August 28th., 2009

Chavez Confessions         

"Bestowing the highest award given by the Republic to the ambassador German Sanchez Otero, who for 15 years represented Cuba in Venezuela, is the recognition of merits that I have no words to extol," said Chavez in the ceremony of conferring the highest award the country gives, the “Gran Cordón de la Orden del Libertador,” to the outgoing ambassador in Havana. Furthermore, he told for 5 hours anecdotes, biographical data, some true, other products of his imagination, numerous references to Fidel Castro, all of which is important to highlight certain references which help to understand reality. In 1994, Chavez, after two years of frustrated military coup against a constitutional government, was pardoned by President Caldera, but still in conspiratorial activities. Sanchez Otero was not inhibited to contact him to convey the messages of Fidel, because since he came to the country became, in his words, one of their "major collaborators”. Before the recall referendum, the ambassador took over the coordination of the social missions ordered by Fidel in a so effective way that the help of doctors, athletes and all staff who arrived in Venezuela "enabled us to crush the Pitiyanquee oligarchy; his advice and guidelines, make German a protagonist of our revolution”. In the speech he repeated that he will break off relations with Colombia because Uribe and the Americans have decided to invade Venezuela and he is ready to repel aggression, together with the armed forces of his allies of the Alba. 

Apparently this is not a first-time circumstance, but it rarely is that explicit the recognition of the extension of the Cuban interference, not only in the orientation, but in the management of the so-called 21st century socialism. Chavez says his project and the Cuban model respond to two different historical moments. "We are not isolated, like the Cubans after the fall of the Soviet Union, and the structures and networks of global capitalism are present, but we set the rules, with strict monitoring and control of the State". For the analyst John Magdaleno, there is little creativity in what Chavez does, simply copying the Cuban model. He adds that by simply reviewing the Marxist literature one can understand the process of destruction of institutions that are replaced by a state increasingly bureaucratic and authoritarian, without pluralism, with a charismatic leader in the vertex direction from top to bottom, leaving some participation freedom for certain services and community problems. According to the analyst, the institutions which create values are schools, universities, churches, media, cultural world, science, technology and family. "The fund raised in the radicalization of Chavez is that he is trying to change the habits, customs, beliefs and values of Venezuelans. What lies behind is the Marxist approach to society. The Cuban model - says another analyst – explains the military presence at all levels of the chain of command at horizontal and vertical levels. They are everywhere, in and around public administration. "We are in the same situation where the Soviet communism or Chinese Maoist left us in the last century, that is, common nomenclature, a new leadership, and the power holders in this case mostly military”.

SHORTAGES AND STAGFLATION

“We are building the agrarian socialism to become an agricultural superpower,” Chavez said in Alo Presidente, broadcast from the Hato El Frio, one of the many expropriated farms for delivery to communities and cooperatives organized by the PSUV. He added that the world economy collapsed, but Venezuela has growing sectors, such as agriculture. For five hours he spoke of projects to transform the southwestern plains into a emporium of wealth, with emphasis on trials for rice cultivation. Before the Argentinean businessmen who accompanied Mrs. Kirchner, he said: "We are facing a low production period in some areas, which can be satisfied by you, and I guarantee you oil for the next hundred years". The Argentineans rushed to sign several agreements to sell rice, meat, sugar, but require immediate payment in dollars. Brazilian media reported that Lula sent a letter to Chavez requesting to expedite payments to exporters, who accumulate substantial delays.

Growth is over, is one of the headlines of a newspaper referring to the Central Bank statistics for the last quarter. Although the Central Bank figures are subject to suspicion of manipulation ordered by Chavez, these are an essential reference. The GDP at constant prices registered a drop of 2.4%, which alarms the experts given that such trend is evidenced after 23 consecutive quarters of growth. The President, when speaking about the economic issue, is betting that oil prices will once again exceed $100, solving the current problems. The Venezuelan basket reached last year to average $129 a barrel, but in February this year it fell to $30. "This is an extremely abrupt change, because we remain highly dependent on oil revenues", said Minister of Finance. The minister is concerned that for every $10 entering Venezuela, allowing importing the bulk of the items we consume, 9 comes from oil. "It's the vicious circle generated by oil revenues. We import because we do not produce, and we do not produce because we import". Analysts contend that there is no production because of the regime's hostility against the private sector, industries and farms occupations, price regulations and an exchange system that encourages imports and punishes exports, and in general, by the President's decision of “speeding up" the revolution”.

