May 14th., 2008

Chavez’s Quarrelsome Tone

During the most recent broadcast of his weekly television program Hello, President Hugo Chavez, spent a lot of time referring to Raul Reyes’ computers. The Venezuelan President predicted the nature of the Interpol report on the authenticity of the computers’ content. He expected the verdict to be: “there was no manipulation”. He said that the whole thing is an US-Colombia collusion to put on a “clown show” and present Venezuela as a pro-terrorist country, “the excuse to eliminate Chavez”. As the broadcast continued, the insults to the Colombian President, Alvaro Uribe, got worse. Chavez said that his Colombian counterpart is capable of provoking a war with Venezuela in order to justify American intervention. Once again, he repeatedly insulted Uribe with expressions such as ridiculous, irresponsible, liar, and manipulative. He asked the military to be ready for a possible war, to execute missile-testing, and to assure that the tanks and the offensive air system are operational. Uribe was not the only target of these verbal aggressions. There were scatological expressions referring to the King of Spain, who Chavez recommended not to attend the Latin America-European Union summit, “to avoid any incidents”. He also used coarse language to refer to the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, who expressed that Chavez does not represent Latin America. According to Chavez, Merkel “represents the same right-wing that supported Adolph Hitler”.

During the South American Energy Council meeting, two days earlier, Bolivia was the inspiration for the harsh tone. “We are not willing to tolerate the Empire destabilizing or separating Bolivia. I have been accused of interference in other countries. I am warning that there will be interference in Bolivia to confront the aggressions against their legitimate President. It would be the beginning of what ‘El Che’ dreamed: not one, but many Vietnams in Latin America. If they agree to install the revocatory referendum against Evo, I guarantee that we will win”. He added a commentary on Ecuador in order to condemn the “separatist” attempt of Guayaquil. Chavez had many issues on the international agenda. He received a Gaddafi’s emissary, who reassured Libya’s support. He also signed agreements with China, including the purchase of 24 K-8 multi-task planes, a satellite and 7 radars for air defence. Chavez announced the upcoming arrival of the last Sukhoi-30s that complete the 24-ground-attack aircraft squad purchased to Russia. The Venezuelan President travelled to Nicaragua to sign and offer economic support to the Summit on Food Sovereignty and Security. He authorized the purchase of 500 million dollars in Argentina’s bonds. He described as an “infamy” the fact that the UNESCO is disappointed due to the “Venezuelan government progressively narrowing the media’s space in the country”. He underestimated the trial his administration is on in the Inter-American Court of Human Rights for aggressions against Globovision journalists and cameramen; for him, the Court is a servile instrument of the American imperialism. He expressed that another proof of the war that the media is fighting against his revolution is a study made by The Economist on the risk of investing in Venezuela. According to the study, Venezuela is ranked 144 out of 150, outranking only Iraq and African countries, such as Zimbabwe, the only country in the world that could have a higher inflation rate. El Universal implies that Chavez’s complains may be produced by his concern about George W. Bush leaving the White House.

THE WORLD REACTS

George W. Bush, when urging the approval of the FTA with Colombia, argued that Hugo Chavez has transformed Venezuela into a sanctuary for the FARC, and that it is necessary to thwart Chavez’s plans to interfere in that country. There is a document running through US legislators’ hands on the nature of the sanctions against Chavez, who considers Bush as his real contender, once the evidence of his cooperation with the FARC has been set. The Spanish journal El País, assures having access to the documents from the computers and that there is evidence that Chavez provides the FARC with both money and arms. To serve this purpose, Chavez has been negotiating with Belarus the consignment of arms to the narco-guerrilla. According to the articles published in El País –and there are several–, the documents from the computers would prove the involvement of Chavez’s administration in the Colombian conflict to be a deliberate State policy, carried out to help the FARC, including their plans to form guerrillas in the continent. The Wall Street Journal also assures that they had access to the files, that the American intelligence services consider them to be authentic, and that those documents prove that the ties between Chavez and the FARC are greater and deeper than thought. The Colombian Minister, Juan Manuel Santos, said in the Council of the Americas that Chavez’s policies are essentially expansionist and that he uses vast resources, including narco-dollars, to destroy democracy in Latin America.

