July 31th., 2009

Crisis In The Relationship With Colombia

Announcement of war was Chavez's response to Uribe, who denounced that the guerrilla has acquired lance rockets on the weapon international markets and that his government presented the complaint across the diplomatic channels to the respective countries. The Vice President Santos was more explicit: "In various operations in we have been able to recover stocks of the FARC, we have found powerful equipment, amongst other anti-tank weapons that a European country sold to Venezuela and appeared in the hands of the FARC.” According to the Semana magazine, for two months Bogota informed Caracas the seizure of several AT-4 rocket launches. The newspapers report that documents in which FARC mentioned the collaboration of three senior officials of the Venezuelan government in delivering these weapons were submitted to Chancellor Maduro. In London, the magazine Jane's specialized in defense revealed that they were originally sold by a Swedish manufacturer to Venezuela. The Embassy of that country in Bogota confirmed that the serial numbers of the rocket launches are a lot sold to Venezuela by Saab AB Company. From Stockholm, the Swedish government asked Venezuela about a shipment of arms manufactured in Sweden and exported to the country, which was found in FARC captivity. Chavez responded that the accusations were an attack against his government, which led him to freeze relations with Colombia. "We will withdraw our ambassador in Bogota and our diplomatic personnel." He described the agreement by which Colombia will provide U.S. the use of military bases as a piece in a vast plan of aggression against Venezuela. "Uribe is an irresponsible that endangers peace in the region."  Chavez threatened to break down trade and economic relations and begin to expropriate Colombian companies in the country. The next day, the vice president Carrizales said that the freeze does not mean closed borders or prevent the transit of goods. The clarification of the vice president was clear: Colombia is, after the U.S., the second largest supplier of food to a country that produces only 4% of what it consumes.

Chavez anger was triggered when Colombia agreed to sign with U.S. Immediately and without knowing the terms of the agreement, Chavez decided the first freeze in bilateral relations.  What is Chavez looking for with this set-up of this new crisis in relations with Colombia? It seems to be evident that he is trying to close the page of the scandal of rocket launches and renewed accusations of cooperation with the Colombian narco-guerrillas. Speculations abound, including fear of the famous computer of Raul Reyes, showing evidence of his ties with FARC. Venezuela is in a state of boiling and Chavez always has in Colombia a letter under the sleeve to conceal critical situations. It is a dangerous game, since it is assumed that Uribe does not take it seriously when Chavez speaks of peace is at stake in the region. Will the actual game be effective to distract Venezuelans living in the drama?

THE SCENE IS HOT IN VENEZUELA

Boiling occurs when the pressure reaches a burning liquid to equalize air pressure and vapor bubbles, amount in the liquid and the surface to break violently. Applying the term to the mood of a society, it is appropriate using the word for the current situation. Besides the drop in confidence in Chavez, according to different opinion polls, the most significant is that the public protests that arise every day in the four cardinal points of geography are generated by militants of the chavismo. Until recently, the problems that occurred in the country were attributed to the government while the President was exonerated of all responsibility. The safeguard wall was cracked and people make Chavez responsible for the bad management of public affairs. It is a logical reaction, as he has been ten years in office. Reverses the “previous government” as a scapegoat for all ills, especially among youth, when looking back, they appreciate that "the previous government” is that of Chavez.

The solution that Chavez looks for is to radicalize the revolution in all aspects. He has the largest communications equipment that any Latin American government has taken so far. "Just walk a day by the group of free channels to see that 5 of these channels form a wall of media propaganda, which combined with the self-censorship of the private television almost make Venezuela a country of unique television, pro-government”, wrote an expert. Minister Cabello, Chavez spokesman, declared that the radio spectrum does not share the revolutionary project, and must be treated to deepen the revolution, which is why he initiated the process to take over 240 independent radio stations. The process is understood in the context of the closure of RCTV, the threat to do the same with Globovision, the penalty of vilification by imprisonment up to four years, the strike as a betrayal of the homeland and the strict application given to the “Gag Law”.

