November 17, 2009

Chavez before the security council

“Let’s not waste a day on our main mission: to prepare for war”, Chavez said in an incendiary reference to the conflict with Colombia. He called on Barak Obama to refrain from an overt aggression against Venezuela by using Colombia. "The war of 100 years would start and it would spread across the continent”. According to newspapers of Bogota, the threat of war is "worrying" because it follows the violence of recent weeks and the mobilization of troops to the border, ordered by Chavez. The binational crisis is about to enter a new stage of internationalization, an editorial from El Tiempo. "They have rung alarm bells”. The Colombian Congress took the matter seriously, and called some ministers "to report on measures taken following the warmonger announcement of President Chavez”. In private session, the Congress wants to find out about the country's deterrent capability to prevent or repel an attack of Venezuela, and the air defenses and armored weapons that are available to Bogota before an advanced movement in La Guajira. The government urged the Security Council of the United Nations to study Chavez´s threats, for considering that they violate the UN Charter and undermine the peace in the region. The ambassador from Bogota to the multilateral institution delivered a diplomatic note to the President of the Council, asking that all country members know in detail the situation. The note also states that Caracas has refused to explain the killing of at least eight Colombian citizens in Venezuelan territory. Foreign Minister Maduro said that the motion to refer the case to the Security Council had been thoroughly evaluated and will have no effect, "it is the plan of a dirty war against our president”. Zulia Newspapers reported with graphic charts the mobilization of tanks, armored vehicles and self-propelled artillery to the military fort Mara, located on the border with Colombia. Newspapers from Bogota said it was another page in the warmonger Chavez´ file.

Threats hit internationally. The Brazilian Congress postponed the discussion of Venezuela´s entry into MERCOSUR, due to "its belligerent attitude". Marco Aurelio Garcia, the principal adviser to Lula's foreign policy, said that a non-aggression pact and joint monitoring of the common border, to which Brazil will help with technical resources is convenient. Chavez rejected the Brazilian proposal. In Madrid, at the suggestion of efforts for Rodriguez Zapatero to renew the Spanish provision to rule, El Pais editorialized and agreed, while reading out the fact that "the Venezuelan president has crossed the line, getting ready for war, and accusing Colombia of aggressive purposes”.

Chávez, in a rally of his supporters, said that the Yankee bases make electronic espionaje and “plan the way to neutralize our fighter planes”. Analysts wonder whether we are facing one of the usual tricks of the president to distract the population of the serious problems that affect it, or a dangerous geostrategic reality leading to provoke a continental conflict of great magnitude.

 CIVIL RIGHTS VIOLATION

The Venezuelan state admitted to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) that approximately 2240 people have been subjected to criminal charges for public expression to demand their rights. The statement was made by the representative of the regime in a hearing requested by NGOs in the country to the IACHR in order to denounce the criminalization of protest. He gave as reasons that Chavez must ensure peace and social security. The spokespersons of the most representative NGOs stated that between 2008 and 2009 there were 2893 peaceful demonstrations, that the Constitution establishes the right of citizens to demonstrate peacefully and unarmed, notwithstanding that it has been adopted a law criminalizing protests even if they are peaceful.  They also denounced the use of firearms and toxic substances on demonstrators, which are expressly prohibited by the Constitution, and that on several occasions, President Chavez has congratulated the police and National Guard when they have repressed or dissolved any expression of dissent.

In the course of this year NGOs registered 165 attacks on journalists and media. "2009 is the year of more violence against the press”. They warn that the immediate future is bleak, given that Chavez, in his speeches referred to the upcoming elections and calls to confront the “media conspiracy” of the Pitiyankee oligarchy that is trying to destabilize his government. The most frequent victims of attacks are the television reporters. The threats to life and personal integrity cover 46% of all cases, leaving three journalists dead. Most reported cases remain unpunished and the Prosecutor´s Office has instituted proceedings against 14 media or journalists, accusing them of damaging the reputation of public officials. The Constitutional Court decided that regarding human rights matters, national laws preempt international treaties signed by the Republic.