Rodriguez Zapatero, when asked about certain allusions against the King of Spain in Hello President, reiterated that Chavez must respect the Spanish institutions, “if he attends the Summit of Lima this week, I will probably have a word with him”. The government of Peru, where the Latin America-European Union Summit is being held, differed from Chavez’s criticism of Colombia, and expressed their disagreement with the version that assures that this country is promoting a continental war to have an American military intervention in the region. In Guayaquil, there were angry protests against Chavez’s interference in the debate on the provincial autonomy.

The president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, expressed his concern regarding Chavez’s concepts of the German Chancellor, Merkel. “Those are negative statements that do not facilitate the intention of European cooperation with Latin America”. Referring to the commentaries made in his television program, Hello President, about Merkel representing “the same right-wing that supported Adolph Hitler”, the president of the European Union executive said that Mrs. Merkel “was born in the former East Germany, when there was no democracy that is why she really values democratic principles. For us, those values are not negotiable”. According to the Mexican President, Felipe Calderon, Chavez’s affirmations do not contribute to understanding or solving the region’s problems. “Even though there are differences between the countries, they do not hinder the possibility of understanding each other and dialoguing without personal or unfounded insults”. Some analysts think that the controversial relationship between Chavez and the international community has reached a new level. According to the president of the OPEC, the geopolitical factors that will continue to affect oil prices are Iran and the crisis that may occur in Venezuela, if the US implements the sanctions that are being studied by the Congress. Additionally, Fidel Castro’s warning about the presence of the IV fleet in the Caribbean could be a “message to Venezuela”. Other analysts think that this is another distractive manoeuvre of Chavez, considering the upcoming elections next November.

FEARING THE ELECTORAL FUTURE

The Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez, has repeatedly said that the upcoming elections are the most important in Venezuelan history. He summoned an assembly of thousands of high-ranked government employees, nationally and regionally, who constitute the structure of his party (PSUV), in order to explain the method that will be used to select their candidates for governors and mayors. In a dramatic tone he exclaimed that “in November’s election Hugo Chavez’s continuance in the presidency is at stake”. He said that the method, “unanimously approved”, will allow the bases to choose the candidates. He justified being allowed to approve or question the aspirants’ credentials, and to arbitrate in case of disagreement and states or municipalities of strategic value. The territories located on land and maritime borders are considered to fall into that category. “We are starting to experience some turbulences and unity is essential to face our enemies, who are trying to repeat here the same scheme as in Bolivia: fracture the territorial unity to hand over our wealth, and especially our oil to the imperialism”. He says that it is a secessionist plan that attempts to conquer political spaces in the Venezuelan “half moon”, so, claiming autonomy, they can constitute little republics under the protection of the American empire. “That is why I say that in the unlikely scenario where the opposition achieves their goals in November, there will be a war, because we, the military and the people, together, will defend with our blood the integrity of our country”.

From the opposition, they say that Chavez has uncovered his polarizing strategy of nationally divide the electorate, transforming an election for the best-fit governor and mayor into a plebiscite. They denounce a huge redistribution of petrodollars in the Bolivarian missions, old and new, in the massive food distribution offered in popular sectors at inexpensive prices (lower than the actual importing price), in the allocation of excessive funds to communes and unproductive co-ops managed by PSUV activists, without further controls or having to be accountable to anyone, and in the daily broadcasted presentations of Chavez opening works of social interest, offering a glance at the upcoming contributions from the government to society. The opposition also denounce that the PSUV has been organized to control the votes of millions of people whose incomes depend on the government and of those who are afraid of being catalogued as enemies of the regime. A new Law creates the communal police, inspired in the Cuban committees for the defence. The PSUV “battalions” have to gather information on the political behaviour of their neighbourhoods. In a recent academic act, the PSUV was portrayed as an impulse to a hegemonic-party system. “It is not a unique-party regime.

It is necessary to have adversaries for it to be democratic. It is not, but it intends to appear as such”.  Chavez is right in giving so much importance to November. The polls show that his popularity has decreased in 20 percent, and, for the first time, his electorate makes him responsible for the problems that affect the country, such as insecurity, inflation, unemployment, and the public services crisis. In case of being defeated again, losing the regional positions of great importance, it will not only affect his capacity of exerting hegemonic power, but it will open the road for a revocatory referendum in 2009, and a plural and autonomous parliament in 2011.