October 16th., 2008

Effects Of The Crisis In Venezuela

Our country is armored against the world banking crisis, affirmed Chávez, thanks to the “existence of our own financial system and my project to propel a world Socialist economic axis, granting Fidel the position of Advisor”.  It is the opportunity, he added, to consolidate the Bank of the South, in which Venezuela would transfer part of its international reserves, as well as Brazil and Argentina, and I have sensed receptivity in the conversations with Lula and Mrs. K.  In Chávez´ opinion the Alba Bank, which contributed with $ 1,350 Million, his scheme for the Bank of the South and bi national banks with China, Russia and Iran will turn the region into an “oasis” of financial stability; meanwhile the capitalist system definitely collapses.  The Presidential optimism, qualified by several of “charlatanism”, had a pondered response in the National Economy Council (CEN), envisaged as a consultation institution of the Executive Power.  “The recent events of financial character have significant relevance for the Venezuelan economy”. They point out, firstly, the effects of the oil prices.  “The quote of the Venezuelan basket continues to plummet with respect to the historic max of 126 Dollars, three months ago”.  Secondly, they warn of the negative effects of the capturing of foreign resources for new investments, which detains the possibility of increasing the demand of goods and services.  “This scenario could generate scarcity and the need to ration products upon the difficulties for the indispensable imports”.  A third aspect is the postponement or canceling of the plans to contract loans abroad by the government or by private companies.  “The international circumstances make evident the intrinsic fragility of the economic strategy used, due to the inconveniences to make the public expense sustainable as a stimulus of private consumption”, as declared by the CEN. 

The external analysts estimate the impact of the crisis in the oil states´ finances.  Studies undergone by the Deutsche Bank place Venezuela as the most vulnerable country.  Oil provides for 94 of each 100 Dollars that come in to the country.  They affirm that they require oil at 90 Dollars to maintain the current level of public expense.  The Venezuelan basket hit less than 75 Dollars, even when Goldman Sachs foresees that oil will average in 75 Dollars in the fourth trimester and by the end of the year, at 70 Dollars, adding that “if the developing crisis cuts down more deeply in the demand, the market could fall as low as 50 Dollars per barrel”.  (Reuters and AFP).  The analyst D. F. Maza Zavala, well acknowledged in political sectors as the most respectable opinion regarding economy, points out as a determining factor of the national situation, the decline in the real production capacity, and amongst other causes, the lack of investment and the conversion of PDVSA in an onerous instrument of international geo politics.  Instead of dedicating to the production and sale of oil, it has been over burdened with activities that are in no way corresponding, such as the social Missions, education projects and distribution of subsidized food products.  The public expense exceeds Bs. 150 Billion (US$ 70,000,000,000) and it is not sustainable if the oil prices come down to 70 Dollars per barrel.  He concluded: “We are before a very grave crisis that entails rectifications and the government does not seem to be willing”.

 THE STRATEGY OF VIOLENCE

In the meeting of the Inter American Press Society (SIP), one of its conclusions was to condemn Chávez´ verbal violence against journalists and the media, as a stimulus to the competition between the members of government to copy the “verbal style” of the dictator.  The Minister of Information beat his colleagues.  He expressed that no attention should be placed to the opinions of the “gangsters” that met with the King Juan Carlos in Madrid.  A Caracas newspaper questioned whether such adjective should also be applied to the King Juan Carlos who participated in the event, and also to the Prime Minister Zapatero, who closed such event.  The answer was to accuse the Director, Miguel Henrique Otero, of being an accomplice in conspiracy activities.  The threat against Otero and Alberto Ravell (who directs Globovisión) of a criminal trial for their alleged participation in conspiracy projects linked to a plan to assassinate the President, was precisely one of the claims presented by the Venezuelan journalists in the SIP meeting.  Similar threats are produced on a daily basis by the military regime against directives of TV or written means that insist on exercising the rights of information and expression consecrated in the Constitution.  Independent newspapers coincide in that the Presidential verb, filled with adjectives and insults, influence in the surveys, according to which  “the fragility of the hegemonic structure of power created by Chávez” is evident, and who is trying to position a debate agenda that has to do with him, with aggressive and threatening speeches”:  According to Tal Cual, the insults in Chávez´ speech is his way of confronting his adversaries, and he has reached delirious levels, since the surveys are ever more unfavorable, and now adding the collapsing of the oil prices, of the Venezuelan bonds and the world level of risk-country.

