February 29th., 2008

Chávez Confesses Being Infiltrated

Chávez suffered the electoral defeat on December 2 for having concentrated his efforts by mediating the liberation of the ones kidnapped by the FARC, overlooking the campaign for the Recall to approve the Constitutional Reform. It was one of the conclusions from analysts that appeared in written and digital government media.  The liberation of Clara Rojas and Consuelo González was tarnished before the international opinion by the skillful handling from Bogotá of the imprudent and warlike declarations from Chávez, specially the ones that demanded the acknowledgement of the drug-guerrilla as an insurgent force, with a respectable political project.  The eyes of the world turned to the Venezuelan ruler when he informed the French Foreign Relations Minister, visiting in Caracas, at the beginning of February, that the FARC would liberate four kidnapped ex legislators.  The family members traveled to Caracas and were asked to wait confident of their liberation.  With a suspense movie script, announcements were made day to day, which concentrated in Caracas numerous press correspondents to be present upon the arrival of the hostages, brought in by Minister Rodríguez Chacín, as in the former occasion - who treated the head of the guerrilla group as a comrade-  as well as Senator Piedad Córdoba.  In a national radio and TV chain, very briefly, as later explained, due to a bacterial infection, the President shared with the ex Parliamentarians and their families.  The FARC issued a document, attesting that the liberty process is due to President Chávez´ efforts.  Once again, the leader of the Revolution became the main character in a event applauded by all who are anguished by violence in Colombia.

It was front page news, shared with the assault to the Archbishop’s  Palace, by a horde of pro Chávez followers, who violently penetrated the offices wherein Cardinal Urosa works, and before the TV cameras, the leader of the group, Lina Ron, accompanied by three Deputies and representatives of numerous Revolutionary groups, declared that the current objectives (targets) of the Revolution were, the Church, the entrepreneurial organizations and Globovisión, the news channel that maintains an independent editorial critical position.  The demonstrators vowed homage to Héctor Serrano, who died at dawn on Sunday, February 24, while placing an explosive in the seat of Fedecamaras, the national entrepreneurs´ association.  Serrano carried police officer credentials, and Ms. Ron requested he be considered as a martyr, “because he died fighting against the Empire”.  Competing also as front page news, a demonstration of pro Chávez followers in front of Globovisión, wherein they made public a manifesto accusing the TV station and the private media to be “instruments of the ideological apparatus of Capitalism”.  Chávez, surprisingly, called in La Hojilla (The Blade), an emblematic TV space of the Revolution, affirming that he suspected the infiltration of the CIA in pro Chávez´ groups, since he can not explain that whilst “they are conducting an international high impact operation”, anarchic groups are distracting the public opinion with activities and slogans that are out of place.

UNSUSTAINABLE PUBLIC EXPENSE

He faces other problems.  These have to do with the issues that have been object of his intense campaign during the last weeks, to highlight results and announce plans in such aspects that constitute past claims of Venezuelans, no matter their political views:  insecurity, lack of provisions and the increasing cost of food.  They also have to do with oil.  The conflict with Exxon-Mobil and the indemnifications to other transnational companies, forced to migrate to the scheme of mixed companies, find PDVSA with cash flow problems.  They negotiate to pay with oil, and the debt surpassed US$ 16,000 Million, at the time when the price of oil reaches historic records.  To continue with the social expense demanded by Chávez, the debt has to continue, in part, by way of the issuance of bonuses that both banks and companies buy in Bolivars and sell abroad to obtain Dollars.  As per the figures of the Central Bank, in 2007, the out flow of capital hit US$ 19,000 Million, despite the currency exchange control.  According to Maza Zavala, who was a Director of the Bank for the past 14 years, and considered an expert of high qualification and immune to the government’s  diatribe, for his permanent identification with the left wing, the growth of the public expense is unsustainable.  “Upon the beginning of Chávez´ mandate, he affirms, it was of US$ 15,000 Million a year, now it is of US$ 80,000 Million.  Venezuela produces some 2,500,000 daily barrels.  Once the domestic consumption is deducted as well as the supply to Cuba and other countries, by way of exchange agreements; as tops, we may export 1,700,000 barrels,  almost our only source of foreign currency.  In importations, last year, US% 50,000 Million were consumed, and this number will be similar or higher this year.  If we add the foreign debt, even with high prices, all payments may not be met.  The government will turn to the international reserves,  The operative ones do not reach US$ 25,000 Million, which represent 6 months of importations”.

