December 30th., 2008

The Country  Before Chavez Biggest Challenge

February 15 will be the Referendum for the Constitutional Reform that will allow to exercise the indefinite Presidency.  Chavez announces it and reiterates it emphatically.  The President of the National Assembly (NA) guaranteed that the respective agreement will be approved in time to satisfy the Commander in Chief and the National Electoral Council (NEC) informed that the measures had been taken in order to summon the consultation, upon receipt of the agreement by the Assembly.  Students claimed for the right to be able to register in the Electoral Registry, given the 320,000 youngsters that will turn 18 before February 15 and that according to the Constitution are legally able to vote.  In accordance with legal provisions, the date to celebrate the Referendum should be determined between 60 and 90 days following the submittal of the request before the NEC, and the proposed date will deprive citizens able to vote of their political rights.  The President of the Supreme Court declared her support to Chavez’ request.   Upon the claim that giving her opinion on the matter would impose her to inhibit from the recourses presented before the Court, she denied such a possibility, alleging that her opinion was being issued as a citizen and not as the President of the Supreme Court.  Chavez encourages his party men to conquer support for the re election in daily events.  “We must ensure that I can stay in power for at least six more years; if I were to lose the modification of the Constitution, I would have to start packing”.  The auditorium of red shirts and military people stands up to deny such a statement and they voice out:  Uh Ah Chavez is not leaving!  The government newspaper Vea argues that the re election does not respond to the ambitions of power sustained by the opposition, but to love for the country, and conviction that he is the only one that can turn into reality the future of grandeur aspired by the Bolivarian people, “if there is no re election, there is the danger that a fratricide struggle for succession begins”.  In the auditoriums of business men and the middle class, Chavez states that the re election is the guarantee for stability, and that his presence in the Presidency is indispensable for the peace of the Republic.

From the various reports and declarations from those who oppose the indefinite re election, there is optimism given the results of the last two electoral events, but there is a clear understanding that February 15 is the biggest and most dangerous challenge presented by Chavez.  The events following the regional elections show that the objective to impose the YES option has not boundaries.  The Governors and Majors from the opposition that turned winners were deprived of their powers and budgetary resources.  To date, the candidate that won the Governor’s  Office of Tachira State has not been allowed to take office with fraud allegations.  The argument is not convincing since all the electoral centers where controlled by pro Chavez followers.  It is evident that restrictions to the rights of information and opinion are increasing, that the violation to human rights has no limits and that the President carries on his campaign with the State’s  instruments and resources, in such terms that it exceeds the abuse to try to turn the message that it is impossible to defeat Chavez again.  It is also evident that the NO strategy is trying for the polarization to be between Chavez, violating the Constitution, and society defending it.  One of their slogans is:  “The power of the vote over the abuse of power”.

THE CARDINAL SPEAKS AND CHAVEZ GETS INFURIATED

The national project is not consolidated, it requires new impulses, manifested Chavez in the End of the Year salutation to the Armed Forces.  It was his argument to justify the proposal for the Constitutional reform before his mates in arm.  “This is not about a personal project of me staying in power forever.  This is about a national project that must be consolidated”.  He manifested that such project is inspired in the thought of Bolivar, “that commits us a soldiers”.  He added with emphasis:  “the consultation is a go, the reform is a go, it is the will of the nation”.  For the fourth time in one week he manifested his disgust regarding a declaration by Cardinal Urosa, who declared that upon the existing polarization in the country, the Church calls for a reconciliation, understanding and dialogue, and made a call to the public powers to affront, together, the problem of the insecurity.  “To make the story short, in the churches in Caracas, mass on Christmas eve can not be celebrated since the people are afraid to be out of their houses late at night”.  Once questioned by journalists regarding the reform, he responded that he abides by the Constitutional text, which establishes that a proposal rejected by the people may not be presented within the same period.  “The indefinite re election does not go with the feeling of the people, similar proposals have not been successful in the history of Venezuela”.   He asked to give thought to the matter to avoid a conflictive situation in the future.  The following day, Chavez urged him to take off his clergy clothes and turn into a politician.  “It is regretful that a leader of the Church tries to manipulate by lying.  He knows that he is lying”.  Through the government’s  TV, he said that Cardinal Urosa’s declarations are a kick to ethics, and to the religious investiture.  “If Christ were to appear in flesh and bones, he would whip Urosa and kick him out of the Church”.  The Cardinal’s declarations have had a strong impact.  The most diverse sectors have pronounced themselves to praise him, and Chavez disgust is so manifest that he looses no opportunity to contradict him.

