced decision to delay the referendum, since there are strong indicia that for the first time, he may suffer an electoral defeat.  Storm winds hit the scenery.  Students defy the regime with demonstrations and civic rebel messages which arise what was thought an accepted resignation from the people upon military authoritarianism.  Police violence leaves daily victims, either injured or sometimes dead.  The fracture of the nation has reached extremes comparable to the ones that preceded April 11, 2002.  The shortage of food and medicines, in part, is due to the fact that once available, the people buy it and stock it, just as if in a state of emergency.  In his tour, the first destiny was Riad, to be present in the OPEC Summit.  He stated that he proposes a more active role in the cartel of the world geopolitics and hopes to consolidate a denial to the increase of production.  “When oil surpasses $100, which is imminent, the fall of the empires will be unstoppable”. 

The tour includes Teheran, to evaluate the bi national cooperation treaties, specially the ones regarding scientific and technological assistance.  He offered his mediation to “lower tensions of the west countries with Iran”.  He defended the right of the Persians for nuclear development and announced that Venezuela has its own nuclear program.  “We are against the Imperialistic threats to our Iranian brothers, and in the case of an invasion, there will be no oil for anybody.  I know the Iranians well, not a drop of oil would come out of Iran.  The same would happen here in Venezuela.” Venezuela and Iran possess commercial relations estimated in $10,000 Million.  “The most dangerous spine of this brotherhood relationship, as affirmed by El Mundo, from Madrid, is uranium, a very abundant mineral in the Bolivar State”.

Only a few doubt that Paris will be Chávez scenario to act as a star in world politics.  He will explain his mediation for the human exchange between incarcerated guerrilla and those kidnapped by the FARC.  He has met with Iván Márquez, Rodrigo Granda and the “Jojoy Monkey”, delegates of Marulanda.  Also with Juan Carlos Restrepo, Uribe’s  representative and Senator Piedad Córdova, who was in Caguán to receive the documents that were delivered to Chávez.  After the meetings, Chávez stated that he expected to take the “proof of life” to his meeting with Sarkozy, in which, the Colombian Senator affirms that she will also be present at such meeting. Will Ingrid Betancourt also be there?  Her rescue would certainly be the top trophy for Sarkozy in the international policy show that characterizes him.  The sole fact that Chávez presents the proof of life and the will to be exchanged, will have a strong impact in the world opinion, especially in France, in the Venezuelan referendum and in Colombia, wherein the Presidential campaign has already started.  It is speculated that the reappearance of Ingrid may convert her in the strong option, with the guerrilla offer to change weapons for votes and the availability of Chávez oil dollar checkbook.  The writer Plinio Apuleyo Mendoza states that a trusted partner in the Nariño Palace is Chávez dream, and Betancourt, as talked about in  Bogotá, is a victim of the Stockholm syndrome. 

  SCENERY AND CONTENT OF THE REFORM

Upon the beginning of November, communication means informed of protests all over the country against the Reform.  The street demonstrations, headed by the students were suppressed by police.  Violent groups, identified by wearing red shirts wherein the two syllable word SI appeared, attacked the demonstrators, leaving some injured, even with bullet wounds.

The newspapers highlighted the opinion of a Magistrate from the Supreme Court, Jesús Eduardo Cabrera, according to which “the construction of the proposed Socialism in the Reform implies for a re ordering that affects the fundamental principals of the Magna Carta and may only be carried about through a Constitutional Convention”.  He repeated what has been already stated by institutions and by the most representative personalities of the forensic and academic world, but his affirmations were news because Cabrera is known as the legal mind of the regime.  Newspapers also point out similar statements from Rectors of national universities and a statement from the Bar Association that includes all of the Republic.  Also the warnings from the entrepreneur leaders regarding the contradiction, that even though consumption has increased, due to the monetary expansion, distrust has paralyzed productive economy.  Analysts pointed out the increase of inflation, the shortage of food, the flight of capital, not withstanding the currency exchange control and the signs of a severe crisis.

