January 16th., 2008

Chavez Three “R´S”

The battle of 2008 commenced, as announced by Chavez in his first “Hello President” of the year.  Socialism is the path, but the December defeat imposes three letter R´s:  revision, rectification and “re impulse”.  The mandatory appeared all dressed in red, inaugurating an ideological formation center near Caracas.  He explained the reasons for this defeat:  we were not yet prepared, there was a lack of army conscience, troop discipline, organization.  “I am forced to pull the breaks and reduce the speed”.  He explained that this should not be construed as a change in the revolutionary project:  “this is not a spirit of moderation, but of realism”.  My mind will never stop.  This year we commence the Popular Revolutionary Patriotic Offensive and the Socialist model will be executed through the Economic and Social Development Plan that was approved by the National Assembly.  He quoted the Plan, which defines objectives, strategies and programs that will allow to guide the country towards the XXI Century Socialism, in which, as he pointed out, social economy companies, new forms of generation, appropriation and distribution of economic surplus would be predominant, giving priority to the collective entrepreneurial initiatives.  He reflected upon the proposal for an indefinite re election, which he accepted has been discarded, even though he has reasons why he should stay in power.  He regretted that now he only has five years as President, without the possibility of ruling further than 2013.

In the annual message to the National Assembly, five days later, he radically rectified the issue of the re election.  He proposed to obviate the Constitutional impediment for another postulation.  It would be done by way of a referendum.   Chavez words produced frenetic applauses from Parliamentarians, who shouted the traditional slogan “ UH AH, Chavez is not leaving!”.  The President of the Supreme Court stood up to accompany the applauses.  “I do not consider myself indispensable, affirmed Chavez, but I do think that we need, the people and I, for me to stay in front of the ship for a few more years. “  The Fifth Republic will not be lost by these hands”.

The message added a trigger effect to the conflictive relation with Colombia.  He requested that the FARC and ELN be not considered as terrorist forces.  “They are true armies that occupy spaces in Colombia.  They have to be recognized.  They are insurgent forces that have a Bolivarian political project, which is respected here in Venezuela”.  He had harsh expressions for President Uribe.  The Colombian Ambassador left his seat reserved for the diplomatic body.  In Hello President, Chavez showed he was upset by the Ambassador’s declarations reiterating that the FARC are terrorists and that Caracas has not handled any negotiations in Bogotá for the liberation of Venezuelan hostages.  The Cattle Breeders Federation is requesting Chavez to use his relations with the guerilla to liberate 68 kidnapped Venezuelans.  “We have the testimonies of their families and of the ones that have returned after paying the ransom to the FARC”.  Chavez was firm:  the FARC and the ELN do not have any Venezuelans kidnapped.  He proposed that the Geneva Protocol “regulate the war in Colombia”.  It is evident that the three “R´s” do not apply to the relation with Colombia.

APOSTLE OF THE FARC

Colombia and the world are in shock by the proof of live of the ones kidnapped, upon knowledge that they are kept in infrahuman conditions, amongst which is Ingrid Betancourt.  For El Tiempo, of Bogotá, the euphoria that was produced by the liberation of Clara Rojas and Consuelo Gonzalez turned into a bitter uncertainty after Chavez´ declarations regarding the FARC.  “The first reactions point to an ample convergence of political and social rejection to the attitude of the neighboring mandatory.  It corresponds to the government to channel it and turn it into an authentic feeling of national unity, because it is the institutionalism itself and territorial integrity of Colombia which may be threatened”.  Former President Pastrana affirmed that Chavez demand is blackmail and intervention in Colombia’s internal affairs.  Laura Restrepo, a laureate writer, who sympathizes with Chavez, expressed:  “We saw a light in his mediation and now Chavez disqualifies himself to be a mediator.  I have never in my life seen such a pathetic autogol”.  Newspapers and diaries highlighted what was expressed by Venezuelan Minister Rodriguez Chacín to the guerilla that delivered the ones kidnapped:  “Comrades, we are very expectant of your struggle.  Maintain your effort and count with us”.  Analyst Leon Valencia states that it seems that the forecast of Juan Manuel Santos may have come true, who, before taking on the Ministry, wrote that Chavez and his project were a threat, since he would reach an alliance with the FARC.