 Publications of important newspapers from Europe and the United States have caused him as much disgust as the declarations from the Cardinal. Chavez has referred to The Washington Post, The New York Times, El Pais and El Mundo of Madrid, by editorials wherein pretensions of detaining power indefinitely and exercising such power in a despotic way have been denounced. As always, the comments is that this is about a media conspiracy from Imperialism against the Bolivarian Revolution.  Chavez’ harshest phrases have been against La Estampa, an Italian newspaper that denounced the use of Conviasa, a Venezuelan airline, by Iran, to transport weapons.  The newspaper affirms that it had access to Western intelligence reports according to which Iran is transporting military equipment to Syria in Conviasa’s airplanes that cover the Tehran – Damascus – Caracas route.  “The concern centers in the fact that Tehran might have found a transportation system that allows to overcome obstacles in the importation and exportation of material forbidden by the United Nations”.  Officers from the Maiquetia airport state that the strange route uses the Presidential slide, without being subject of any customs measures.

All this adds up with a claim against him for the violation of human rights, which is currently before the International Penal Court.  Furthermore, the Spanish depute, Carlos Iturgariz, has requested that the European Parliament, condemns, on account of being illegitimate, Chavez’ intent to perpetuate himself in power.

THE CRISIS AND THE CENTURY XXI SOCIALISM

The radio and TV Chain broadcasted on December 24 surprised Venezuelans that were about to celebrate Christmas Eve.  The surprise was a major one when the President appeared on the TV screens in Church, during mass, reading passages of the Bible.  Upon his exit from Temple, he declared that the world crisis would not affect the country.  “We have taken measures timely, our economy is robust”.  “It is a message for those who are happy rubbing their hands and believing that the crisis will finish Chavez”.  The Finances Minister does not share the same Presidential optimism, and stated in a communication that financial crisis will last at least three years.  The Minister, who served in the General Secretariat of OPEC, is conscious that the reduction on production, agreed in Algiers by the Cartel, has not had the desired impact, that the world demand will keep receding and it will deepen even more in 2009, to the point that according to the World Bank, oil will be quoted around US$ 40.  Chavez has finally acknowledged the tendency to reduction, which specially affects the Venezuelan basket, although he reiterated: “even if oil reaches zero, the Revolution will keep on”.  According the experts criteria, the measures that will come after the Referendum will be very severe, since the 2009 budget is calculated in US$ 60 per barrel, which means a difference of US$ 30,000 Million, if in fact PDVSA produces 3,600,000 barrels, a figure that is very far from reality, as affirmed by the International Energy Agency and OPEC.  Analysts add that the oil industry is completely tied to the money petitions from the Executive Power, and that Chavez’ reforms, the last one of which was the tax for “fast profits”, left the private companies working in the country on the verge of the confiscation of their income.  “The majority of transnational companies prefer to “look at the bulls from afar” awaiting for better times for investment.  The fall of the prices will probably bring new airs of change in the oil policy”.  It will be the major theme for debate in the coming year and the bitterest drink for Chavez.  It does not have to mean his end, as he bragged on Christmas Eve, since he will be elected until 2013, and his most eager adversaries want him in the Presidency, affronting the question of whether the XXI Century Socialism is compatible with the gravest economic crisis of the last one hundred years, in a country that depends entirely on oil.

There are expectations on the effects of the crisis in Chavez geo politics and his ascend as a first line character in the international scenario.  He has signed hundreds of energy agreements that his counterparts sign seduced by the promises of financing.  With oil he has conquered unconditional allies in Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador and a strong influence in the Caribbean and Central America.  Also, intimate friendship relations with Argentina and significant support from Brazil. The strategic alliances with Iran, Russia and Byelorussia and Syria respond to foreign policy and commercial interests of those countries, and should not be affected.  China turns into an incognita, since the interest for our oil was determined by the high oil prices.  Cuba does not admit any doubts since Chavez depends politically of Havana, whose officers control the springs of power, of which it may not disengage without affecting security and intelligence services that have constituted the pillars of his government.  The crisis will not put an end to Chavez, but it will probably put an end to his strenuous and influential foreign policy.