January 15th., 2009

Perpetual Presidency?

“I will not go, and I don’t want to go.  I need some 30 more years to finalize the Socialist project.  It is dangerous to change the Captain in the middle of the trip, before reaching the destiny”.  These were Chavez’ affirmations in his yearly speech to the nation rendering accounts to the National Assembly.  He spoke for more than 8 hours, in a national TV and Radio chain broadcasting.  He presented a balance of the politics applied during his government, supported by graphics made by the Ministers and high ranking Officials.  He assured that all had been successful during the decade, regretting the lack of capacity to inform the population and the attitude of the majority of the private media, who give little importance or silence the relevant aspects of his performance.  Upon presenting each one of his achievements, he emphasized the need for the Constitutional reform that will allow him to continue the necessary time to consolidate the XXI Century Socialism. 

He chanted several songs, which made the Ambassadors laugh, many of which offered signs of boredom.  In his long “monologue”, as qualified by journalists that cover the Parliamentary source, it called to attention the fact that he did not make any reference to the insecurity, and he dedicated only one minute to inflation, and both problems appear as the most felt needs in the surveys.   On the contrary, he dedicated various hours to the plans and projects that will turn Venezuela into world potency, if the people allow him to govern beyond the Constitutional period.

The opposition sustains that he did not comply with the Constitutional duty of informing regarding achievements, that it was all about an electoral event, demonstrating the fear that overwhelms him for the rejection to the perpetual presidency.  They point out, as strong indicia, the changes included in the question of the Referendum upon Chavez request.  When he presented the idea, he sustained that it should limit to the President, to avoid regional Caudillos that could endanger the Revolution, and it was approved in those terms in the first discussion by the National Assembly.  On the second discussion, the re election was extended to all the officials of electoral character.  The text of the question is inexplicable: Do you approve of the modification of Articles 160, 162, 174, 192 of the Constitution of the Republic, carried on by the National Assembly, that amplifies the political rights of the people with the purpose of allowing any citizen, in the exercise of a position of popular election, be able to be a candidate for the same position, for the time established by the Constitution, and his possible election depending exclusively on the popular vote?

The law makers think that the re election was already rejected on December 2, that the Constitution forbids to present another proposal in the same period, and that the fraud originated by the pretension of reforming, by way of the reform or modification, the fundamental principles of the Constitution, is now extended with new violations of the text, as disqualifying hundreds of thousands of young voters, who are of legal age and demand to be able to vote.  They point out that amongst such harsh remarks, another one is added, the non compliance of regulations that are in order for the passing of a bill (law).  The oppositions states that all these confirms the lack of institutions, since all of the organs of the public power obediently complies with the Presidential will, as aberrant as it may be.

CHAVEZ SENSES A THIRD DEFEAT

The civic battle against re election will be hard.  The day following the message, the National Assembly gave legal form to the Presidential demand and submitted same to the National Electoral Council (NEC).  Directives of the entity manifested that they were in due conditions of guaranteeing February 15 as the date, since the activity schedule was commenced on December, 8 days following the President’s idea.  The students were violently repressed in their demonstrations against their disqualification to be able to vote.  The President, in his message, made emphasis to the accusations against the means of communication, especially Globovision, the news channel that has been threatened to be closed.  The accusations were set on the owners of newspapers and opposition politicians that may be prosecuted for conspiracy.  The Social Christians were object of sabotage in an event organized to commemorate 63 years of the founding of the Party, and a tear gas bomb was dropped on the premises.  The pro Chavez digital newspapers and the programs of the Government’s media ask for severe punishment for those who speak up against the re election.  Chavez does not seem eager to take a third electoral defeat, and he said that if he looses, he will retire from the Presidency, provoking a power crisis that will bring bloodshed to the country.  The message has a double purpose:  stimulate his party men so that they work entirely for the electoral campaign and terrorize the big social sector that has declared not be with Chavez nor with the opposition parties (the Ni Nis). 

This is how it has been perceived by the political world, with their effort to annoy the strategy, manifesting that what is at stake is not the Presidency, and that the problem of February 15 is a confrontation between Venezuelans, backed on the Constitution, against the intent of its violation, by establishing the perpetual presidency.

