October 29th., 2008

Chavez´ Plan

Chávez actions to promote his candidates, broadcasted by 80% of the radio electric space, throughout several hours during the day, makes it difficult to determine the substance of his ever long speeches.  The journalists highlight what they consider to be the news: rude language, eccentric promises, insults against his adversaries, threats. It is such abundant material that his declarations regarding his affirmation that the enemies of the revolution, if elected, would not be able to administer the resources derived from oil, since they would dedicate such resources for conspiracy, were given very little news coverage.  He alleged that for such purposes, he is empowered by the 2008-2013 Social Economic Development Plan, approved by the National Assembly (AN).  The designation of military governors for the new political territorial division proposed on December 2 (2 D) had little repercussion as well, who will taken on the functions that both the Constitution and Laws grant to the authorities elected.  This was construed as an argument to stimulate abstention on November 23 (23 N), since it would be useless to elect officers that will not be able to work in the public administration.  In one of his most recent events he announced the Chávez´ Plan.  In order to obtain attention he embellished it with phrases that necessarily had to occupy the first pages of the newspapers.

He did it in the Zulia State, whose Governor he confronted as a Presidential candidate and who is now a candidate for the Mayor’s  Office in Maracaibo, the second city of importance in Venezuela.  “In case that Rosales wins, we will have to establish a military strategy, since he is a key figure of Imperialism.  If the situation turns ugly, we will take the rifles, we have the weapons, and this is why I say that the best way to prevent further evils for Zulia is to sweep the whole State with our red machinery! He qualified Rosales as a promoter of a coup, a terrorist, and a mafia chief.  He called on to the entrepreneurs of the State to announce the Chávez Plan:  “If we lose I will be forced to review my relations with the Zulia State, the projects and investment plans”.  He quoted the projects that correspond with the development possibilities of the region, highlighting that such projects would be taken on if Di Martino was elected, his candidate, who was present by his side and who he continuously embraced.  This is a political event, are you with God or are you with the Devil, he warned the business men.  “Regarding Rosales, I am determined, I will imprison him.  Be it known in Zulia and in Venezuela, this is enough…The Manuel Rosales operation has started…he is going to jail notwithstanding the electoral results”.

The Chávez Plan is serious and it does not hide electoral inspiration.  The objective is the Zulia State, the emblematic strength of the opposition, and the north coastal region, which votes determined the defeat of the Lieutenant Colonel on December 2.  The 2009 Budget Law modifies the distribution of the public expense (Constitutional mandatory budget) that is assigned taking into account the territory and population of the respective entity.  This time, the territorial factor will be the priority and the States with more surface and less population, wherein the YES option was imposed in the Referendum, will have more resources, deviated from what corresponds to those with more population, specially urban population.  In the Budget, considerable resources are assigned directly to the Community Councils, having the PSUV as their spinal cord, (the political party presided by Chávez).

SPECIAL PERIOD, CUBAN STYLE

Budget and oil make up the daily debate.  The sudden fall of the oil prices made the strategy of the regime collapse, which consisted on calculating the price of the barrel in US$ 30, even if it was being sold at triple the price, and authorizing the President to administer the remaining income, as he pleased.  Any expense ordered by Chávez in Aló Presidente was confirmed by the National Assembly by way of national additional credits, as well as the fact that a major part of the income was destined to Presidential Check books/ Funds.  The differences between the estimated prices and the real prices allowed approving apparently equilibrated budgets.  This time, given the magnitude reached by the steady expense, in order to be able to portray an equilibrated budget, Finances had to elevate the price estimate to US$ 60.  Chávez affirms that the Revolution has “unhooked” the country from Capitalism, and that our economy is “armor-plated”.  Notwithstanding, the Minister of Finances admitted the structural imbalance.  The exchange rate is maintained at Bs. F 2.15 per Dollar ever since 2005, whilst the rest of the goods register an increase of around 77%.  He accepted that he must chose between the exchange rate imbalances or create more inflation.  The analysts point out the obvious:  as a consequence of the exchange rate control and over evaluation of the currency, what you can buy with Bs. F 2.15, is much less than what you can obtain with one Dollar abroad, and as such, there is a great need to import.  Since inflation is the highest one of the continent, (30% to date, 50% in foodstuffs) the costs of the entrepreneurs increase at a higher rhythm than the main commercial partners (US, Colombia and Brazil).  Competition in conditions of inequality implies that growth is severely resented.  A report from the IMF foresees in Venezuela a growth of 2% and an inflation of 35%.

