December 15th., 2008

Chavez Declares Himself Indispensable

Chavez insists that the Referendum that will allow him to rule indefinitely be carried on in February.  “I am convinced that I am indispensable in the Presidency.  I feel obliged to be here at least 10 more years”, he repeats daily in events that are broadcasted, in national chains in radio and television.  He explains that it is a very slight modification in Article 230 of the Constitution, according to which, the presidential period is of six years and the President may be re elected only once.  According to Chavez, he is only asking to eliminate the words “only once”.  The Deans of the Faculties of Law drafted a document explaining that such proposal was rejected on December 2, (D-2), and that Article 345 prohibits to raise once again and in the same constitutional period, the reform initiatives that have been rejected.  They add that the amendment constitutes a fraud to the Constitution and it hinders its fundamental principles, wherein the government of the Republic is and will always be alternate.  Chavez, dressed in his uniform as Commander in Chief, criticized the lawyers harshly, “they are shameless, a Dean from a Law Faculty should be able to interpret the Constitution correctly, but they are paid to lie, and they go out and say whatever the pitiyanki oligarchy orders them”. 

According to him, the re election does not threaten alterability, and he quoted European countries as examples, wherein there is no trouble for the heads of state to be re elected as many times as they please. 

One of the members of the CNE expressed that even if there exists the will to speed up the referendum time frames, in accordance with the Suffrage Law, the election would only be possible in March.  Chavez declared that any legal impediment could be surpassed by the National Assembly.  He assured that February 27, 1989 (The Caracazo) represented the start of the revolution and loyal to his tradition of choosing symbolic dates, he proposed February 27, 2009 for such purposes.  Somebody told him that the date coincided with Carnival vacations, and he responded:  “it is true, but who plans this?  Nobody knows, lets investigate who decides that of Carnival vacations”.  A Caracas newspaper stated that he, being such a devoted Christian, as he confesses to be, should know that the celebration is before Ash Wednesday, when Lent starts, and which is celebrated 43 days before Easter.  In the National Assembly, 146 of the 167 delegates presented the amendment.  The President of Parliament announced that the proposal will be approved in the first discussion on December 18 and the second discussion will be celebrated in January, so that the popular consultation takes place in February.  She granted the floor to one of her colleagues in order to read the exposition of motive, summarized in the following phrase “the people want the Leader of the Revolution to maintain in front of the process”.  Upon finishing the speech, the delegates from the National Assembly chanted and danced for more than 9 minutes, to the sound of Uh, Ah, Chavez will not leave”.  In the midst of the event, some of the delegates from the opposition request a right of word.  The President of the National Assembly warned them that there was not to be a debate, she descended from her Seat and joined the fun.  All was broadcasted by the TV circuit of the regime.

THE FEAR OF THE FUTURE

Chavez´ hurry, according to analysts, is due to the scenario that is foreseen for next year.  He ordered to approve an expense budget estimated in an average of US$ 60 per oil barrel.  Currently, the Venezuelan basket is between US$ 40.  The total income was calculated in US$ 51,000 Million.  According to official figures the public expense in 2008 reaches US$ 80,000 Million, 70% in regular expenses, which will probably not be reduced during the electoral campaign, but which will no doubt need to be reduced in the following months, as well as new taxes.   He will face the highest inflation rate in Latin America and the shortage of supplies, since production continues to fall in the key goods.  All of the former makes it mandatory to import 80% of the goods and services required by the country, and also devaluation of the currency, either declared on undercover, but with similar effects in the cost of life.  In the last 12 months inflation in the foodstuffs sector was higher than 50%.  The Fiscal deficit reaches US$ 7,700 Million.  These are brush strokes, according to experts, of what is expected for Venezuela in 2009, with a foreign debt of US$ 50,000 Million, which coincidentally is the same amount used to import food this year. The regime is concerned by the ever growing presence of the pro Chavez people in the streets demanding efficient measures against insecurity, housing, jobs, a salary improvement and compliance of what is offered in Hello President. 

Chavez maintains that the world economic crisis does not worry him since he has been announcing what is going on for several years now, the disappearance of Capitalism to open the way for the 21 Century Socialism Model, which according to him, is immune to the aberrant effects of the system that is disappearing.  Upon the argument that PDVSA is not in the capacity of producing 3.6 million oil barrels a day (as per records from the approved budget), its spokesperson in the National Assembly affirmed the following: “even if we do not sell one barrel of oil, we will have the income to cover the budget”.  He pointed out that international reserves are of US$ 38,000 Million, not adding the special funds from the Executive Power. 