In the trip to Guatemala, to attend to the investiture of Alvaro Colon as president, he offered the new government a supply of oil at preferential prices, with soft credits.  He followed to Tegucigalpa to work on his oil cooperation with Honduras.   He condoned a debt for $ 30 Million.  “Honduras should not worry about oil.  They can pay us with beans.  If there isn’t any her, it is in Venezuela”.  He arrived at Managua to strengthen his collaboration with Nicaragua, a country with which he has signed agreements for an amount of US$ 4,700 Million.  He was praised by Ortega for his petition to “recognize the FARC as armies struggling with a political and ideological project which deserves respect from all Latin America”.

It is evident that in the international policy, the R that Chavez is applying is the one for “re impulse”. Effects?  Some Latin American governments congratulated him for the liberation of the ones kidnapped, but distanced away from the request not to consider the FARC as terrorists, but as belligerent forces.  Maybe, to his surprise, the first ones to mark a distance were the South American allies.  “It is the vision of President Chavez, we have never visualized the problem with the hostages as a political issue”, as declared by the head of Mrs. Kirchner´s Cabinet.  According to Correa, for Ecuador, “it is unacceptable that the FARC use kidnapping as a political instrument”. For Bolivia’s Chancellor, what is important is to evaluate the FARC´s actions.  Lula said that it corresponds to President Uribe and the FARC to reach an agreement to free the hostages.  Cesar Gaviria considers that the proposal violates the Interamerican Democratic Charter.  The European Union ratified that it considers the FARC as a terrorist organization and will not change its opinion.  In the entire American continent and in Europe, the most important media censored Chavez.  Even Liberation, the emblematic leftist French paper, considered an obligation to clearly state that it does not believe in the humanistic conversion of the FARC, a guerrilla that has long abandoned any political program.  And what does this R mean?  A definition of impulse is a wish to do something suddenly, without reflecting upon it.  (DRAL).

INEVITABLE CRISIS

During the presentation of the annual speech, Chavez appealed to another “R”.  Upon explaining the behavior of the economic indicators he pointed out that a 22.5% of inflation is very high.  “Regarding control over inflation, we failed”.   He did not offer rectifications, but rather questioned the Ministers as follows: Why have we not been able to overcome inflation?  Why is it so difficult to produce goods of every day use?  Why do we have to import so many foodstuffs?  Why has milk disappeared?  What is the matter with wheat bread?  Why is there scarcity?  He insisted in that one of the factors that have contributed in price behavior is the increase in consumption.  “We acknowledge that inflation is due to a higher demand, but shouldn’t this have been foreseen?  What is planning ahead for?”  He promised that 2008 will be year of solutions.  Even though he did not present them in an orderly fashion, he pointed out some of them.  To avoid an increase in the prices of goods of every day use, the Ministers must be very strict in the control measures that have been taken.  “We can not tolerate speculation, it is not enough to close down establishments that offer goods with prices higher than the regulated ones, and if they repeat it, they will be expropriated, no matter what the size of the economic unit”.  He said that he had instructed the state oil company to create a subsidiary, PDVAL that will be in charge of producing the foodstuffs that are not available or the ones being imported.  “We can live without gasoline, but not without food.  PDVSA must assume the guarantee to alimentary security”. 

The opposition responded that he had lost the sense of time.  He can not continue to evade responsibilities with questions which an answer are obvious, and are summarized in nine years of erroneous economic policies and of a management that he often times describes as inept, corrupt and subject of bureaucracy.  His defeat was an eloquent demonstration that the majority of the people, including a good part of old followers, makes him responsible of the failure of the government.  The people have become very sensible to the daily problems that he has not been able to resolve, during nine years of autocratic exercise of power and with resources higher than US$ 700,000 Million.  Economy analyst coincide that his abuse and threats against the private enterprise have left him imprisoned in such a level of dependency of the importations, that two thirds of the oil income is taken away.  If he restricts them, inflation will explode as well as scarcity, and with that, the unpopularity of the regime. 

Since 2008 is a year with a predominance of the electoral factor, the temptation to project cheap dollars to try to resolve the scarcity problem at a short term will be unstoppable, but the government will have its hands tied in order to expand public expense.  The reason:  more liquidity means more demand, and without an equivalent offer, this is translated in more inflation and scarcity.  Regarding jobs, they simple offer figures:  6 Million street vendors, 2 Million public officials, 1 Million unemployed (official figures), 1.5 Million “inactive” (official figures), which adds up to 10.5 Million people that are not undergoing any productive work, in a population of 26 Million.  Synthesis:  social economic situation seems very complicated, even if the country is full of money.  Chavez took out another “R” from within his military jacket sleeve:  he appointed as Minister of Finances a “Retired” lieutenant, who accompanies him ever since his far away adventure of the frustrated coup d’etat in 1992.  The crisis seems imminent.