Pursuant to the most recent polls, the NO wins over 15 advantage points, but they warn that Chavez maintains support, and the referendum will be decided by the Ni Nis, which constitute the major block.  Chavez counts with 6 TV networks of national reach, amongst others, the frequency and equipment ceased, with no compensation, to RCTV, plus the State channel, the Radio Nacional, as well as radio circuits, radio stations and community newspapers, plus the advantage of forcing independent TV and radio stations to broadcast government propaganda, complying with the legislation known as the Gag Law.  The advantage of the opposition is that the US$ 780,000 Million that have been administered are not visible in the quality of life of the people, in the solution for poverty, in the improvement of public services, especially in health and education.  Unemployment exists in such magnitude that half of the population is dedicated to informal sales, more than one million families lack housing; traffic circulation is a disaster in all the country, and most of all, the majority blames Chavez, and not only his collaborators, for the negligence before the problems that they face, particularly insecurity.  The surveys show that between 80 and 90% of Venezuelans feel uncomfortable regarding the ambiance of tension created by Chavez, and reject the preaching of hate and wish for a climate of peaceful coexistence, as well as a national agreement to confront the global economy crisis, which effects in Venezuela are minimized by Chavez, on the contrary of the manifestations from national and international experts, which are supported by irrefutable data.  Accordingly, if the elections are clean, Chavez will again suffer a new defeat.  Sumate, with the support of various sectors, is preparing “super witnesses”, capable of watching over the compliance of the legal provisions and the transparency of the process.

CHAVEZ ANTISEMITISM

“The guilty one is Hitler for not having finished his task”, this was the text of one of banners carried by the red-shirt followers summoned to a demonstration to support Hamas in their conflict with Israel.  A group of people covered with masks, and upon the indifference of the authorities, painted offensive remarks in the fence that surrounds the Caracas’ synagogue.  Chavez, both in his Hello President as in his annual report to the National Assembly, dedicated a good part of his interventions to condemn, as genocide, Israel’s military action and ordered the rupture of relations.  In the National Assembly the President of the entity and several deputes presented themselves with Palestinian scarves.   Chavez had given reiterated manifestations of his anti-Semite policy, to the point that Jewish military, majorly professionals and business men, have emigrated.  The world press reports that Chavez’ picture has become a constant in the various manifestations that countries have against Israel.  In many of the banners, Chavez appears with a kufiya, the traditional scarf that Yasser Arafat introduced as a symbol for his cause.  A street in Bireh, to the north of Lebanon, has been baptized with Chavez’ name, “he has turned into a hero for the Arab countries”, is the conclusion of the Middle East analysts.  “His decision is a slap to all the countries that maintain embassies in Israel, and the Arab governments should learn from Chavez”, as expressed by Hasan Nasrala, Hezbollah’s maximum leader.  Chavez’ opposition has served for his allies to mark distance, since only Bolivia accompanies him, whilst Cuba reduces to condemn what has happened in the pages of its official press.  The Tel Aviv media and the world press, influenced by Jews, affirm that such aggressive racism must remind the world who is governing Venezuela, and his systematic intromission in affairs not of his business.

The oil and fiscal scenario demands for changes that may be surprising in domestic policy.  Chavez, they say, believed that the reserves and the oil prices, allowed him all kinds of heterodoxies, and now, the reality of oil may descend him from the Olympus created by his fantasy.  In the message to the National Assembly, he affirmed that investment in the next 5 years, in special programs, would exceed US$ 220,000 Million.  Experts have replied that all his speech about oil responds to a farce:  the production volumes do not surpass the 3 Million that he now brags about.  If the price were to be $50 per barrel for a real production of 2.4 Million barrels per day, and an exportation of 1.7 Million barrels per day, the income would be of 31 Billion, which is half of the expense budget for 2009 and insufficient for the importation of goods and services, which was of 50 Billion last year.

Dramatic changes may also occur in the international policy.  The pro Chavez decade has been characterized by the disappearance of a State policy in International relations, with a dangerous isolation from the community of nations.  The treatment given to his two main commercial Partners, the United States and Colombia constitutes an outrage.  Anything can be expected from Chavez, he is a pragmatic.  Uribe is a patient man, and Obama, an interrogation.