To the evident limitations to the right of information, there wants to be given a hint of supposed legality. In fact, the National Assembly will approve the figure of media crimes, "to regulate freedom of expression" said the Prosecutor, who was speaker for the law. Prison sentences are established for those guilty of the crime, which includes news causing "alarm or distress to the population." The law empowers the Prosecution to intervene telephones and mobiles without the judge permission. Also to give the appearance of legality, the National Assembly has provided criminalize protest. The opposition says that everything is due to the fear that goes beyond the outrage of the citizens by the regime's inability to confront problems such as crime,  which in Venezuela exceeds the rates of Mexico and Colombia; the rise in the growing cost of living and unemployment rates; deterioration of the communication channels; permanent cuts of power supply; the neglect to provide housing for one million people living in "shacks"; and are enraged by announcements gifts to Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua to resolve their problems; the tragedy in hospitals, prevented from addressing any deficiency; the disruption of food and medicine. The question is whether control of the media, the repressive laws of the protest and liquidation of weak spaces for information, are effective tools for changing the social boiling into an atmosphere of resignation and passivity.

 CHAVEZ FOREIGN POLICY

The Honduras case, where the Venezuelan government has bet strong, has severely injured Chavez, say the commentators who have followed the thread of the plot. They contend that statements made by key players of the international community, calling for the return of the Zelaya to the presidency are diplomatic rhetoric, and that the leaders of major countries of the continent breathe a sigh of relief at the fact that the Venezuelan president was unable to complete a quartet of satellites that turn around him. In the accounts of Chavez, his strategic allies, apart from El Salvador, Nicaragua and Bolivia, are Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Ecuador. In the first one of the mentioned countries, the Frente Farabundo Marti won the elections, helped by Chavez oil-checkbook, but President Funes is demonstrating that he will not compromise his country on the Venezuelan project. For Lula, he is a sympathetic character, but Itamaraty often organizes presidential trips to mark political distance. Venezuela is one of the best business partners, and Brazilian companies have enjoyed lucrative contracts awarded without competitive bidding, but Lula rather go to Davos that to one of Chavez. It is well known that Mrs. Kirchner cooling off, after her electoral defeat and the presence in Buenos Aires of Israel's foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, who told The Nation: "The interference of Chavez in the internal affairs of different South American countries, with his money and the financing of political campaigns in other countries, is a very negative influence. I think his intention is to exert dominance in South America. “The Jewish settlement in Argentina is very influential and Mrs. Kirchner does not want her friendship alienated. Uruguay has never compromised its independence and the relationship has not gone beyond beneficial energy and trade agreements. The Paraguayan President accepted Chavez’s invitations and proclaimed adherence to the socialism of XXI century, but the factors of power, including the senator, declared opposition to a foreign policy dictated by Caracas. In Ecuador, President Correa is apparently so faithful ally as Evo Morales and Daniel Ortega, but the press of the country strongly criticizes what they describe as "colonial policy". Patricia Janiot has interviewed for CNN personalities and academics from Costa Rica, who condemned the action of the Honduran military and support the proposals of President Arias as a mediator, but added that Zelaya’s success in his reelection project would have created a domino effect in the influence of Chavez throughout Central America.

In the chavista field voices emerge wondering about the consequences of failure in Honduras and new elements in the scene of their alliances. Dieterich, one of his closest advisers, said that Chavez main strategic ally in Eurasia is the government of Ahmadinejad, subject of post-election protests that show the division of the country and the elite that conducts in terms of his management as President. "The Iranian situation has a negative effect on Chavez international politics and in the soundness of his model." The director of the Israeli Foreign Ministry office said that Caracas offers false documents to the Iranians for traveling through the region, and that Hezbollah has cells in the Venezuelan border with Colombia and on Margarita Island. In the media show of Honduras the losers will be Zelaya and Chavez, analysts of Venezuela Today say.