Very little coverage was granted by the media, including pro government media, to what occurred within the National Assembly (AN).  But on November 2, Congress being surrounded by rings of soldiers and police, 80 articles of what will be the new Constitution were approved, last one of which, not subject of the recall, includes Transitory Provisions.  The Ninth one reads as follows:  “Until the provisions that develop the principles set forth in Article 112 be dictated, the Executive Branch may regulate the transition tot he Socialist economy model”.   It makes reference to future laws for the development of other issues of ideological character.  The final provision orders to suppress and substitute the articles not modified to adjust them to what was approved by the National Assembly.  For the President, as was expected, the indefinite re election is authorized, as well as all the faculties that he requested for the personal and unlimited exercise of the powers inherent to the Chief of State and of the Government, of the Armed Forces, to administer the public treasure, international reserves, monetary policy, legislate upon decree and coordinate the other national powers.  The competencies granted to the other levels or public power will be transferred to national power.  The new geometry of power consists in dividing the territory in regions or military districts, whose authorities, designated by the Commander in Chief, will comply with security functions and will prevent activities that “bother the social economic life of the country”.  The President announced that he will make use of the Enabling Law to develop, by way of law-decrees, the new principles to be established to undergo the XXI Century Socialism.  Historian Manuel Caballero affirms that Chávez will govern, with a legal umbrella, as an absolute monarch of the XVII Century.  Rocío San Martín, an expert in security, affirms that the object of the Reform is the militarization of society, the civil world subordinated to the authority of those who are the custodians of the weapons, all under the direct dependence of the President.  The Washington Post affirms in its editorial that with the Reform, “Venezuela finish its transformation in a dictatorship”.  Similar opinions are that of El País from Madrid, Le Monde, from Paris, La Nación, from Buenos Aires, O Globo from Sao Paulo, El Mercurio, from Santiago, El Universal, from Mexico and newspapers of the same importance of a good part of the planet.

CHÁVEZ DETERIORATES AND THREATENS

For the first time, the surveys reflect that the majority is against the Reform.  According to the Hinterlaces tracking carried on in October, 77% agrees that the referendum be delayed, (upon petition from the Students) and in the case that it is effected, 49% will vote against it and 31% will vote in favor.  Regarding the convenience of supporting the reform, 50% manifest a negative opinion and 20% a positive one.  One of the survey companies, Mercanalisis, whose field of work was undergone in November, found that the rejection has increased to 66%, and the ones in favor decreased to 28%.  Intention to vote also increased, 58% would vote NO and 37% would vote YES.

Sectors D and E, which had been a solid support for Chávez, manifest that the Reform will not solve their problems, they are severe critics of the inefficiency and corruption of the government and start to transfer the responsibility of the failure or lack of compliance of the promises to the President.  In September, 57% of the poor sectors, supported the Reform, and in November, it descends to 30%.  When dealing with all the surveyed sectors, rejection, back in September was of 49%, and in November, it reaches 66%.  Other surveys also give advantage to the NO, but now find a high percentage of abstentionists within those contrary to the Reform, due to lack of trust in the electoral arbiter and the electronic vote.

 A group of the ones that comprise the National Assembly, unconditional for eight years, made a strong opposition.  General Baduel, ex Minister of Defense, who put Chávez back in power upon him being put down on April 11, 2002, declared himself in campaign for the NO, alleging that he is moved by the same reasons:  defending the Constitution, this time, by a coup d’etat that is trying to be disguised with legality.  Governors and Mayors that in the past were the most eager to battle sergeants, are now hardly active in the campaign, or in frank opposition.  The most radical pro Chávez followers do not hide their concern.  According to the follower Rebelión, Tuesday 13, “a pyrrhic victory could well happen, with a scarce triumph margin, which could weaken the process.  Or worst, a scenario of an exacerbated country, in virtual “civil war”, that makes it ever more difficult to move on”.

Chávez was doubting if he would travel to Chile.  Finally he did, since he would be the main character in the Summit of the Peoples, wherein he affirmed that in Bolivia, rifles and machine guns would rumble if the oligarchy tries to bring Evo Morales down.  In the Summit for Chiefs of State, provocation to Rodríguez Zapatero and the King, Juan Carlos, was provoked.  The propaganda apparatus of the government has been repeating its most polemic expressions.  “He may be a King, but he may not silence me”.  “The King is as much a Head of State as me, with the difference that I was elected”.  “The King did not resist that the Indians speak up”.  “It was Franco who named him King”.  He continued to state that the Spanish investment is not indispensable, as well as certain threats to Spanish residents, and to the Bilbao Vizcaya and Santander Banks.  He warned that he will watch closely the activities of the Hispanic companies in Venezuela.  Zapatero tries to put an end to the storm originated in Santiago.  “The incident with Chávez was due to a moment of tension”.  Trinidad Jiménez, Secretary of State for Ibero America, expressed that her government will not disqualify Chávez, since her duty is the defense of the economic interests of Spain in Venezuela.