December 14th., 2007

Chavez’s Dilemma

“We had studied the possible scenarios for December 2 (D2), for a victory as well as for a disaster, but I confess that in our meetings we omitted the hypothesis that Chavez would accept his defeat.” Thus declared, with the calm of a 22-year old, Douglas Barrios, one of the students who occupied an important role within the movement of millions of Venezuelans who said NO to the constitutional reform proposal. These students brought a breath of fresh air and new messages to the electoral debate, took over the streets of Caracas and other important cities, bravely facing harassments on behalf of the policemen and “red shirt” fighters. Additionally they became the guardians of the electoral day. 27,000 students served as witnesses at the electoral tables and 1,200 were volunteers in the counting center.

In accordance with the information given by the CNE (National Electoral Council), the tables were meant to close at 4 p.m., and in view of the fact that the process was computerized; the results would be divulged two hours after the closing of the tables. The night wore on, tense and riddled with all kinds of rumours, until in the early hours of dawn of the next day, the CNE’s president announced the victory of the NO. Immediately following, at 1:30 a.m. of that Monday, Chavez appeared before our TV screens: “we were not able now, but I will not withdraw a single comma from this reform, we were beaten by abstention, it is practically impossible to surpass a difference of 1.4 points with the remaining results, it is better to acknowledge this immediately.” He confessed that since 9 o’clock at night he had been discussing “the dilemma” with his ministers.

On Tuesday the 4^th, journalist Hernán Lugo Galicia from the paper El Nacional revealed what, according to his sources, was the reason for this “dilemma”. A furious Chavez, closed up at Fuerte Tiuna, refused to admit his defeat. High officers within the armed forces influenced his decision to acknowledge the triumph of the NO. One of the generals warns him that the Armed Forces will not repress the population. From Maracay, the most important military plaza, messages were sent to him re the convenience of accepting the results. According to the journalist’s source, a CNE expert went to Fuerte Tiuna to explain that the although the result’s margin of difference was very narrow, it still favoured the NO.  Upon hearing this in silence, Chavez withdrew to his room in the Fuerte, where he remained alone for a long time, until he left for the Palacio de Miraflores, where he gave his speech. On the 5^th, Chavez himself propelled the fame of journalist Lugo Galicia. He interrupted a televised press conference being given by the high military officers, showing clearly by his facial gestures that he was very angry. He qualified that which was published by the journalist to be “shit”, criticizing that this journalist had given course to a series of rumors coming from imperialist forces through CNN. “I did not want – he said – a pyrrhic victory, which would have been more than pyrrhic, catastrophic.” Where there military pressures in view of the “dilemma”? The information of greatest reliability was given by the CNE. In the three electoral centers of the El Valle parish close to Fuerte Tiuna, where the military forces within Fuerte Tiuna had to vote, the NO won. In spite of all speculations, what is known is that the sector of the NO, after midnight on Sunday, had the results and the disposition of announcing them, if the CNE continued their delay of said announcement. In the opinion of many analysts, Chavez gave the hint of the “dilemma”. The pyrrhic victory would have been catastrophic. The winners were willing to “cash in”.

CHANGES IN INTERNATIONAL POLICIES?

There are those who believe that the defeat of D2 may slow down the Bolivarian revolution’s international expansion as well as Chavez’s effort to take on a leading role in the international scene. It is necessary to review some recent events. The visit of Alexander Lukashenko, the “last dictator of Europe”, was foreseen. They signed new energy and commercial agreements, and mutually praised each other’s leadership. Chavez offered to supply Byelorussia’s oil needs, and Lukashenko thanked Chavez for his loan for the cancellation of a gas debt he held with Russia. He received similar words of gratitude in Buenos Aires, upon the signing of the incorporation agreement of Banco del Sur (South Bank). Kirchner and his wife thanked him for the financial aid with the purchase of debt which allowed Argentina to cancel its debt with the Monetary Fund. “Hugo, thanks for all that you have done to help us”, Argentina’s new president stated with notable emotion. Three days later, the scandal of the US $800,000 suitcase sent to her by Chavez this late August for her electoral campaign would break lose.

The journalists covering the acts of the new president, Mrs. Kirchner were attentive to Chavez’s behaviour towards Álvaro Uribe and Prince Philip, in view of the freezing over of the relations with Colombia and Spain. “I don’t even want to see Uribe,” he said. “As long as I live I have nothing to say to that traitor and fake.