In Chávez´ political meetings, whoever differs from the candidates that have been chosen by him for the Governors´ Offices, are referred to in such a way, that the reporters have to excuse themselves for not repeating what they hear, for respect to the readers.  In the Zulia State, he qualified the Opposition candidate as an “imbecile”.  He reserved the following terms for the current Governor, Manuel Rosales:  “poor-devil, bandit, thief, coward”.  He also added “traitors, shameless – crooks, thieves, sold to Imperialism”, to the militants of the PSUV party that decided to confront his anointed, as in the case of Barinas, Chávez natal State, wherein he appointed his brother Adan.  To the members of the Communist Party and the PPT, who, in protest against nepotism were audacious enough to appoint their own candidates, he threatened to “pulverize them, to bar them from the face of the earth”.

Diverse institutions have manifested concern for the effect that the President´s  style may lead to a call for violence.  It is a pertinent warning, since one of the radical pro-Chávez groups, who assumes its identity by way of pamphlets, has attacked the premises of Globovisión with tear gas bombs.  Their acts are sheltered by impunity, and has led them to another act of violence that has triggered general indignation.  The seat of the newspaper El Nuevo País and of the Zeta magazine has also been attacked by tear gas bombs as well as the residence of a TV producer.  “The responsible ones traveled in motorcycles and they attacked in the same way as Globovisión was attacked”, as declared by one of the journalists present.  The assailant party left a communication wherein they accused Rafael Poleo, the editor of both publications, of calling to or encouraging the murder of the President and he was declared as a military target.  The communication that was left by the authors of the attack read: “It is the revolutionary response to the aggressions against our Comandante”

 THE CHURCH´S  CIVIC MESSAGE

The Church, as tradition calls, took on the responsibility of the civic message to summon and bring back the peace and the unity of the country, respecting diversity.  The Episcopal Conference produced a document warning of the dangers of the climate of aggressiveness and violence very near to the regional elections.  The Bishops request not to underestimate the personal insecurity, which is the drama that anguishes the immense majority of the population, but that the preaching of hate and the fanatism of groups that are the product of a decomposing society, is generating a culture of death, wherein the right to life looses its sense and crime is permitted as an inevitable chapter of every day life.  They manifest concern for the financial crisis and the world economy and the need for the government to look for solutions convened with all sectors of society.  They request the cease of the arms purchase to diminish the consequences of the crisis, at least in those less favored.  They make a call to participate in the regional elections, since this may “contribute to the sane equilibrium of the public powers of the regions, in pro of pluralism, reconciliation and peace for the citizens”.  They reject verbal violence.  Archbishop Porras manifested doubts regarding the equity and equilibrium of the National Electoral Council.  Notwithstanding, they highlighted the importance of voting on the November 23 elections “because the officers that will conduct life in the local level will be chosen and as citizens we must procure that such responsibilities fall in those who will guarantee an efficient, honest and inclusive performance, without sectarianism nor discrimination based on political motives”.  Monsignor Lückert, Coro´s  Archbishop, criticized the lack of transparency of the process, the CNE´s indifference upon the abuse by Chávez of the means of communications and other properties of the State for the promotion of his candidates.

Archbishop Pérez Morales, who has a column in the El Nacional newspaper, is of the opinion that the elections offer an opportunity to open democratic spaces.  “The obstacles are serious and multiple for a serene, free and effective manifestation of the citizen right-duty to choose who will govern in States and Mayors´ Offices.  There is no genuine rule of law, no real separation of powers; the ideology that guides the governments action is totalitarian, with all the intimidatory practices and lack of transparency.  Notwithstanding, it is important to take advantage of any opportunity in order to stop the oppressing pincer.   Whatever the results, hope has to be kept high for that which truly has a future.  According to Pérez Morales, exclusion nor apartheid have a future, nor cultural and education hegemony, or unfair inequities; the militarization of society; the idolatry cult to a personality, the massing of people, hate and retaliation.  “All of this may be imposed for a short or a long time, but the mind, the heart and the human arm keep on working towards horizons in accordance with the dignity of the human person and of the community of people.  It has no future with a mass society, of one color and of one mind, of imposed thought and gregarious action…To reanimate hope is key for the gestation of a new society.  Hopelessness disheartens, it inhibits, paralyzes or leads to a non personal submission, fatalist pessimism and life, unauthentic.  Let nothing or no one take away our hope!