January 31th., 2012

Capriles’ candidacy

Henrique Capriles, the governor of the State of Miranda, begins to look as the candidate that will be confronting Chavez at the presidential elections on October 7, as shown by polls and field work carried out in the first part of the month.  Capriles has focused his campaign into conquering the ‘’ni-ni’’ (the undecided and non-committed) that constitute a third part of the electorate and which reject the perspective of a new Chavez’s  presidency because of his inability in solving insecurity, unemployment and inflation problems.  These are very sensible issues for the people. The President of the Banco Central admitted that inflation might reach 30% at the end of 2011, by far the highest of Latin America. Insecurity has turned into anxiety for all since daily stories are heared of some friend or family that has been the victim of an assault, of kidnapping and many other types of crime. The government gives no information at this respect unless it happens to someone very important. The most recent case was the kidnapping of the Mexican Ambassador, Carlos Pujalte, and his wife. The Mexican government has demanded a thorough investigation to throw a light on the facts since another embassy official had been also kidnapped some time before. The diplomatic corps has been obliged to have bodyguards and to use armor-plated cars whenever they have to move about. The local press has reported that officials of the Saudi embassy, the military attaché of the Bolivian embassy, an advisor to the Chilean embassy and the Greek ambassador were all targets of the underworld. In all the kidnapping cases, their freedom depended on large amounts of ransom money; the comments are that the Mexican Embassy had to pay Twenty Thousand Dollars.

In regard to unemployment, it affects 50% of the economically active population, which fact resulted from a survey requested by a union federation. Official numbers, though, point out that these don´t even reach 10%, basing these numbers on persons who don´t have a formal job, such as street vendors for example. These individuals have no social security and their income is fortuitous because it depends on several factors that they cannot control, as, for instance, the climate.

The election of the candidate for the opposition will be decided at the primaries to be held on February 12, on which date all Venezuelan registered before the Electoral Registry will be able to vote. Five candidates are still competing and all have pledged to endorse the one with most votes and thus, becoming the sole candidate against Chavez.  At his Aló Presidente show, he said he had gotten into the ring and was waiting for the ‘’majunche (mediocre) candidate from the opposition, and the he will knock him down. All the pre-candidates have brought effective contributions to the campaign. Pablo Perez, Zulia´s governor, insists on the issue of decentralization; Maria Corina Machado demands fair election conditions on the part of the National Electoral Council, and supports the need of organizing the population to defend the results in case these are ignored. Ambassador Diego Arria and Pablo Medina constantly confront Chavez and if they win, they will convoke a Constituent Assembly to allow governability.

THE MILITARY AND THE CONSTITUTION

If the opposition wins, the new president´s priority will be that of guaranteeing the stability of his government and the Armed Forces will have a predominant role in it. A very difficult task, because in the end, it´s about substituting a military government for a civilian one, to which the statement made by the present Minister of Defense must be added, in that Chavez must continue governing even if the opposition wins. The minister has tried to pick up his words by adducing he was misinterpreted because what he really said was that the Armed Forces (AF) would acknowledge as president whoever the NEC proclaimed. The Government Program, suggested by the Democratic Union, proposes that the president elected on October the Seventh must turn the Constitution into his sword and shield. The Primary Charter stipulates that the AF is an institution, and professional in essence, with no political affiliation, subordinated to a civilian authority, at the exclusive service of the Nation and in no manner at the service of a person or political party. The new president, which authority derives from the people´s will becomes the new Commander in Chief of the AF, ‘’whose mainstays are discipline, obedience and subordination’’. If the military deny compliance to the Constitution, they would be carrying out a coup, in which case, the call for an insurrection on the part of the civilian forces would be legitimate, in their conviction that they would have the support of the military faithful to the Constitution, which the mid-level commanding officers (lieutenants, captains and majors) are part of and that are the ones that command the troops. Without meaning to sound like the prophets of disaster, it´s not so far-fetched to predict that the aspiration of opening ways to reach a different regime to Chavez´s one might turn Venezuela into a scenario of something like a civil war.