Regarding oil, the situation is dramatic.  The current importations rose to US$ 54,000 Million, as per the Central Bank figures.  According to OPEC and the International Energy Agency, the real numbers for oil production are of 2.4 Million daily barrels.  According to Business Strategy, “ if the oil prices come to a standstill of US$ 60, the flow of Dollars will be insufficient to sustain the current level of importations.  The options are to devaluate or carry on with the problem restricting even more the currency exchange control, producing scarcity and inflation.  Headline news highlight that a possible descend to US$ 55 would turn the current economic policy unmanageable.  There is a coincidence in that the rhythm of importations is imposed by the electoral year, and that the 2009 Budget maintains it.  The entries for expenses abroad increase and the agreements for the purchase of weapons that represent more than Eleven Thousand Million Dollars are ratified.  In such a scenario, what is the future of Chávez populism and his aspirations of a continental leader, underpinned by the US currency?

Chávez knows the reality.  He senses the ill will of the nation and the disgust in his party men.  He tries to turn November 23 in a plebiscite.  He tries to maintain the polarization, preserve the hard vote, avoid that the doubtful yield upon the growing dissidence.  In the campaign he will liquidate the reserves and the foreign assets.  Notwithstanding, the political climate is frankly against him.  The opposition may win the most important Governors´ Offices.  The dissident ones appear victorious even in Barinas, his native feud.   Upon a few weeks before the elections, all seems to indicate another electoral defeat.  He uses all the power of the State and specially the absolute control of the electoral structure.  “Even at seven Dollars a barrel, the Revolution will keep on ahead. If Cuba could do it, so can we”, he proclaims.

A PORTRAIT OF THE REGIME

“The Europeans should not pull down their pants before Chávez´ government and should be more demanding regarding the issue of the violation of human rights”, expressed the Portuguese Euro Deputy Ribeiro dos Santos, in clear allusion to his colleagues of the Socialist bench, which abstained from intervening and voting the condemnation of the disqualification of the candidates that appear as winners in the November 23 elections, and he also condemned the expulsion of José Manuel Vivanco, for disclosing in Caracas the Human Rights Watch report regarding Chávez´ regime.  The Resolution was approved by the European Parliament.  The Socialists, as per the press agencies, abstained because a good part of its Euro Deputies had internally stated that they should not intervene in affairs inherent to the Venezuelan sovereignty.  The German Christian Democrat Bernd Posselt expressed:  “To whom ever alleges that we are attempting against Venezuela’s sovereignty, I tell you that we are talking about human rights, rights which are universal”.  The European Press affirms that the Socialists oppose to the sending of observers to the November 23 elections, since these are regional elections.   The Popular Party has inquired whether they are sure that in regional elections the same irregularities denounced by the Observers sent by the European Parliament in former opportunities will not be repeated.  The government qualified the Resolution as ridiculous and Chávez expressed that Venezuela is the country with more respect for human rights and that anyone can come and visit in order to confirm it.

Fernando Mires, who was in the Chilean Communist Party and was an untamable opposer of Pinochet, is a professor in the Oldenburg University.  Therein he was granted the maximum title from the German Universities in the area of international politics.  He accepted an invitation for a Seminar in the Venezuelan Central University (UCV), where he expressed his conviction that there was no rule of law in Venezuela.  When he was about to board his plane destined to Frankfurt, he was detained by a military commando that subdued him to a search and interrogatory.  The professor spoke about his experience:  “Your passport?. Here it is.  What brought you to Venezuela?  An invitation from the University.  How long did you stay?  Here is the entry and exit sheet.  How many days?  Four. Where did you stay?  He answered.  What do you bring in the bag?  Two books and a pair of socks.  What do you do for a living?  I am a professor.  How much money do you carry with you?  50 Euros.  Which University did you come to?  The UCV.  Do you have a written invitation?  Here it is.  It is not signed.  It was sent to me thought Internet, but the number is in there.  Call from your phone. There is no answer.”  Following, another military officer came and made the same questions.  They asked me to take off my shoes and made the same questions for the third time.  When the fourth round of questions started, I requested to be able to make a phone call.  There is no answer.  I told them that if I was not allowed to do so, for them to call the German or Chilean embassy, since they do know who I am.  Several hours go by.  Finally, a military officer makes a gesture so that I go inside the plane.  No explanation.  The pilots of the airline took notice of the situation, and knowing that this was a frequent event, they decided to wait.  We are before a premeditated cruelty-  writes Tulio Hernández -  Intimidation so that Mr. Pires and intellectuals of his quality do not come to Venezuela.  It is miserable, and when intimidation becomes a policy of state, miserable is an understatement, but it helps us to understand what size the authoritarian perversion we face really is.  Neo authoritarianism does not kill, but it asphyxiates.