The general meeting of the Inter American Press Association (IAPA) held in Buenos Aires made public and gave support to the report presented by David Natera, president of the Venezuelan Press Bloc (Bloque de Prensa Venezolano, BPV), which alleges that Chavez continues his project of consolidating the communication hegemony of the government, to the point that he now has 731 available media: 238 radio stations, 28 television stations, 340 newspapers, weeklies and magazines and 125 websites, apart from radio and television chains, all devoted to ideological propaganda. "Venezuela lives in a permanent confrontation between the country's reality and what Chavez is trying to impose as the truth”. Natera also denounced the "phasing out" of independent media and gave as examples 34 radio stations off air, the threats to 29 more and Globovision television. He alerted to the proposal of a law of popular justice with criminal, civil, military and children jurisdiction, which grants to the communal councils power to intervene in the processes and sanction judges. The IAPA expressed concern about the emergence in the continent of measures and laws against freedom of expression, inspired by the Venezuelan example. The International Press Institute (Instituto Internacional de Prensa, IPI), based in Vienna, which groups more than one hundred countries, decided to send a fact-finding mission because of its "serious concern" about the situation of freedom of the press. The IPI Director said the mission aims to warn the government that the legislation, detrimental to freedom of expression which has been announced, contradicts international treaties duly signed by Venezuela.

 CHAOS OF THE ECONOMY

Economic freedoms are not only limited, but every day more restricted. According to the Index of Economic Freedom, jointly produced by the Hermitage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal, Venezuela was ranked 174 among 183 countries evaluated. The above institutions take into account, for the realization of the index, six areas of the economy: commercial, international, fiscal, monetary, financial and labor. They also evaluate the size of government, freedom of investment, property rights and the degree of corruption. Their data coincide with those of the Economic Freedom from Fraser Institute and the Institutional Quality from Policy Network. Analysts agree that the factors influencing the negative assessment of Venezuela are, among others, excessive controls, laws limiting freedom of investment, the lack of reliable institutions, corruption, continuous attacks on the rights of property (expropriation) and inflation.

Such scenario explains the sharp drop in private investment and its consequences. Experts say that the economy is slowing down rapidly and that the measures taken by the government are counterproductive. Chavez announced that the Central Bank (BCV) will directly finance agro-industrial projects, housing construction, manufacturing and other sectors. BCV president said that the agency will provide money for projects under the name of loans. They appeal to the dangerous trick of making Money, as the BCV unlike a common financial institution, do not receive deposits from individuals and businesses. The money made by the Central Bank when it is invested by those who receive, it is multiplied in the bloodstream, exacerbating inflation. A BCV ex-manager, supported by official data as to liquidity and base money created by the institution, states that payments are made of 2.67 Bs. for every Bolivar that is made by the BCV. He adds that part of the money that enters can go to the purchase of dollars, increasing pressure on the parallel foreign exchange market. "The best way to weaken a currency is that there is an oversupply of the same and few assets to be purchased, because prices rise and money loses its value”.  The opposition claims that Chavez has no awareness of reality and believes that with more money on the street and by selling imported food through the missions, generously subsidized, he may slow the growing deterioration that he confronts in the public opinion. "Nobody in his environment explains to him the catastrophe that means converting a factory of bills (money) into the engine of the economy”.

The 2010 budget that was finally passed underestimates the price of oil. Most international estimates placed the average price of WTI at $ 78 a barrel, which means $ 72 for the Venezuelan basket. The purpose is that surplus revenues can meet the many expenses that Chavez manages with his "checkbook" and the ones that he orders with additional credits. In the current year, oil income was insufficient for the volume of domestic and international expenses. The government compensated for the deficit by issuing bonds, not only by the central government but also by PDVSA, which faces serious cash flow problems. For the year end the total public debt amounts to one hundred billion dollars. "Chavez has been to Venezuela as one of the terrible tsunamis in the Pacific, of which path there is only desolation”, as concluded by one of our analysts.