For 5 years Chavez has kept the dollar at 2.15 bolivars. The currency is overvalued. Surviving domestic products can not compete with foreigners. The demise of the rule of law, the absence of both legal and personal security and the President's fiery speech frightened foreign private investments. A scanning of the Central Bank as of the close of the second quarter evidences a weakened economy, with a significant fall in the GDP and high inflation. This disease, characterized by stagnation or contraction of GDP and rise in the prices, is technically defined as stagflation, and the consequences are often painful, especially for the poor. According to official statistics, more than two million Venezuelans live in extreme poverty. If we add to this that 40% of children in pre-school age are excluded from education and out of every 10 youths only 6 achieve to complete primary education, due to "economic reasons", the flags of revolution have been reserved for presidential rhetoric. Venezuela could be an agricultural and industrial power if it had properly invested $950,000 million of revenues over the past 10 years. 

 REFUSAL TO ALLIANCE WITH CUBA

Most intellectuals agree with Chavez that his project and the Cuban model respond to two different historical moments. The Cuban revolution was introduced by a bloody armed revolution against a military dictatorship. Chavez’s project has succeeded in controlling the public authorities but unconquered neither the will nor the submission of the majority. Western civilization values are more and more rooted every day. As he "speeds up" his revolution, people’s resistance acquires an impressive dimension, including a sector of Chavez followers, measurable but not yet visible. International agencies realized the 80,000 demonstrators that flood the streets to peacefully protest against the Law of Education (Ley de Educacion, LOE), an instrument that beside violating the Constitution, attempts to subject the universities and the education system to state control, no secret that the goal is the "new man" through the imposition of a single thought in the classrooms of all educational institutions. They outlined the assaults against students, women, the elderly, who tried four times unsuccessfully to break through using tear gas and stinging liquids. The savage outrage was led by a colonel, who was honored by Chavez the next day. Journalists saw people trying to recover in order to continue protesting, but a heavy rain finally finished the demonstration. A group of protesters are in prison "for disturbing public order". Every day throughout the country the protests against the LOE continue in schools and universities; in slum areas because the electrical system fails; roads are impassable; medical services do not work; new mothers give birth on the outskirts of the maternity where they have neither staff nor resources to deal with; in factories and state industries, workers and employees who claim for wages, collective agreements and demands unmet; journalists demanding the right to report; citizens protesting against the closure of radio stations. The demonstrations end with savage police repression and prison order, such as the case of the Prefect of Caracas, the second Mayor's authority, stripped of functions and budget, despite being elected by over 600,000 votes, in resounding defeat of the PSUV candidate.

Chavez, before traveling to Russia to buy more weapons and reaffirm strategic alliances, attended the UNASUR meeting in Bariloche, where isolation was pathetic basically because he only had strong support from Evo Morales. The president pro tempore, Rafael Correa, had his initial radicalism calmed after a rebuke from Lula, who said that the live TV broadcast could turned the meeting into an event where some presidents address to their voters, rather than discussing the issues on agenda. Uribe took delight in presenting evidence of Chavez’s protection to the FARC, his threats of military and politic intervention in Colombia and his military alliance with Cuba. When Chavez tried to refute, President Kirchner asked to limit interventions to the text of the final agreement and stop polemics of personal nature. Chavez, isolated and scolded, had no choice but to pose for the final photo and prepare suitcases for Uruguay, where he has ahead on him a new corruption scandal, for the acquisition of bibliographical material at $400 per unit, although their actual cost is six dollars each.