February 15th., 2008

Chávez´ Wars

The US has designed an economic war to destabilize and overthrow the government, affirms Chávez.  “We will not send a drop of oil to the Empire”, he threatened in Aló Presidente.  “The price – he added – will reach US$ 200, because Venezuela will face the war and more than one country is willing to accompany us”.  He accused Exxon-Mobil to serve as a warlike instrument for having requested the freezing of 12,300 Million dollars in assets from PDVSA abroad.  “They are Imperialistic bandits, thieves, government corruptors, world mafias”.  In his opinion, Exxon responds to a plan to overthrow him and turn Venezuela into an American colony.  In accordance with the President’s  instructions, PDVSA announced that upon the harassment from the transnational company, it decided to suspend commercial relations as well as the supply of oil and products to such company.  Notwithstanding, the announcement states that the suspension will not affect joint operations in the Louisiana refinery, which now constitutes the bulk of the relations between both companies.  “PDVSA will honor the contractual obligations regarding common investments with Exxon Mobil abroad”.  Bernard Mommer, a Directive of Pdvsa, admitted that a suspension of oil shipments to USA “will create economic disorders”.  Experts and analysts point out that the suspension of Venezuelan oil supply does not signify a crisis of great proportions for the US and that Venezuela could result more affected.  Other analysts think that this is a political move, with which Chávez proposes to praise nationalism and reunify his party men – whose internal discrepancies are not a secret– within a strenuous verbal war with one of the major transnational oil companies.  Rafael Ramírez, President of Pdvsa and Minister of Energy and Mines, announced that a North American law firm represented the Venezuelan interests in the Exxon conflict and encouraged the workers to mobilize against the American enemy:  “if they want a battle, a battle they will get”.

The Minister appeared before the National Assembly (AS) and gave a long explanation.  In 1997, Venezuela signed with Exxon and other transnational companies association agreements for the exploitation of the Orinoco Basin.  The transnational companies would contribute with investments and technology for the improvement of the extra heavy oils, which resulted in success due to the higher oil prices.  Arbitration was agreed for any future conflict, in accordance with a Law from Parliament.  Last May, Chávez dictated that the transnational companies must migrate to mixed companies, with Pdvsa as a major shareholder.  Both companies had a misunderstanding and the transnational resorted to arbitration, adding unprecedented precautionary measures.  The Minister accepted that Exxon be indemnified, for an amount lower than the one claimed, and to reach agreements with the other transnationals.  The core of the issue is that pursuant to the government, the 1997 agreements, even though they must be respected, violated the sovereignty of the country upon admitting foreign arbitration, and for this reason, the Directives of Pdvsa during that time frame and the Parliamentarians that approved the Law are traitors and they must be trialed as such.  The winner of the war is Ramírez, incompetent management wise, but a key figure for Chávez oil geo politics.

THE WAR WITH COLOMBIA

Will Colombia’s government agree to a military aggression against Venezuela? asked Chávez in a message at the National Assembly.  “It is possible - he responded -  because that government is penetrated by the paramilitary and drug traffic, and is subordinated to the North American Imperialism”.   In the events to commemorate the failed coup d´etat of February 4, 1992, he affirmed that Venezuela, in a major part of its territory, does not have boundaries with the Colombian State, but with the FARC, the guerrilla group to whom he encouraged to free the Colombian Deputies that remain kidnapped, saying that many of the ones kidnapped are prisoners of war.  In Aló Presidente he claims that from the neighboring country, a military aggression is planned upon orders from Washington, which he can attest to by intelligence information, both Venezuelan as from other South American countries that have warned him.  “We don’t know up to what point this conflict may lead to”.  He affirmed that the Armed Forces are alert, evaluating the Sukoy bombers´ system that were bought to Russia, “whose missile attack distance is of 200 Kilometers”.

