March 25th., 2009

Chávez’s Measures

The Venezuelan anti-crisis proposal has as its premise to prove that it is possible to face a crisis by running forward, without tightening your belts. Such was the opinion of the Latin Press (Prensa Latina) correspondent with regards to the measures announced by Chávez as anti-crisis actions. This opinion is particularly significant because the Latin Press (Prensa Latina) is the Cuban means of communication which always, as is logical, positively informs regarding Chávez. This opinion regarding Chávez’s announcements is correct. All in all, no major changes were made to the regime’s economic policies, except for the budget’s reform, the VAT increase from 9% to 12% and the increase of internal debt. Chávez sent the 2009 Budget Law’s reform to Congress, changing the price of oil from 60 to 40 dollars, which, according to him, will produce a cutback of 11 billion bolívares in the estimated income. In order to cover the gap between income and expenses he increases the VAT and internal debt to 15,800 million dollars. Chávez addressed bankers, mentioning some of them by name, warning them that if they were to make things difficult, the amounts of the mandatory credit portfolios would be transferred to a state fund.

The adjustment did not affect the missions in any way, there will be no devaluation, nor increase in the price of gas. According to Chávez, the non-oil area will count with 100.000 million dollars and 125,000 for the hydrocarbons industry. The support for this plan will be the production of 3,172,000 daily barrels of oil. This estimate constitutes the Achilles’ heel of the whole strategy announced since according to the OPEC, in January Venezuela produced 2,290,000 daily barrels. To this difference, which is close to a million daily barrels, once you deduct internal consumption and gas smuggling,  plus supply to Cuba and other countries, it becomes obvious that Venezuela sells less than 1,500,000 daily barrels. Chávez obtains and may continue obtaining foreign currency with prospective oil sales, as was done with Japan and China. An expert assures that by way of the Chinese Fund, Venezuela receives $4,000 million in cash and would give the Chinese ten million tons of heavy oil, at a discount of eleven dollars. On the other hand Venezuela takes on the payment of transportation and insurance bills, between 5 and 6 dollars per barrel. “We are mortgaging the oil supply flow, in exchange for being paid ahead of time. It is a debt mechanism, with the added drawback that, in compromising part of the production it will not generate income, because it was paid for ahead of time. Financing Hugo Chávez’s financial excesses with prospective oil sales, constitutes an act of treason to the country because it is the future of current Venezuelans and next generations which is being mortgaged” ( Orlando Ochoa)

According to analysts, these measures are means for buying time, waiting for an increase of oil prices. This contention wall which Chávez is trying to build to avoid the whiplash of a world crisis is built on the highest indebtedness of the decade. It generates uncertainty because new exchange and monetary measures were announced simultaneously. Businessmen assure that these announcements further deteriorate the precarious rule of law and frighten away possibilities of investing in production of goods, both for national and foreign capital. It darkens the future and constitutes a warning of an economic recession and an extremely high inflation still on the rise. This is the summary of the effects produced by Chávez’s measures.

ATTEMPT TO INCARCERATE ROSALES

The Manuel Rosales case has filled the pages of written news and TV broadcasts. He was the candidate who ran up against Chávez in the presidential elections,  he leads the main opposition party and is current Mayor of Maracaibo, the second most important city in the country. Chávez made great efforts in favor of the candidates in his party, the PSUV and Rosales beat them, obtaining majority for the Mayor’s Office and for his candidate to the Zulia Governorship.  Chávez could not let this humiliation go and threatened with placing him in jail, in addition to all kinds of insults. “I will put you in jail because a despicable person such as you does not deserve the right to roam the streets freely, criticizing my government”.

Rosales was accused of illicit enrichment while carrying out his functions as Governor of Zulia. The Mayor affirms that the Treasury Inspector’s Office has studied the accusation and has found no evidence to sustain the Attorney General’s Office proceedings. Chávez waited until the February 15 referendum and reiterated that Rosales should be in jail. The Attorney General’s Office proceeded immediately, ordering a Maracaibo judge to put the Mayor on trial. The Judge, awaiting no further instructions, ordered the opening of the case and his arrest. Rosales requested the hearing stipulated in procedural law in order to be specifically and clearly informed of what he was being accused with, and then proceeded to file his own defense statement. The preliminary hearing was postponed, which forbids Rosales access to the file. The Supreme Court intervened, with the proposed decision of General Eladio Aponte, President of the Penal Chamber of this court, and ordered the transfer of the trial to Caracas. Another clear demonstration that the Attorney General’s Office, the Supreme Court and the judges all submit passively to the President’s orders, and the reason for the transfer is the active solidarity that the people of Zulia feel for Rosales. An assembly was organized called AL ZULIA SE RESPETA (DON’T DISRESPECT ZULIA) and more than 100,000 people went, as well as opposition Governors and Mayors, who in addition to rejecting the accusations against Rosales announced the creation of a National Democratic Front.

