July 15th., 2009

Honduras, Chavez Declension?

What happened in Honduras raises a series of questions given the unusual nature of the situation. In fact, Manuel Zelaya’s attempt to convoke a referendum, disguised under the cloak of a “survey” that would convene a Constituent Assembly to seek his re-election, caused that the other institutions of power in that country, that is, the National Congress, the Supreme Court, The Prosecution and the electoral authorities will declare the unconstitutionality of that event and express prohibition. Before Zelaya’s refusal to obey these resolutions, the armed forces, alleging that the President at violating the Constitution has lost legitimacy, decided to arrest him and transfer him to Costa Rica.  Analysts agree that it is the weak point of the action against Zelaya. If prosecuted, the National Congress had the power to elect a new President. Therefore, we would not be compared to a typical Latin American coup d'etat, in which the military overthrew the elected president to appoint one of them as his successor. It was an act of government stated in the Constitution of Honduras.

Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga, Archbishop of Tegucigalpa and maximum head of the Church of Honduras has said "I do not think that Zelaya can return, since doing so could cause a bloodbath and the main interest of the Church is that no loss of human lives occurs”. In an interview with local media, he blamed Hugo Chávez for the crisis in the Central American country. "That man has been trying to get his hands here. He should leave us alone, and devote himself to govern his country and that’s it," he said in statements to the Honduran newspaper La Tribuna and El Heraldo, reproduced by AFP. It is an opinion that deserves credit, because the Cardinal would not expressed himself in such terms if not having the moral conviction that his word is confirmed by the facts. He also interprets a very important sector of Honduras, who challenges the return of Zelaya and settlement as ruler, nonetheless the ritual declarations of the international community.

The conversations held by Zelaya and Micheletti with Costa Rica's president, who acts as mediator, have not come to anything concrete. Mediation suggested by the Secretary of State of the United States of America, as the only way for a peaceful solution, has been welcomed by Latin American countries, except for those of Alba led by Chávez.

It is the third failure of Chavez in his claim of global leadership by exporting petro-socialism of XXI Century: the first was in Peru, when Ollanta Humala was defeated before Alan García, then in Panama, when its candidate Balbina Herrera was defeated by Ricardo Martinelli, and now, he failed his attempt to ensure that Zelaya was able to perpetuate in power, through a constitutional reform. All this plus the misfortune suffered by the Kirchners’ in the last elections in Argentina. Many analysts believe that this was due, in large part, to the rejection that Chavez produces in large groups. Changes loom in the geopolitical mainland.

THE STATE ENTERPRISES ALSO DECLINE

The oil basket came to US$60, according to official announcement. It is the price level estimated in the 2009 budget, which was reduced to US$40, when the regime finally accepted that Venezuela was not "armored" to address the crisis in the global economy. The actual production figures are a sort of state secret, but at the end of the first quarter of 2009, PDVSA, to comply with internal needs and external commitments, had to purchase more than 600,000 barrels a day from crude, distillates and fuels. Exports to U.S. constitute the main source of revenue in dollars, and according to numbers from the Department of Energy, in recent months purchases to Venezuela recorded a fall of 462,000 barrels per day. The debt of the oil industry amounted to $18,000 million, and the need for resources for essential investments and mandatory payments of overdue obligations, required the issuance of investment certificates, and placement of new debt bonds. To try to alleviate the serious financial situation, the upper management of PDVSA has sent communications to its contractors and service providers, under the pretext of requiring information on the amount of credits, and inquires them to grant a discount rate to those sums, thus leaving as evidence the precariousness of its accounting. These discount requests have been rejected by the majority of companies and arbitration has been demanded in several cases. All this combined with the high-conflict that exists with the oil unions, who were denied the opportunity to discuss the collective agreement, alleging the minister of Energy and Petroleum and president of PDVSA, that he will not discuss with unions enemies of Chavez, which seems strange, since the vast majority of the members of these unions were contracted between people who were related to the regime, after the mass layoffs of more than 18,000 workers, following the oil strike of 2002.

The petrochemical industry also presents a very cloudy picture, although Chavez's voice proclaims that the regime is taking firm steps to become a global petrochemical output. In 2008, the government announced investments of $20,000 million for the sector, but so far has put $100 million; while the debts of Pequiven with its contractors reach $5,000 million and the growth of its financial liability is 587% between 2007 and 2008. In Aló Presidente was said that in a period less than 5 years, Venezuela would become the largest producer of fertilizers, plastics and polymers in Latin America. Analysts say that this promise has its equivalent in the presidential oath that production of crude oil would reach 5 million barrels a day. The collapse of the petrochemical industry, though the recovery of oil prices, highlights the ineptitude in the management of industry and the outrageous corruption of those in management.

The iron and aluminum industries are fragile, so much so that after nationalizing Sidor, the largest steel company in the country, its production has fallen dramatically. For their part, workers in the aluminum companies took the streets of Puerto Ordaz, causing road closures, denouncing the serious condition in which they find Alcasa, Venalum, Bauxilum and Carbonorca and demanding purification of the managements of such companies. All this suggests that even if oil prices remain at levels of $60, those incomes will be salt and water for the incompetence and corruption.

OAS BEFORE CHAVEZ’S ABUSES

Antonio Ledezma, elected Mayor of Caracas by more than 720,000 votes, has been on hunger strike inside the OAS headquarters in Caracas, to call the attention of the double standard that uses that organization to deal with human right violations in the region. So said a Washington Post editorial, which reflects the haste of the OAS in demanding the return to power in Honduras of Manuel Zelaya, without addressing the threats to democracy led by Chavez against the opposition leader Ledezma, who the government has stripped of power and funding that are lawful. To that effect he has used the domain that exerts on the National Assembly, which has issued a law that violates the Constitution, without regard to the extreme injustice is no law, as pointed out by the European Court of Human Rights. But the abuse and threats of Chavez do not stay there, but extend to other governors and mayors elected by the opposition.

The attitude of the OAS has made several analysts to demonstrate the convenience of thinking very carefully on the usefulness of the Organization in this century. In many cases the most sensible countries refrain from openly contradict the radicals, for fear of being accused as "lackeys of the empire," and forget that the Organization's mission is not limited to defending the government, but also ensures democracy in cases of breach of its fundamental values and principles, which requires an ongoing and creative work of consolidation, as well as an effort to prevent and anticipate the very causes of the problems that affect the democratic system of government. Is Insulza ignoring that essential elements of democracy include respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, access to power and its exercise? Or that are essential components of the exercise of democracy, the transparency in government activities, probity, the full and effective exercise of the rights of workers, freedom of speech and press? Is it Insulza’s desire of being reelected as a General Secretary of the OAS, what has led him to throw the Inter-American Democratic Charter out to the garbage, and ignore human rights and civic guarantees enshrined in treaties signed by Chile and throughout Latin America ?

World public opinion knows that Venezuela is a clear violation of values, principles, elements and essential components to the exercise of democracy. No other way can be called the lack of separation and independence of public authorities, the prevention of access to the power of freely elected officials and their exercise, attacks on freedom of association, measures that restrict freedom of information, the threat of closing 240 radio stations, attacks on cable television and the ideology of education. The regime has removed the disguise of democracy, and the General Secretary instead of requesting the immediate convocation of the Permanent Council to undertake a collective assessment of the situation and take any decisions it deems appropriate, having occurred a constitutional disorder that affects seriously the democratic system in the country, prefers to look the other way.