He is shameless.” “He was aware that before December 31, the FARC were willing to set free a first group of hostages, among those who probably would be Ingrid Betancourt”. He assures that, knowing this, Uribe forced him to suspend his mediation efforts. He foretold that this conflict would harm the commercial relations of both countries. After speaking with Senator Piedad Cordoba, he said he had sent a message to the president of France, in which he confirmed his willingness to continue helping in the liberation of Ingrid Betancourt. President Uribe responded that he would maintain a prudent attitude so that these issues may take a constructive road. His country’s businessmen are forcing him to normalize the situation, taking into consideration that Venezuela is Colombia’s second commercial partner. The encounter with the Prince of Spain was almost a joke. Chavez is an important subject within the Hispanic electoral campaign and Zapatero does not know what to do so that Chavez’s demand of respect and an apology on behalf of the King to the owner of the Venezuelan attractive oil-economy may be satisfied.

According to Chavez, his soul has been strengthened by the visit of Lula da Silva, and by the honest praise received from Brazil’s president towards his Bolivarian policies. This visit barely lasted some hours, but it was enough for the televised evidence of their fraternal relation and the signing of new commercial agreements.  Between January and October of 2007, Brazil’s exports reached US $3,800 million and Venezuelan sales to Brazil US $296 million. Chavez took advantage of his encounter with Lula to announce a full agenda of international activities for the following year. According to Andres Oppenheimer, he will pay special attention to Paraguay and El Salvador, where elections will be held on 2008 and 2009, a great temptation to the Commander’s oil check book. Worldwide news are all captivated since last Thursday with the suitcase scandal (Venezuela Today, August 15, 2007), in view of testimonial proofs that the US $800,000 were destined for Cristina Kirchner’s campaign. The Venezuelan government has declared that this is all a manoeuvres against President Chavez and that the scandal has been fabricated in Washington. The issue of the suitcase, filled with oil dollars, which has taken over Argentinean politics, has apparently not caused great concern to the post D2 regime. The government’s measures in these two weeks post-defeat go against the calls of reconciliation made by the sector of the country that is not pro-Chavez. If there are no signs of change within internal policies, those of the international policies remain somewhat of a question mark.

REALITIES WITHIN

A second attack towards to reform will come, stated Chavez surrounded by high military officers who were called to Miraflores to disavow, on national television, the existence of military pressures for the acknowledgment of the D2 defeat. He announced that popular militias, proposed in the constitutional reform, would be created by means of executive orders he will dictate exercising the powers granted to him in the enabling law. The chief of Fuerte Tiuna was substituted, as a message of the changes Chavez proposes to conduct in order to guarantee the loyalty of the military, according to reliable sources. Minister Velasquez declared that the projects contemplated within the constitutional reform would be carried out through the Enabling Law.

Cardinal Urosa, expressed his satisfaction towards D2, in testimony of the citizen’s support to democratic diversity as foreseen in the Constitution, “to which a reform is not necessary, but rather its effective application.” He called to unity and to the attention to poverty and safety issues. In the afternoon of the 7^th, as he was leaving the Archbishop’s Palace, he was verbally and physically assaulted by a violent group called “La esquina caliente” (the hot corner), criminals on the government’s payroll whose sole function has been to torment those who seem to be “escualidos” (a derogatory term given to Chavez’s opponents) and dare to come close to the Plaza Bolivar, close to the Archbishop’s palace. His Holiness sent Urosa a message of solidarity. El Correo del Caroní is a newspaper directed and edited by David Natera, President of the Bloque de Prensa de Venezuela (Venezuela Press Association).

It had to cease its circulation because the government will not grant them dollars necessary for the purchase of paper, as it also does not grant them to other independent newspapers who are on the brink of closing in view of their dwindling paper reserves. In Venezuela we do not manufacture news paper. The Bloque de Prensa has been a staunch defender of liberty of expression and press. Marcel Granier filed a writ before the State’s Attorney’s office to remind them that six months have passed since the government closed RCTV and took over the company’s equipment, valued at US $100 million, handing them over to the state’s new TV channel. In the analysis of D2, conducted by the regime’s advisors, it is pointed out that the news channel Globovision was key to the results of that day, and that it must be shut down because it is an “enemy to the people”.

The National Assembly (NA) approved the economic-social development plan for 2007-2013, which authorizes the government to execute the socialist model designed within the constitutional reform. The NA granted the current Comptroller seven additional years, he who has so far not placed anyone in prison on charges of corruption and designated Luisa Ortega as State’s Attorney. She, who was in charge of using justice as a political instrument of the regime, according to the Inter-American Commission of Human Rights. Before this scene the students reappear, turning the graduation of one of their leaders, Nixon Moreno, into a national celebration. Nixon Moreno finished his graduation thesis for the career of Political Science within the Nunciature, where he has been waiting for months for a safe-conduct or the acquittal of the trial filed against him in order to prevent his election as President of the Student’s Federation of the Universidad de los Andes. Likewise realities continue to appear. The 2007 Human Development Report of the UNDP states that 5 million Venezuelans live with one dollar per day. According to official figures, the State’s assets exceed US $70,000 million.