December 21st., 2007

Chavez Two Perspectives

Chavez’ defeat on December (2D) is subject to rhetoric games.  Beginning of the end or end of the beginning?  Heinz Dieterich, one of his main ideological mentors, affirms that the analysis is difficult, but recommends not evading same, since Chavez handicaps represents a grave threat for the progressive forces in Latin America.  According to Dieterich, the vertical conduction was determining, without allowing counterweights to the President’s proposals, even if these were non viable.  He points out that the surge of a new political class within the process, one comprised of enriched bureaucrats and foreign advisors, with high salaries and a low political level, who kept Chavez disconnected with reality.

“The Constitutional reform that aimed to be sold was such a deficient product that only managed to convince one fourth of the voters”. He adds that the defeat weakens Chavez within the interior front, since popularity was his guarantee of power.  Also in the foreign scenario, deformed for Chavez by a courtesan circuit of well paid international clappers.  For Dieterich, in 2008, the economic crisis may be a matter of live and death for the regime.  “Revolution devours its children, but also its leaders when they become sole conductors”.

On the other side, qualified analysts coincide that Chavez is starting to evidence a certain disconnection with reality.  “Forced upon a calling that makes him feel as the legacy of Fidel, Chavez, once calculating and realist, who listened to opinions, backed down and conceded to preserve power, is making way for a character ever more proud, egocentric, wherein his actions ideology now prevails rather than pertinence, without anyone from his circle being able to say otherwise”.  They also coincide that D2, upon a plebiscite deviation; it was made evident that he no longer has the unconditional support of the popular sectors. The myth of the will of the people as the support of the autocratic nature of the government is fractured, as well as the myth of Chavez being invincible.  The Constitution does not allow for Chavez to reign another mandate, giving way to a “green light” for Chavez’  followers, without Chavez, and it also gives way to a fierce internal struggle within the dolphins, none of which have real leadership.  The crumbling of the Constitutional wall for perpetual presidency, if he were to try this proposal again, this would only elevate the crisis to highly dangerous levels.  Another important coincidence with the ideologist of the pro Chavez is the prediction regarding the complexity of the problems that shadow over the immediate future.

It is a paradox that within each side, there are rhetoric exercises going on regarding the end of Chavez.  The fact stands that D2 made the democratic culture reappear from the majority of the citizenship and that they recuperated the confidence in voting as an opinion instrument, as a weapon for political pressure and of civic resistance.

 COOPERATION WITH DRUG DEALERS

“That newspaper, El País, from Spain, has a colonial and racist vision regarding the political processes in our continent, it is aligned with a campaign to justify the end of the mediation by Commander Chavez in the humanitarian agreement”.  Chancellor Maduro expressed himself with these words regarding a report from this newspaper in Madrid that talked about the Venezuelan connection with the FARC and drug dealers.  Chavez made no direct reference to the report and limited to the following: “the whole world is panicked over the Bolivarian Revolution; this is why they try to “Satan” Venezuela through the media”.  According to the report from El País, the FARC have found their sanctuary in Venezuela, and this is their conclusion based on an investigation undergone in Colombia, that included interviews with guerilla that participate in the program for reinstatement into civil life, information provided by European diplomats credited in Bogotá, and “high level sources of the intelligence services of various countries, positioned in Colombia to fight against international drug dealing”.   According to these sources, there is complicity and co penetration of important elements from Chavez’ government in the mafia and military activities of the FARC.  They do not accuse Chavez of direct complicity in the drug dealing business, only that it is hard to believe that he ignores the co penetration between his armed forces and the FARC and they doubt that he does not acknowledge the implication of the FARC with cocaine traffic.  “What is new in what is revealed in the testimonies gathered by this newspaper is the ample and systematic cooperation in Venezuela with drug trafficking”.

Newspapers in USA, especially The Miami Herald, have published similar reports as that of El País. Chavez’ response and that of his followers has always been the same:  infamy from Imperialism, the responsible ones for drug trafficking are those who consume them, the North Americans.  Some antecedents back up the report by El País. 