Some are of the opinion that this trial against Rosales was activated to distract public attention away from the measures which would be proposed by Chávez. It is possible, since this issue has become the subject of many interviews to public officials and opposition leaders, and many more commentaries in all means of communication. To this respect there are also the Mayor’s declarations, who said he would not travel abroad to attend the meeting in Guatemala of the Socialist International (SI), and has used very harsh language against Chávez. “I have beat you many times with votes, and now I will beat you proving that I am an honest man, a man with courage who defends democracy. I would like to see you without your group of militaries, to see if you are brave. I hope to God that one day we may meet in order to see how brave you are”.

The Rosales trial has had the effect of settling some differences among opposition governors and mayors, since these come from different parties. They were all present and actively participated in the assembly “Al Zulia se respeta”. They proposed and created a National Front for the defense of the Constitution, said front has been joined by the student, workers’ and professionals’ movement, as well as by institutions and people who are against the government. It is predicted that this Front will be created in similar fashion in all States and Municipalities, incorporating the civil society, with the commitment of facing future elections with a sole candidate.

A FILE FOR THE FUTURE

Based on Trotsky’s ideas, in Venezuela we have the necessary conditions for socialisms. “Here we have the conditions, if we do not seize this historic moment, we will be making a mistake”. Such was said by Chávez on April 2007, when he was proposing the reform to the Constitution, concentrating all power in the presidency. The project presented before Congress was to this precise purpose, and was rejected by the country in the December 2nd referendum. Chávez insisted, and called for another referendum on February 15, this time achieving approval under the terms we have previously gone over in other Venezuela Today reports.

Now, in direct violation of what is established in our Constitution he orders Congress to pass a Decentralization Law which gives back to central power all faculties previously belonging to Governorships and Mayor’s Offices. Congress followed this order, regardless of the fact that article 164 reads: “The preservation, administration and exploitation of national roads and highways, as well as commercial ports and airports, are faculties exclusive to each of the States”. Congress passed another law which no longer allows Governorships access to the income from use of ports, airports and highways. Chávez, alleging compliance with the new law, ordered the military occupation of ports and airports of the States of opposition, measure which was executed with the aid of national guard and marines.

 Opposition governors and mayors jointly pronounced themselves against this Law of Decentralization passed by Congress and promised to take both street and judicial actions, without discarding the idea of an abrogative referendum. State legislators, members of Parrish boards, city councilors and national representatives, coming from 12 states within the country, all met together in what they called the Assembly for Popular Defense. The assembly agreed upon the goal of counterattacking centralization laws and actions, and its spokespeople declared that they will continue to meet every fifteen days to evaluate the compliance of their work agenda. “What we want is to counterbalance Congress, which has become dedicated to legislating against the regions, violating the Constitution. The members of Congress have betrayed their duties, since they have been chosen to defend the interests of the states and now they are mere servants at Chávez beck and call, he is their master”, said one of the Assembly’s members. This organism passed a Law regarding ports and airports administration which allowed Chávez to place military there, reserving the maritime terminal management for the Cubans.

Frequently press columnists wonder why people insist in taking their issues and complaints to the courts using the resources available to them in the Constitution, considering that there is no rule of law in Venezuela. The answer is that the powerful civic movement which rejects neo-dictatorship, has no other choice, but to use the Constitution as its shield. It is the basis with which one may fight, in order to never risk being called conspirators. It is a file for the future, since all the crimes with which Chávez is accused, do not prescribe. Going to international organisms has a similar purpose, it being known that Chávez does not comply with treaties regarding human rights and civic freedoms, to the point that a visit from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights  is denied, he does not comply with sentences from the Inter-American Court, he violently expelled Human Rights Watch, forbid the entry of Lech Walesa into the country, only to mention a few cases. The Socialist International (SI) decided to send a mission to observe the actions of political harassment towards the opposition. It is difficult for Chávez to reject the mission of the SI.