Chávez disqualified accusations formulated in Colombia against General Hugo Carvajal, military intelligence director, whom he qualified as “patriot soldier”.  Carvajal, pursuant to a report from the Semana magazine, has links with the FARC and the drug dealers.  Semana assures to possess reliable information to denounce that Carvajal has facilitated protection and identification documents to Colombian guerrilla and drug dealers in Venezuelan territory, including the capo Wilber Varela, alias Soap, who was killed in Mérida.  “The high ranking Venezuela officer – as stated by Semana – is pointed out by anti drug agencies and intelligence services in various countries to be the key figure in Venezuela for drug dealing and Colombian guerrilla.  According to Chávez, “government sectors and of the military forces from Colombia”, support a plan of paramilitary infiltration along the frontier, that reaches all the way to Caracas, working in the slums, selling cocaine under the market price to win over criminals and providing them with war weapons; and he has instructed to denounce it in international instances.

Fernando Londoño, a Colombian ex Minister, declared to El Universal that Colombia is not prepared for a war with Venezuela.  He affirmed that such possibility is rejected by both countries, but that Chávez, whose mental health is in doubt, has led Venezuela to an unprecedented economic crisis.  “The economic indicators are a disaster, and one asks oneself what he may be capable of within such disaster.  He says things that almost no one takes seriously.  “I do”.  Raúl Baduel, ex Defense Minister, requested Colombia to ignore Chávez bikering, with which he is only looking to recuperate popular support in moments wherein the internal situation of the country is becoming more complicated.  He adds that Chávez is evoking for a desperate nationalism and a supposed threat of an external enemy, in an intent to comprise around him the people that make him responsible for the problems that the country is facing.  According to Baduel, who was in the Ministry until last July, he has met with many fellow colleagues, active and retired, who are not happy with the sympathy of the President with the Colombian guerrilla.  “There is disagreement with the President within the military lines”.  Experts in Latin American military issues differ from Londoño.  In his opinion, Colombia, with a military contingency that is four times bigger than that of Venezuela, has been in constant war training ever since 50 years ago.  Venezuela, on the contrary, has not acted in these lines for over 40 years.

The only possible victory in this “war” is peace between Venezuela and Colombia.

THE MEDIA WAR

The President invited his party men to use the communicational cannons in the battle against the enemies.  He has cannons.  As per a report from the International Center of Journalists, (CPJ) Chávez counts with seven national TV stations with an open signal, an ample web of alternative community media, which include radio and TV stations, newspapers and Internet sites “basically designed to broadcast the official line and discredit critic journalists and owners of the media”.  The media war against him is a reiterative issue in the President’s  language.  What is novel is that now it is centered against Globovisión, a news channel with an open signal in only two cities.  In one of his chains he questioned until what point must the government allow certain licenses in “terrorist media”, and ordered the respective Minister that the call for attention “should not stay in the files”.  The terrorism accusation had just been formulated a few days before by Minister Rodríguez Chacín, “we will proceed to action with this station that has used subliminal techniques against our President”.  The PSUV agreed to an activity chronogram to achieve the revocation of the concession to the channel.  The Tax office required from the company “the immediate delivery” of its 2007 accounting, with the “names and incorporations of its clients”.  Official Deputies presented a document before the District Attorney´s  Office requesting “ to open an investigation against Globovisión for maintaining a position directed to disgrace and damage the image of the President”.  The Bolivarian Circles´ web carries on a program of street pressure against “ an unethical channel that attacks and disqualifies the President”.  The new Minister of Information declared:  “it is time that someone puts an end to a channel that insults the President”.  According to him, “the critical media of the country forms part of an anti Venezuelan international conspiracy”.  In his declarations he explained the reasons that justify his theory regarding the communicational hegemony of the State and announced that he proposes to improve the quality and audience of the media at his disposition.

The International Press Society (SIP) manifested its concern for the official diatribe against Globovisión.  The Guatemalan Gonzalo Marroquín, president of the Liberty Commission for the Press and Information stated the following:  “Our concern is that we are watching attitudes similar to those that preceded the closing of another independent TV chain, RCTV”.  He added that “Globovisión is playing a very important role in the Venezuelan democracy and it would be disastrous for the people and its right for information if it ceased operating”. 

This attack against the means of communication, specially against Globovisión, coincides with the falling apart of the popularity of the President, to the point that the surveys signal a fall that exceeds 30%.  The majority of the political analysts, both from the government and the opposition, have manifested that one of the main causes of the December 2 defeat was the closing of Radio Caracas Televisión.  This is why they point out that if Globovisión is closed, the media war commenced up to now, could become, at the end of the year, upon the governor and mayor elections,  Chávez´ Waterloo.