The amount of such funds is only known by the President but it constitute a source for the contributions to the chapter of international investments of the Revolution, and as per the Continent’s  press, very recently, Evo Morales and Daniel Ortega have been the main actors in scandals of distribution of money donated by Chavez.  The cooperation agreements with Cuba, apart from the oil supply, represent substantial investments.  No one doubts that the visit from Raúl Castro serves the purpose of assuring the effectiveness of the agreements signed, which contemplate financing for more than 300 programs, and which Chavez stated make up a contribution in 2009 of US$ 2,000 Million.  It is the first diplomatic visit from Raúl Castro to Venezuela with the position of Head of State, and his first exit abroad since he was appointed President.  Venezuela and international analysts coincide in that Chavez is willing to continue as a Cuban sponsor.  “Thanks to Venezuela, expressed Raúl, the Communist government has left behind the difficult years”.  Chavez sells Cuba 90,000 oil barrels daily under preferential terms and new energetic agreements were announced to increase the cooperation.  Chavez affirmed his commitment to the regime he took on as a model.   It is also evident that he needs ever more now, to maintain unconditional allies abroad as well as support by the radical left wing movements that are not always active in as much as the Venezuelan oil checks book is visible.  Maza Zavala, who enjoys general respectability, affirms that “the fiscal accounts reveal that the average oil income is of 50%, but the internal tributary capacity, the other 50%, is determined by public expense financed by oil”.  He coincides with the recent report from the Central Bank in its analysis of Venezuela, wherein they make an alarming forecast regarding the fall of the GDP in 2009.

STUDENTS INITIATE THE CIVIC BATTLE

Chavez, in his everyday radio and televised speeches, affirms that the Governor’s and Mayor’s Offices won by his party will guarantee him a clamorous victory in the referendum.  He gathered them to demand them total dedication to the electoral campaign.  There are several government problems, and I will be here, but the solutions may come after our triumph in the consultation of the people, it requires organization and capability to reach the 7,300,000 votes of 2006.  This is your priority task, of the Ministers and high officials.  “I have called for a new Mission that will be called Simon Bolivar, a fundamental aspect which I intend to delegate in you:  collect 5,000,000 signatures to deliver them to the National Assembly.  Legally they are not required, but I wish that this summon be endorsed by the people”.  Spokespeople from the opposition stated that this is a trick, since the signatures need not be authenticated by the CNE, as it occurred back in 2004, which allowed Chavez to defer the consultation for one year, with the argument that the signatures by the opposition were forged.  They also pointed out that it is a notorious coincidence that he requested 5 Million signatures, which is also the same number that makes up the public officers and the ones benefited by the Missions.

It will not be easy for him, even if he tries to convert the international reserves into votes, even if he jails and threatens adversaries, deprives Governors and Mayors of the opposition from their competences and restricts the freedom of expression, even if he turns to state violence to intimidate the population and puts special accent in the militarization of the regime.  The students have placed themselves at the forefront of the civil battle. Assemblies took place in the Universities in order to agree on the rejection of the Reform and carry on an intense campaign to explain the reasons of their opposition.  They distribute fliers quoting Bolivar:  “Nothing is as dangerous as letting the same person maintain in power for a long time.  The people get used to obeying him and he gets used to ruling them, wherein the usurpation and tyranny originates”.  The quote, taken on as a slogan, BOLIVAR SAID NO, has made maddened the leader of the Bolivarian Revolution, who dedicates hours to explain that such phrase from Bolivar “is out of context” even if written by the Liberator, it does not reflect its real thought, always inclined to recommend a lifelong government. 

The students have already achieved something:  Chavez does without Bolivar’s interpretation as the father of the 21 Century Socialism in his long TV monologues.  The students have been followed actively by political parties, civil society organizers, professional bodies, journalists, union movements, industrials, merchants, artists, and in general, the major social sectors convinced that to allow Chavez the pseudo Constitutional attire of the perpetual Presidency will close the paths to choose a democratic parliament in 2010 and defeat him in 2012.  The ones carrying the flags of the civic battle state that there is no other way against authoritarian military regimes, and in as much as Chavez is willing to call for elections, the challenge should not be eluded, more so, because it has already been demonstrated that he can be defeated.

Surveys carried on during the last weeks point out that 61% of the Venezuelans are against the indefinite re election and only 32% would support him.  If these are transparent elections, no one doubts that the NO will triumph, but the control for the regime of the electoral entities and other public entities, as well as the military presence in the elections, as a pretext of the Plan Republica, constitute the card that Chavez is gambling for in this desperate effort for the perpetual presidency.