What would be the reaction of the international community? With all the serious problems presently filling its agenda, to attend to Chavez would become another one, and a risky one at that, since the regime has powerful allies in Brazil, Argentina, Cuba, Iran, China and Russia, to mention some. Nevertheless, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, thus, the perspective of a bloody conflict can be the cause of a great alarm.  President Barack Obama, in a recent interview for Univision, stated his commitment to democratic values, that he wished for ‘’improvement as to the relationship with Venezuela’’ but that ‘’unfortunately there is a tendency on the part of the Venezuelan government to use the US as an excuse for its failure regarding some of its internal policies as well as to cause trouble to its neighbors; we will continue to search for a diplomatic way regarding Latin America, to defend the values we consider very important: democracy, respect for human rights, respect for free speech, and to make sure no country interferes with the internal matters of other countries’’. This will create some tension with Venezuela, he added, ‘’but there are tensions we can manage’’.

The government program drawn by the Democratic Union suggests some policies to be developed by the new president. Firstly, the compliance to and application of the Constitution, since, as Capriles affirmed ‘’its enforcement is the best guaranty we can offer to Chavez, he is covered by the Magna Carta, drawn and amended by the NA, following his instructions’’. Those most interested in enforcing the Constitution ´´will be us, because its norms allow us to fully exert the powers that correspond to the Presidency’’.  The bestow of these powers on the president make him a sort of an absolute monarch, and synthetizes those that correspond to the Chief of State and Chief of the Government in parliamentary systems, besides turning him into the supreme commander of the Armed Forces. He may elect a vice president, who has similar functions as those of a chief of government in parliamentary systems, and may also remove it.

TWO MESSAGES, TWO STYLES

Capriles´ message emphasizes the offer of political, economic and social liberties that are the aspiration of all human beings within an open society. He considers that it´s an obligation for the state to promote private initiative, freedom of work, enterprise, commerce and industry, towards the development of the country.  In his statements he insists in claiming it is vital for the economic recovery, to have the right of ownership and to follow the norm that, only in cases beneficial to the public and for  social use,  can an expropriation of any type of assets, be carried out, and only after a final legal decision and the payment of a fair indemnification. Chavez´s message is contrasting. Last Sunday his Aló Presidente show was transmitted from Barinas, where he stated that he wasn’t satisfied in the least with the numbers of agriculture and livestock production and that this was the banks fault. ‘’I have decided that the banks no longer may grant loans to the agricultural and livestock sector and that the money corresponding to this portfolio be granted to the government that will in turn, give it to the Zamora Mission, and that the Mission will be the one distributing the money’’. He also said, mentioning by name, the presidents of Banco Provincial, Banesco and Mercantil, leaders of the private financial system, ‘’just tell me what is the cost of your banks and we will nationalize them once and for all, I am seriously studying this’’.

In the analysts view, the opposition has been advancing in its intent of giving cohesion, an organizational platform and criterion unity to a structure on which stands the project for the rescue of democracy. ‘’It has done this by rejecting imposition, exclusion, personality cult and ideological differences, which has resulted in a sole candidacy to refrain the danger of having a president who wants to remain in power indefinitely’’.

Chavez has been successful in transmitting his message on the impossibility of a political change and in planting the idea that confiscation of all powers and rights has reached the point of no return. We are certainly facing a man who is determined to die with the power in his fist, he sustains himself on a total absence of scruples in order to achieve an objective. It will not be easy, the campaign promises hardships, low blows and all types of opportunisms, but it is also true that never before had the democratic forces been in such good position and ready to present a fight’’.

In the end, the conviction that Chavez represents what constitutionalists call,   ‘’democratic dictatorship’’, a  regime traced on the one established by Fidel Castro in Cuba, will be decisive; besides, all opinion surveys show that 80% or more Venezuelans reject the instauration of a communist regime.