Three years ago Chavez suspended the cooperation of the US anti drug agency, the DEA, and he let go Judge Mildred Camero, the main anti drug officer and all the specialized personnel.  The Judge had denounced that her work was being subject of obstacles by high official levels.  According to Camero, the cocaine that passes by Venezuela increased from 30 tons in 2002 to 300 tons in 2006, which is the equivalent to one third of the worlds’ consumption.  In Mexico, authorities have seized 6.5 tons, in flights coming from Venezuela.  In June, Spanish authorities stopped a fishing vessel, near the Azores islands, coming from Venezuela, with 4.5 tons.  In September, the Spanish seized 3.200 K of cocaine in the fishing vessel Zeus, of Venezuelan flag and crew.  The Spanish tax agency announced that it was the fourth shipment being seized, with 20 tons of cocaine of Venezuelan origin.  In October, a British ship seized 3 tons off a Venezuelan fishing boat that sailed international waters.  According to Ken Rijok, a financial crime consultant from World-Check, Venezuela is the main threat in money laundering in Latin America.  Moises Naim, director of Foreign Policy, writes that Venezuela has become an important operations center for criminal webs that operate internationally.   “Even if this situation has been, to date, invisible for the world opinion, it is not for those who combat transnational crime”.

THE SAME FOREIGN POLICY

Chavez and Fidel met for two and a half hours, as informed by Granma.  Apart from Petrocaribe and the inauguration of the Cienfuegos refinery, the D2 analysis was necessarily the theme of the agenda.  What did Fidel advise?  The actions of our mandatory will tell upon his return.  Chavez traveled to Havana from Montevideo, wherein he attended the MERCOSUR meeting.  As always, he was news.  Giving a hug to Evo Morales, he said:  “we are two of us and we want to make the revolution in peace.  Don’t oblige us to do it violently”.  His words, according to the Bolivian opposition leader, do not favor Evo Morales’ government.  The scandal of the Venezuelan Hercules Armed Forces plane, hit by stones in the Riberalta airport was accompanied by that of a briefcase, with US$ 872.000, carried by a military man and passenger of the plane.  The Antonini briefcase scandal was just boiling.  Before a jury in Miami, the District Attorney that investigates the matter presented evidence that Venezuelan agents offered Antonini Two Million Dollars for him to hide the origin of the US$ 800.000 that he carried in a briefcase when he arrived in Buenos Aires on August 15 last, and to deny that it was destined for Mrs. Kirchner’s campaign.  The Argentinean media published evidence that Venezuela had made other supplies for the electoral campaign, and that Antonini was at the Casa Rosada in the celebration of the agreements signed by the mandatory of both countries.   Chavez sustained that the scandal was “garbage” set up by the FBI and the CIA to damage the governments of Argentina and Venezuela.  Minister Carreño declared:  “The US may make up its alibis to Satan and stigmatize Commander Chavez”. 

In the Havana agenda, Colombia must be a matter of special consideration.  The FARC offered to liberate three of its 45 kidnapped, as a consideration for Chavez, whom they designated as the receiver, or whomever Chavez designates.  Chavez declared that Marulanda has already informed him and he would advise regarding instructions for the reception of the hostages.  In Caracas there is talk that the liberation will take place in the Amazona State, in Venezuela, between December 23 and 24, that President Chavez and Senator Piedad Cordoba would attend, and probably Nestor Kirchner.  In a newspaper in Buenos Aires, these are the comments:  “the Argentinean position, which is also the one from the government of France, is that the negotiations headed by Chavez must start once again”.  Senator Cordoba said in Washington that she proposes the incorporation of the FARC in the political life, in a legal framework.  In a former visit to the capital of the US, she said that she has talked to the FARC about a “transition government” to put an end to the armed struggle. 

Sources close to the humanitarian exchange process indicated that the FARC would liberate yet another group of kidnapped before the year is over, and they do not deny that maybe amongst such group they liberate Ingrid Betancourt.  “With this decision, they are trying to oblige Uribe to allow Chavez to keep on acting as a facilitator”.  Raul Reyes, the second man in the FARC, requested the resignation of Uribe to “guarantee the liberation of the prisoners while they are still alive”, The meeting of Petrocaribe, wherein 16 countries of the region attend, is a good point that Chavez scores in his oil geostrategy and the rescue of the ones kidnapped by the FARC will count in the conflictive relation with Colombia.  Indicia that there will be no changes in foreign policy.