Maza Zavala adds that high oil prices have allowed to subsidize the popular sectors, but this does not mean sustainable economic growth, since the so called social sector of the economy is fictitious, without organization or will to work.  “The increase in social income does not correspond with an increase of production, which provokes acute scarcity of food and our highest inflation in Latin America.  There are more poor people now than before.  The subsidies maintain poverty.  Chávez gives away gifts, but does not create jobs.  The people who live on account of the State grow without contributing to the national wealth.  People get used to living without working, confident on receiving free income, without effort.  The mentality wherein there is no need to work has been created, because we are all proprietors of the oil and the State has the obligation to support us”.

Oil is also linked to the Presidential announcement of the new tax on sudden profits.  As per the mandatory, as long as the barrel of oil exceeds 80 Dollars, this profit will be construed as existent.  The analysts wonder if such announcement will be just as stimulating for the transnational companies that remain as partners, taking into consideration the magnitude of the investments that must be done to transform heavy and extra-heavy oil from the Venezuelan reserves, in competitive products in the world market.  To all this, the Exxon-Mobil conflict is added.

CIVIL WAR IN THE FUTURE?

Chávez surprises with the information that anarchic currents within the interior of the Revolution play alongside the activities of the infiltrated.  He so stated in a telephone contact with VTV, the government’s  channel, to orient the political movement that supports him, baffled by the rebellion of his most loyal followers, like Deputy Tascón, who declared that corruption is damaging the process and that the most corrupt officers are within the President’s  surroundings, in a clear hint to powerful Ministers.  Another Deputy, Ulises Daal, affirms that within his colleagues “there is a general indisposition”, because they are not allowed to debate and the decisions are imposed on account of coming from the Leader.  Chávez reiterated the qualification of “anarchic” to the groups that tarnished the delivery of the Colombian hostages.  “There are groups, he said, that do not know the issue of power, or anti power, and propose that all must be horizontal, that there must not be a head leader”.  He acknowledged that this is a situation that has been happening for the last months, encouraged by the December 2 results.  “I am a military man, formed in the principles of obedience, subordination, discipline and the unity of command as indispensable for the useful use of an organization”.  He stated to be a defendant of freedom of opinion, of auto criticism, “as long as these are opinions and criticism within the disciplinary order”.  He affirmed that the life of the Revolution is the unity surrounding his leadership.  “I propose to make an internal war against indiscipline in the party of the Revolution, whose Presidency has been trusted to me”.  The Comandante made reference to his movement “without Chávez”, sponsored, according to him, by the oligarchy and Imperialism.  “It is an anarchist thesis that is threatening the Revolution”.

Regarding international affairs, he announced that he is promoting, in benefit of Colombia, a project similar to that of Contadora, which in the decade of the 70´s, promoted peace in Central America, without interference from the US.  He formulated, in a moderate tone, new critics to Uribe.  He manifested to be willing to continue collaborating with the human exchange.  “I do not pretend to be indispensable, but the FARC do not believe in anyone else”.  If Uribe insists in excluding me from the mediation, I will collaborate from outside, if the FARC are in agreement that we remain outside”.  Upon questions from journalists of his immediate international activity, he was elusive.  “In dirty war laboratories, the media war of Imperialism plays for a social explosion in Venezuela, which possibilities are minimal, but I must dedicate myself to the internal politics entirely”. 

In Aló Presidente, he called his party men to top all positions to be elected next November.  “The Venezuelan opposition, this year, will throw the rest, with money from the Empire.  We must defeat them.  What happens this year will define the one to follow.  Our electoral victory depends whether we remain in peace or take rifles to defend our Revolution”. The parties and social movements that differ from him coincide that 2008 will define the future.  An agreement for the appointment of unity candidates for Governors and Mayors is advancing successfully.  Chávez himself has stated the major ones are in danger of being won over by the opposition.  This will happen if the elections are somewhat clean.  If Chávez is serious, and often times he is, Venezuela is awaited by a civil war.